# CGCN Group — Full Site Context > Automatically generated from published, indexable CGCN pages, team profiles, and CGCN-authored insights. - Canonical site: https://cgcn.com/ - Generated: 2026-09-06T16:58:07+00:00 - Generator: CGCN Site Core 1.1.1 - Concise index: https://cgcn.com/llms.txt ## Core Pages and Case Studies ### Home - URL: https://cgcn.com/ **Summary:** CGCN is a strategic communications and public affairs firm helping organizations navigate policy, politics and reputational risk through advocacy. #### Where Influence Meets Discipline Certain & Steady in an Unpredictable World. #### We help clients craft successful strategies to shift public opinion, shape policy, and win regulatory debates. CGCN offers a full spectrum of services, all aimed at our clients’ success. We have every base covered by dedicated teams in strategic communications, lobbying and advocacy, and policy and regulatory affairs who provide clients the best information, intelligence, and analysis to achieve their public policy goals - Advocacy - Strategic Communications - Policy analysis ##### Advocacy Personal connections will always be important in the corridors of political power. Our extensive network covers those who make the decisions that determine whether businesses win or lose in Washington. We provide clients the insider’s view that reveals what’s really happening, and what’s coming next. [Learn More](https://cgcn.com/expertise/#advocacy) ##### Strategic Communications No matter the objective — whether protecting and enhancing brand reputation, shaping public policy, or managing crises — CGCN’s seasoned communications strategists are equipped to handle any challenge. With decades of experience in presidential and corporate public relations campaigns, our team utilizes the full spectrum of communication tools to ensure clients deliver the right messages to the right audiences. [Learn More](https://cgcn.com/expertise/#strategic-communication) ##### Policy analysis CGCN’s policy and regulatory consulting team not only knows the key decision makers in Washington, but also the substance of what they decide. Having worked in senior policy roles in regulatory agencies, the White House, and congressional committees, our experts can dissect and analyze legislation, regulations, and judicial opinions, and help clients understand what they mean for their bottom lines and the future of their businesses. [Learn More](https://cgcn.com/expertise/#policy-analysis) #### BY THE NUMBERS 24+ Partners 26 Years in Operation 108% YOY Growth 200+ Active Clients 8 of the past 10 Years named Bloomberg Gov Top Performer Our team of experts and strategists is led by 24 partners with decades of experience working at the highest levels of presidential campaigns, Congress, the White House, and regulatory agencies. [Our People](https://cgcn.com/our-people/) #### Featured Case Study #### Winning Tax Fairness for America’s Salons & Barbershops In less than a year, CGCN’s integrated approach accomplished what two decades of fragmented advocacy could not. [Learn More](https://cgcn.com/case-studies/winning-tax-fairnessfor-americas-salons-barbershops/) #### News & Insights The Firm Power Trusts [Get in Touch](https://cgcn.com/contact/) --- ### About - URL: https://cgcn.com/about/ **Summary:** Learn about CGCN Group, a Washington-based public affairs firm combining advocacy, policy expertise and strategic communications for consequential challenges. #### We help clients cut through the fog of complex legislative and regulatory debates, delivering clarity, certainty, and results. CGCN is recognized as Washington's preeminent Republican public affairs firm, specializing in [lobbying](https://cgcn.com/expertise/#advocacy), [strategic communications](https://cgcn.com/expertise/#strategic-communication), and [regulatory consulting](https://cgcn.com/expertise/#policy-analysis). In practice, that means advocating before policymakers, shaping messages for key audiences, and analyzing how legislation, regulation, and court decisions affect organizations. Our team of experts and strategists is led by 24 partners with decades of experience working at the highest levels of presidential campaigns, Congress, the White House, and regulatory agencies. #### What‍ makes‍ CGCN‍ the‍ right‍ choice? ##### We havethe relationships 1.To help mitigate political uncertainty, CGCN’s extensive network of congressional aides, agency officials, and grassroots advocates across the country, provides clients the complete picture of what’s happening, why it’s happening, and who’s making it happen. ##### We have the expertise 2.We not only know who counts, but we know what counts. We have a team of seasoned campaign, policy, and communications experts who have served in senior roles in government and political campaigns. Our team helps clients understand legislation, regulation, and the courts and how each affects policy and their bottom lines. ##### We Integrate
Lobbying with Strategic Communications & Policy Consulting 3.CGCN empowers clients to achieve their goals through an integrated government affairs offering, combining communications, lobbying, and policy consulting into a single, overarching strategy. This gives our clients a decisive edge, helping them anticipate, and prepare for, the inevitable uncertainty created by politics and constantly shifting news cycles. #### CGCN at a glance 24+ Partners 26 Years in Operation 108% Year-over-Year Growth 200+ Active Clients [Explore a CGCN case study](https://cgcn.com/case-studies/winning-tax-fairnessfor-americas-salons-barbershops/) #### An Identity Shaped by Time Each iteration reflects the firm’s growth—without changing its core. 1999 2000-2001 2002-2007 2007-2011 2011-2013 2013-Present The Firm Power Trusts [Get in Touch](https://cgcn.com/contact/) --- ### Expertise - URL: https://cgcn.com/expertise/ **Summary:** Explore CGCN expertise in advocacy, policy analysis, coalition building, strategic communications and grassroots engagement in Washington and nationwide. #### Expertise #### Advocacy In the power corridors of Washington, personal connections remain paramount, even in the digital age. Our extensive network of key contacts gives clients an insider’s understanding of policy and political debates. ##### Connections We have strong relationships on Capitol Hill, from leadership to rank-and-file members, leaving no stone unturned. ##### Communications & Media Clear and persuasive communications are essential in the social media age. Our strategic communications team targets key audiences and influencers, reinforcing the work our lobbyists do in Congress. ##### Coalition Building We work closely with all members of Congress because little happens without the rank-and-file. ##### Grassroots Deployment We operate inside and outside the Beltway, with trusted field teams in states and members’ districts. #### Strategic Communications No matter the objective—whether protecting and enhancing brand reputation, shaping public policy, or managing crises—CGCN’s seasoned communications strategists are equipped to handle any challenge. With decades of experience in presidential and corporate public relations campaigns, our team utilizes the full spectrum of communication tools to ensure clients deliver the right messages to the right audiences. ##### Campaign Management With decades of campaign experience, we run fully integrated issue-based public affairs campaigns, bringing together multiple stakeholders with seamless coordination to help our clients win. ##### Message Development We utilize a data-driven approach to craft messages that resonate with influential audiences like policymakers, investors, and targeted demographic groups. ##### Media Relations Our strong relationships and understanding of the media landscape, we ensure our clients' messages reach the right outlets to create the maximum impact. ##### Creative & Design Our team can assist with all your design needs including graphics, display ads, microsites, web videos, reports, one-pagers, and presentation decks. ##### Digital Strategy We develop content and distribution strategies to make our clients’ case online, effectively reaching targeted audiences across digital platforms and wherever they consume news and information. ##### Crisis Management Our partners help our clients navigate the toughest perception challenges and position them for long-term reputational success. ##### Coalitions & Grassroots Our team helps develop and maintain grasstops and grassroots coalitions that include key third-party organizations and stakeholders to be activated as part of public affairs campaigns. ##### Corporate Reputation We help our clients build their brands through an integrated communications campaign that focuses on telling a compelling story. #### Policy Analysis ##### Regulation When it comes to policymaking in Washington, regulations change from one administration to the next, and their impacts can make or break a business enterprise. CGCN’s team of regulatory experts helps clients sift through the bureaucratese that can obscure what agency rules and mandates really mean—providing knowledge that directly impacts to a company’s regulatory compliance and financial performance. ##### Legislation Regardless of whether Congress is divided or under single-party control, legislation can progress quickly. Knowing not only who’s drafting it, but why they’re drafting it, and what legislative text means is essential for companies from just about any industry. CGCN’s policy experts help clients understand legislative process, the substance of legislation, and how it affects their business operations. ##### The Courts Along with regulation and legislation, the courts can determine the ultimate shape and substance of regulations and legislation, including how federal agencies implement them and whether they stand or fall. Our experts help clients understand when and how litigation happens, what it means for regulatory compliance, enforcement, and their bottom line when it does. The Firm Power Trusts [Get in Touch](https://cgcn.com/contact/) --- ### Our People - URL: https://cgcn.com/our-people/ **Summary:** Meet the CGCN Group team, a roster of senior professionals with experience across government, campaigns, and strategic communications. #### Our People [Matt Rhoades Managing Partner](https://cgcn.com/team-members/matt-rhoades/) [Sam Geduldig Managing Partner](https://cgcn.com/team-members/sam-geduldig/) [Michael Catanzaro Chief Executive Officer](https://cgcn.com/team-members/michael-catanzaro/) [Tracey Schmitt Senior Partner and Chief Strategy Officer](https://cgcn.com/team-members/tracey-schmitt/) [John Stipicevic Chief Advocacy Officer](https://cgcn.com/team-members/john-stipicevic/) [Mike Nielsen Chief Finance and Management Officer](https://cgcn.com/team-members/mike-nielsen/) [Steve Clark Founder and Chairman](https://cgcn.com/team-members/steve-clark/) [Jill Hamaker Senior Partner and Chief Development Officer](https://cgcn.com/team-members/jill-hamaker/) [Tim Pataki Senior Partner](https://cgcn.com/team-members/tim-pataki/) [Tim Killeen Senior Partner](https://cgcn.com/team-members/tim-killeen/) [Peter Ventimiglia Senior Partner](https://cgcn.com/team-members/peter-ventimiglia/) [Ja’Ron Smith Senior Partner](https://cgcn.com/team-members/jaron-smith/) [Scott Riplinger Senior Partner](https://cgcn.com/team-members/scott-riplinger/) [Merrill Smith Senior Partner](https://cgcn.com/team-members/merrill-smith/) [Brad Wenstrup Strategic Partner](https://cgcn.com/team-members/brad-wenstrup/) [John Tanner Partner](https://cgcn.com/team-members/john-tanner/) [Travis Cone Partner](https://cgcn.com/team-members/travis-cone/) [Amber Kirchhoefer Partner](https://cgcn.com/team-members/amber-kirchhoefer/) [Alex Renjel Partner](https://cgcn.com/team-members/alex-renjel/) [David Weinman Partner](https://cgcn.com/team-members/david-weinman/) [Susan Griffiths Partner](https://cgcn.com/team-members/susan-griffiths/) [Sarah Gilbert Partner](https://cgcn.com/team-members/sarah-gilbert/) [Harrison Fields Partner](https://cgcn.com/team-members/harrison-fields/) [Katherine Scarlett Partner](https://cgcn.com/team-members/katherine-scarlett/) [Kelly Lange Partner](https://cgcn.com/team-members/kelly-lange/) [Amanda Horne Spino Senior Vice President](https://cgcn.com/team-members/amanda-horne/) [Mathilde Sharman Vice President](https://cgcn.com/team-members/mathilde-sharman/) [Keri McGill Vice President](https://cgcn.com/team-members/keri-mcgill/) [Kevin Norton Vice President](https://cgcn.com/team-members/kevin-norton/) [Liza Luter Vice President](https://cgcn.com/team-members/liza-luter/) [Brett Rees Senior Strategic Advisor](https://cgcn.com/team-members/brett-rees/) [Patrick McCormick Senior Advisor](https://cgcn.com/team-members/patrick-mccormick/) [Matt Hartwig Senior Advisor](https://cgcn.com/team-members/matt-hartwig/) [Anna Mikulska, Ph.D. Senior Vice President and Head of Analytics](https://cgcn.com/team-members/anna-mikulska/) [Janelle Gardner Senior Vice President of Operations](https://cgcn.com/team-members/janelle-gardner/) [Majeda Abu-Alghanam Executive Vice President of Advocacy](https://cgcn.com/team-members/majeda-abu-alghanam/) [Martha Miller Senior Vice President of Advocacy](https://cgcn.com/team-members/martha-miller/) [Tiffany Rose Vice President of Advocacy](https://cgcn.com/team-members/tiffany-rose/) [Andrew Gallimore Vice President of Advocacy](https://cgcn.com/team-members/andrew-gallimore/) [Julia Schofield Vice President of Advocacy](https://cgcn.com/team-members/julia-schofield/) [Morgan Spiro Vice President of Advocacy](https://cgcn.com/team-members/morgan-spiro/) [Kathryn Johnson Creative Director](https://cgcn.com/team-members/kathryn-johnson/) [Courtney Douglas Vice President of Finance](https://cgcn.com/team-members/courtney-douglas/) [Carolyn Bradford Finance Operations Manager](https://cgcn.com/team-members/carolyn-bradford/) [Lauren O’Donnell Director of Human Resources & Compliance](https://cgcn.com/team-members/lauren-odonnell/) [Dakota Meyers Head of Paid Media](https://cgcn.com/team-members/dakota-meyers/) [Michele Jarvis Director of Operations](https://cgcn.com/team-members/michele-jarvis/) [Risav Ganguly Research Analyst](https://cgcn.com/team-members/risav-ganguly/) [Charlotte Armistead Senior Associate](https://cgcn.com/team-members/charlotte-armistead/) [Kaity Barr Associate](https://cgcn.com/team-members/kaity-barr/) [Zoe Lyakhov Associate](https://cgcn.com/team-members/zoe-lyakhov/) [Madeleine Gray Associate](https://cgcn.com/team-members/madeleine-gray/) The Firm Power Trusts [Get in Touch](https://cgcn.com/contact/) --- ### Affiliations - URL: https://cgcn.com/affiliations/ **Summary:** View CGCN’s affiliations and strategic partnerships that expand our capabilities across public affairs, advocacy, and strategic communications. #### Affiliations #### 2025 Speaker Series CGCN, in collaboration with Breitbart News and the ALFA Institute, proudly presents an elite speaker series featuring some of the most influential power players in Washington and the Trump administration. This exclusive forum brings together the leaders shaping conservative policy and strategy—delivering insider insights, bold vision, and unfiltered commentary from the top ranks of America’s political and policy leadership. Past Events: Vice President JD Vance Scott Bessent, Secretary of the Treasury Lee Zeldin, Administrator of the EPA Sean Duffy, Secretary of Transportation Chris Wright, Secretary of Energy Doug Burgum, Secretary of the Interior Brooke Rollins, Secretary of Agriculture The speaker series will continue in 2026 #### United By Interest In our rapidly changing political environment, the traditional top-down approach is no longer good enough for businesses to achieve their public policy goals. Success requires broad coalitions and key relationships at every level. That’s why CGCN is proud to partner with United By Interest (UBI), the first bipartisan, majority-minority owned government relations and public affairs firm in Washington. #### CGCN Law CGCN, in partnership with Breitbart News and the ALFA Institute, proudly presents an elite speaker series featuring the most influential power players in Washington and the Trump administration. This exclusive forum brings together the architects of conservative policy and strategy—offering insider insights, bold vision, and unfiltered commentary from the top ranks of America’s political and policy leadership. #### CGCN Analytics From interpreting complex regulatory landscapes to delivering data-grounded strategic recommendations, CGCN Analytics applies unparalleled rigor and real-world impact to every engagement. Our experts combine deep legislative and regulatory knowledge with advanced quantitative and qualitative methods to turn complex data into actionable insight. Leveraging robust research frameworks, sophisticated analytics, and seasoned experience navigating Washington’s policy ecosystem, we help clients anticipate trends, assess risks, and shape outcomes with precision, ensuring every recommendation is evidence-based and tailored to influence the right audiences at the right time. The Firm Power Trusts [Get in Touch](https://cgcn.com/contact/) --- ### Case Studies - URL: https://cgcn.com/case-studies/ **Summary:** Explore CGCN case studies showing how integrated advocacy, strategic communications, and policy analysis turn complex challenges into measurable results. #### Case Studies See how CGCN brings advocacy, strategic communications, and policy analysis together to help clients navigate complex public-policy challenges and achieve meaningful results. Featured Case Study #### Winning Tax Fairness for America’s Salons & Barbershops For two decades, salon and barbershop owners sought federal tax fairness without success. CGCN helped turn a long-running policy challenge into a coordinated advocacy campaign with a measurable legislative outcome. [Read the case study →](https://cgcn.com/case-studies/winning-tax-fairnessfor-americas-salons-barbershops/) --- ### Winning Tax Fairness for America’s Salons & Barbershops - URL: https://cgcn.com/case-studies/winning-tax-fairnessfor-americas-salons-barbershops/ #### Winning Tax FairnessFor America’s Salons & Barbershops #### Challenge For 20 years, salon and barbershop owners tried and failed to secure a tip credit for their industry. Despite repeated efforts, Congress consistently overlooked them and their tax specialist consultant. Salon owners were required to pay payroll taxes on tips—even though those tips were given directly to employees. Unlike restaurants, which had successfully secured a tip credit in the 1990s, salons were left on the outside looking in. This inequity raised costs for thousands of small businesses, stifled growth, and made it harder for owners to reinvest in their people and communities. They turned to CGCN. In less than a year, CGCN’s integrated approach accomplished what two decades of fragmented advocacy could not. #### Strategy & Execution ##### Authentic Voices We began by putting real salon and barbershop owners at the center of the campaign. Their stories brought the issue to life in a way no white paper or tax memo ever could. Through carefully crafted testimonials and op-eds, we made policymakers confront the human side of the tax disparity: hardworking small business owners forced to pay an unreasonable tax on tips, a burden from which those in the restaurant industry are exempt. By elevating these voices in both Beltway publications and key district outlets, members of Congress heard directly from their own constituents. ##### Policymaker Outreach To complement the storytelling, salon and barbershop owners and employees called their lawmakers to make their voices heard, while in-person lobbying reinforced the message with data and legislative options. At every step, we kept multiple vehicles open—so if one path closed, another could advance the policy. ##### Modern Campaign Tactics We paired traditional lobbying with a complementary strategic communications campaign. Awareness ads reached both policymakers and their constituents, reinforcing the drumbeat of fairness. The hallmark of our approach was integration: lobbying, communications, and grassroots outreach all worked in sync, ensuring no opportunity was missed. ##### Lobbying & Relationships The final breakthrough required more than good arguments; it required trust. CGCN’s decades-long relationships on Capitol Hill allowed us to cut through legislative inertia and elevate this issue at the right moments with the right champions. Because our team includes former senior staff from Congress, presidential campaigns, and the White House, we were able to anticipate roadblocks, build bipartisan credibility, and deliver the policy message in ways that resonated with decision-makers. In an environment where many had stopped listening, CGCN ensured the beauty industry finally had a voice lawmakers could not ignore. #### Outcome After two decades of gridlock and frustration, the beauty industry achieved long-sought tax fairness. CGCN delivered in 11 months what others could not in 20 years, unlocking meaningful relief for thousands of small business owners nationwide. This campaign demonstrates CGCN’s unique ability to cut through political inertia, craft compelling narratives, and turn complexity into results. When others stalled, we delivered. - Language secured in the No Tax on Tips Act - Ultimately included in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), now law. - Additional win: businesses can expense the credit retroactively, not just going forward. --- ### News & Insights - URL: https://cgcn.com/news-insights/ **Summary:** Read CGCN news, policy insights, media coverage and perspectives from experienced public affairs, advocacy and strategic communications professionals. #### News & Insights Read CGCN memos and recent press coverage on the policy, political, and regulatory developments shaping Washington. #### Memos #### Press The Firm Power Trusts [Get in Touch](https://cgcn.com/contact/) --- ### Contact - URL: https://cgcn.com/contact/ **Summary:** Contact CGCN for public affairs, advocacy, strategic communications, or crisis support. Reach our team to discuss your needs. #### Contact CGCN For general inquiries, media requests, or information about working with CGCN, contact our Washington, D.C. office or use the form below. Address: 1307 New York Ave NW, Suite 600, Washington, DC 20005 Phone: [202.628.0028](tel:+12026280028) Email: [info@cgcn.com](mailto:info@cgcn.com) #### Get in touch Use the form below to tell us how we can help. Information submitted through this form will be used to respond to your inquiry. "*" indicates required fields The Firm Power Trusts [Get in Touch](https://cgcn.com/contact/) --- ## Team Profiles ### Alex Renjel - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/alex-renjel/ - Role: Partner #### Featured highlights - Former aide to Sen. Jim Inhofe Former senior aide for Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, where he helped pass multiyear transportation legislation #### Career history - Joined CGCN in 2020 2015 – 2019: Development and Operations Analyst, Transurban 2013 – 2015: Student, Master of Business Administration, University of Maryland 2007 – 2013: Transportation staff, Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works #### Biography Alex brings over a decade of experience working in infrastructure in both the public and private sector. He started his career for Jim Inhofe, then Ranking Member of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, where he helped create and pass the transportation authorization, Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century (MAP-21). Alex most recently spent four years in the private sector working for a global infrastructure developer where he helped the team initiate investments and develop strategic partnerships with private and public stakeholders to develop infrastructure projects. Alex brings a proven track record of aligning the incentives of different parties to create multi-stakeholder partnerships. This includes bringing together corporate strategy, third party investors, and multiple government bodies to deliver solutions. The native of Maryland earned a B.S. in physics and math from Roanoke College, and an MBA from University of Maryland’s Smith School of Business. --- ### Amanda Horne Spino - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/amanda-horne/ - Role: Senior Vice President #### Featured highlights - Former Staff Assistant to Leader Mitch McConnell Former intern at the Environmental Protection Agency Office of Public Affairs #### Career history - Joined CGCN in 2019 2018 – Oct. 2019: Staff Assistant Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) 2018: Intern at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Public Affairs #### Biography Amanda Spino is a Senior Vice President at CGCN Group, where she applies her expertise in public affairs to assist clients in navigating complex policy landscapes and communicating effectively with key stakeholders. Since joining CGCN in 2019, Amanda has played a crucial role in supporting advocacy campaigns and strategic communications for clients across various industries. Before joining CGCN, Amanda worked as a Staff Assistant in the office of Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), where she managed constituent services, coordinated military academy nominations, and oversaw front office operations. Additionally, she gained experience in federal public affairs as an intern at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Office of Public Affairs. Amanda graduated from the University of Kentucky with a degree in Integrated Strategic Communication and a minor in Communications. She currently resides with her husband in Arlington, Virginia, but will always call Kentucky home. --- ### Amber Kirchhoefer - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/amber-kirchhoefer/ - Role: Partner #### Featured highlights - Former Deputy Chief of Staff to Sen. Pat Roberts Experienced policy advisor in health care, appropriations, agriculture and trade #### Career history - Joined CGCN in 2021 2020: Deputy Chief of Staff, Senator Pat Roberts (R-KS) 2011-2019: Legislative Director, Senator Pat Roberts (R-KS) 2002 – 2010: Legislative Director, Senior Policy Adviser, Legislative Assistant, Senator Bob Bennett (R-UT) 2001 – 2002: Policy Analyst, Joint Economic Committee 1998 – 2000: Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem #### Biography Amber Kirchhoefer is the former deputy chief of staff to U.S. Senator Pat Roberts (R-KS), chairman of the U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee, and a 25-year veteran of the U.S. Senate. As deputy chief of staff, she was responsible for overseeing Senator Roberts’ legislative and political agenda. Prior to serving as deputy chief of staff, Amber spent nine years as Senator Roberts’ legislative director, working issues before nine Senate committees, serving as chief liaison to the Senate Finance and Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committees. Her experience includes passing the 2018 farm bill and biosecurity legislation. From appropriations to health care to tax and trade, Amber is well-versed in U.S. Senate rules and procedures and committee processes. Prior to joining Senator Roberts’ staff, Amber worked for U.S. Senator Bob Bennett (R-UT), serving as a legislative assistant with responsibility for healthcare. In addition to working in Sen. Bennett’s personal office, she also served as professional staff on the Joint Economic Committee and the Senate Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem. --- ### Andrew Gallimore - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/andrew-gallimore/ - Role: Vice President of Advocacy #### Featured highlights - Twice a former intern on Capitol Hill for Sen. Ron Johnson and Rep. Glenn Grothman Former Public Affairs Fellow at Hill&Knowlton Strategies, Brussels Former Government Relations Analyst at Boxabl #### Career history - Joined CGCN in 2025 2024-2025 Government Relations Analyst at Boxabl 2024 Legislative Coordinator at Poul Haas Government Relations 2023 Hill&Knowlton Strategies, Brussels 2021 Policy Research Intern to Senator Ron Johnson 2020 Legislative Intern to Congressman Glenn Grothman #### Biography Andrew Gallimore is Vice President of Advocacy at CGCN, where he drives advocacy efforts for the firm's Energy practice, working closely with clients to advance their policy priorities and shape strategy on energy-related legislative and regulatory issues. He brings extensive global experience in international relations, strategic communications, and government affairs. Prior to CGCN, Andrew worked in corporate government relations at Boxabl in Las Vegas, developing advocacy strategies, managing government contracts, and building ties with government officials. Previously, Andrew drafted policy briefs and memos and provided regulatory consulting for clients at public affairs firms in St. Paul, MN, and Brussels, Belgium. As a native Wisconsinite, Andrew interned twice on Capitol Hill for Sen. Ron Johnson and Rep. Glenn Grothman, gaining deep insight into federal processes and relationship-building. Andrew holds an M.A. in International Relations from Syracuse University's Maxwell School, including an Energy and Sustainability-focused graduate exchange at Sciences Po Paris. He also holds a B.A. in Political Science with a Foreign Relations emphasis from the University of Arizona. --- ### Anna Mikulska, Ph.D. - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/anna-mikulska/ - Role: Senior Vice President and Head of Analytics #### Featured highlights - Experienced policy advisor and thought leader on U.S. and international energy issues, with deep expertise spanning natural gas and LNG markets, European energy dynamics, and global energy security Engages with Congress through expert testimony on energy security, regulatory policy, and the intersection of energy and geopolitics Translates complex technical and policy analysis into clear, actionable strategies, drawing on a strong record of published work in academic journals and major media outlets #### Career history - Joined CGCN in 2025 2024-2025: Research Staff Member for the Science & Technology Policy Institute supporting White House OSTP 2014-2024: Fellow in Energy Studies, Rice University’s Baker Institute 2015-2024: Senior Fellow, University of Pennsylvania, Kleinman Center for Energy Policy #### Biography Anna Mikulska is Senior Vice President and Head of Research & Strategic Intelligence at CGCN Group, where she leads a dedicated research and intelligence unit focused on global energy markets, geopolitical risk, and regulatory strategy. With over a decade of experience at the nexus of U.S. and international energy policy, Anna advises senior government officials, corporate leaders and think-tank partners on the energy-security-technology interface. Prior to joining CGCN, Anna served as a Research Staff Member at the Science & Technology Policy Institute (STPI/IDA), delivering research on energy markets and technology policy to the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP). She was also a Fellow in Energy Studies at Rice University’s Baker Institute, where she co-directed the Energy and Geopolitics in Eurasia program, and a Senior Fellow at the University of Pennsylvania’s Kleinman Center for Energy Policy, where she led graduate seminars and supervised student research. Her subject-matter expertise spans natural gas and LNG markets, European government and energy-market dynamics, global energy security, and the governance of critical energy infrastructure. She has testified before the U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources, the U.S. House Committee on Financial Services, and the U.S. Helsinki Commission on topics including European energy security and rogue-state revenue. Anna is also regularly published in outlets such as Forbes, Axios, The Hill, World Politics Review and ENI World. She holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Houston, an M.A. in International Relations from the University of Windsor (Canada) and a Master of Laws from Adam Mickiewicz University (Poland). Anna is fluent in English and Polish, with functional proficiency in German, Farsi, and Russian. --- ### Brad Wenstrup - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/brad-wenstrup/ **Summary:** Brad Wenstrup is a former U.S. congressman, Army Reserve colonel, podiatric surgeon, and CGCN strategic partner focused on defense, veterans, and healthcare. - Role: Strategic Partner #### Featured highlights - Former Congressman who represented Ohio’s 2nd Congressional District for more than a decade. Leadership on national security, health care, and veterans’ issues. U.S. Army Reserve Colonel and combat veteran awarded the Soldier’s Medal for heroism. #### Biography Brad Wenstrup is a former U.S. Congressman (R-OH), Army Reserve Colonel, and Podiatric Surgeon known for his military service in Iraq (Abu Ghraib), receiving the Soldier's Medal for heroism (2017 Congressional Baseball Shooting), and his work in Congress on veterans' affairs, intelligence, and healthcare, retiring from Congress in 2024 after serving Ohio's 2nd District for 12 years. Wenstrup now serves on President Trump's Intelligence Advisory Board. --- ### Brett Rees - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/brett-rees/ - Role: Senior Strategic Advisor #### Featured highlights - Former Senior Executive at Northern Trust Current Managing Director and Wealth Consultant with Waldron Private Wealth #### Biography Brett Rees is an accomplished financial services executive and trusted advisor with more than 30 years of experience helping business owners, corporate executives, entrepreneurs, and boards navigate complex financial, strategic, and governance decisions. His career spans middle-market commercial banking, corporate finance, private wealth management, executive leadership, and board governance, providing him with a unique perspective on the financial and operational challenges facing privately held businesses. Brett began his career in middle-market commercial banking, where he advised privately owned companies on business lending, capital structure, cash flow management, credit analysis, and financing strategies to support growth, acquisitions, and expansion. Working closely with business owners and executive management teams established the foundation for his expertise in corporate finance, financial oversight, business strategy, and long-term value creation. Building on that foundation, Brett spent more than two decades in senior executive leadership positions within the financial services industry. During his 25-year tenure at Northern Trust, Brett held several senior executive leadership positions, including National Director of Sales for the Wealth Management Group, where he led national sales strategy, business development, talent acquisition, executive compensation design, and strategic growth initiatives across the organization. He later served as President of the Mid-Atlantic Markets and Regional Executive for the firm’s Outsourced Chief Investment Officer (OCIO) Advisory Practice across the Eastern Region, where he was responsible for expanding the firm’s regional presence, leading multidisciplinary teams, and advising successful business owners, executives, foundations and families on complex financial, governance, and succession matters. Brett currently serves as a Managing Director and Wealth Consultant with Waldron Private Wealth, where he advises closely held businesses, corporate executives, and ultra-high-net-worth families on sophisticated financial strategies, governance, succession planning, and long-term wealth preservation. Throughout his career, Brett has partnered with founders, owners, executive leadership teams, and boards of directors to strengthen financial oversight, corporate governance, financial controls, risk management, strategic planning, succession planning, capital allocation, ownership transition, and long-term enterprise value creation. He has extensive experience evaluating financial performance, conducting financial due diligence, assessing strategic growth opportunities, reviewing capital investment decisions, and advising organizations through mergers, acquisitions, and other transformational business objectives. Brett is recognized for combining disciplined financial oversight with practical business judgment, enabling leadership teams to make informed strategic decisions that strengthen organizational performance and create sustainable long-term value. Brett has demonstrated a longstanding commitment to fiduciary leadership and strong governance through his service on numerous nonprofit boards. He most recently served as Trustee, Audit Committee Chair, and Executive Committee member of Hillwood Estate, Museum & Gardens in Washington, D.C. He previously served as Finance Chair, Executive Committee member, and Advisory Board member of the Virginia Funders Network and has held board leadership positions with numerous educational, arts, human services, and community organizations. Brett earned a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from the University of Texas at Austin. Drawing on more than three decades of executive leadership and advisory experience, he provides boards and executive management teams with an independent perspective on financial stewardship, corporate governance, strategic planning, succession, financial due diligence, and the disciplined management of corporate assets to support long-term growth and shareholder value. --- ### Carolyn Bradford - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/carolyn-bradford/ - Role: Finance Operations Manager #### Featured highlights - Former staffer at Virginia’s Office of Transformation #### Career history - Experience in financial reporting, reconciliation, and contract management #### Biography As Finance Operations Manager at CGCN, I support the firm's financial and operational functions, including contract administration, invoicing, reporting, and internal processes that help keep client and business operations running smoothly. Before joining CGCN, I worked in state government, legislative, and political organizations, building experience in financial tracking, operations management, and data analysis. Most recently, I worked with the Commonwealth of Virginia's Office of Transformation, where I supported financial and operational reporting across more than 30 state agencies and developed reporting tools and dashboards to inform leadership decision-making. I also held several roles with the Michigan House of Representatives, supporting legislative operations, stakeholder engagement, and administrative management. I enjoy creating organized, efficient processes and using data to support informed decision-making. My experience includes financial reporting, reconciliation, contract and invoice management, project coordination, and process improvement. I earned my Bachelor of Arts from Michigan State University with a concentration in Law, Justice, and Public Policy and am currently pursuing my MBA at Arizona State University. --- ### Charlotte Armistead - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/charlotte-armistead/ - Role: Senior Associate #### Featured highlights - Former Foreign Service Officer at the Department of State Former Graduate Fellow at McLarty Associates #### Biography Charlotte is a Senior Associate on CGCN's Strategic Communications team bringing a strong background in public affairs and foreign policy. Prior to joining the firm, she served overseas with the U.S. Department of State and has held positions with the Middle East and North Africa practice at McLarty Associates, the U.S. House of Representatives, and several Washington foreign policy institutions. Charlotte holds an M.S. in Foreign Service from Georgetown University's Walsh School of Foreign Service and a B.A. in Arabic and International Studies from the University of Mississippi. --- ### Courtney Douglas - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/courtney-douglas/ - Role: Vice President of Finance #### Featured highlights - Former Brokerage Investment Professional at Vanguard Manages CGCN’s finances and accounting process Expertise in a variety of administrative duties, including scheduling and coordinating meetings for partners and clients #### Career history - Joined CGCN in 2018 2018 – 2019: Office Manager, CGCN Group 2017 – 2018: Brokerage Investment Professional, Vanguard 2016: Congressional Intern, Rep. Randy Neugebauer (R-TX) 2015: Campaign Intern, Hal Parrish for Virginia State Senate #### Biography Courtney is a jack-of-all trades at CGCN. She oversees CGCN’s finances and accounting process, schedules and coordinates meetings for partners and clients, conducts Hill outreach, and manages the CGCN PAC. Prior to joining the team, Courtney was a brokerage investment professional for Vanguard, where she worked directly with clients to discuss their asset allocation and help meet their investment goals. Courtney also brings extensive congressional and political experience to the CGCN team, having interned for Congressman Randy Neugebauer (R-TX) and volunteered on the Virginia State Senate campaign of Hal Parish. Courtney is a dean’s list graduate of Clemson University with a Bachelor of Science in International Business Management with a minor in Global Politics. --- ### Dakota Meyers - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/dakota-meyers/ - Role: Head of Paid Media #### Featured highlights - Former Director of Media Buying and Research at Koch Industries. Personally managed more than a quarter of a billion dollars in media placements on behalf of political, B2B, and B2C/e-commerce clients. Has held roles at a multitude of policy, branding, e-commerce, and other types of advertising agencies. #### Career history - Former Director of Media Buying and Research at Koch Industries Personally managed more than a quarter of a billion dollars in media placements on behalf of political, B2B, and B2C/e-commerce clients. More than a decade of experience in the advertising industry. Has held roles at a multitude of policy, branding, e-commerce, and other types of advertising agencies. #### Biography Dakota Meyers has personally managed more than a quarter of a billion dollars in media placements on behalf of political, B2B, and B2C/e-commerce clients. He has more than a decade of experience in the advertising industry, working in many different roles and functions. Prior to CGCN, Dakota was the Director of Media Buying and Research at the multinational conglomerate Koch Industries, where he oversaw paid media efforts for both its corporate brand and its subsidiaries. Prior to joining Koch Industries, held roles at a multitude of policy, branding, e-commerce, and other types of advertising agencies. --- ### David Weinman - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/david-weinman/ - Role: Partner #### Featured highlights - Experience leading and working on Senatorial, Gubernatorial and Presidential campaigns across the country. Former Senior Advisor to Maryland Governor Larry Hogan, ran his 2024 campaign for U.S. Senate. Lead communications for a gubernatorial campaign and developed comms strategy for the Republican Governors Association in 12 key races in 2018 #### Career history - Ran political operations for Maryland Governor Hogan Led communications for the Republican Governors Association in the 2018 cycle for 12 key races Worked in the War Room of Governor Christie’s presidential campaign #### Biography David Weinman brings more than a decade of experience leading high-impact strategic communications, advocacy, and political operations to CGCN. Most recently, he served as campaign manager for Maryland Governor Larry Hogan’s U.S. Senate campaign and led his political team throughout Hogan's second term — overseeing a 40+ professionals and a $20 million budget. Weinman has led communications strategy for campaigns across the country, including for the Republican Governors Association on 12 races during the 2018 cycle. Weinman began his career in high-stakes rapid response environments, including in the War Room of Governor Chris Christie's presidential campaign and as a Senior Research Analyst at the public affairs firm Delve. --- ### Harrison Fields - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/harrison-fields/ **Summary:** Harrison Fields is a partner at CGCN Group and former White House spokesperson specializing in strategic communications and public affairs. - Role: Partner #### Featured highlights - Former Principal Deputy Press Secretary and Special Assistant to the President in the Trump Administration Former White House spokesperson, presidential writer, and Assistant Press Secretary Former Communications Director and Senior Advisor to Congressman Byron Donalds (R-FL) #### Career history - Joined CGCN in 2025 2025: Served as Special Assistant to the President and Principal Deputy Press Secretary in President Trump’s administration 2024: Acted as Surrogate and Presidential Transition Sherpa, Trump-Vance Campaign 2021: Served as Communications Director and Senior Advisor to Congressman Byron Donalds (R-FL) 2020: Served as Assistant Press Secretary in President Trump’s administration 2019: Worked as Presidential Writer in President Trump’s administration 2018: Worked as Communications Aide to Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi #### Biography Harrison Fields has built his career at the highest levels of state and federal government, amassing nearly a decade of experience in political communications and strategic messaging. Most recently, he served as Principal Deputy Press Secretary and Special Assistant to the President in the Trump Administration, where he was one of the President’s most senior communicators. In this role, he worked closely with the Secretaries of Treasury, Education, Energy, Housing and Urban Development, the Attorney General, and the Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, helping to lead messaging strategy for major legislation, presidential executive orders, and administration policies. During the Trump-Vance campaign, he was entrusted with key responsibilities on the presidential campaign and transition, serving as both a Sherpa and national surrogate. In these roles, he carried the administration’s message across national and state media while playing an integral part in establishing the incoming administration. In President Trump’s first administration, Harrison served as a White House spokesperson, presidential writer, and Assistant Press Secretary, shaping and advancing the President’s priorities through disciplined and effective communications. On Capitol Hill, Harrison held senior roles as Communications Director and Senior Advisor to Congressman Byron Donalds (R-FL), while also advising the Congressman’s campaign. Earlier in his career, he served as a communications aide to Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi. Across these roles, Harrison has consistently been entrusted with shaping messaging on the most complex and consequential issues in national and state politics. He has advised top leaders through high-profile crises, legislative battles, and policy rollouts—earning a reputation for strategic insight, media savvy, and disciplined execution. His ability to craft compelling narratives, anticipate political challenges, and provide trusted counsel at the highest levels underscores his standing as one of Washington’s most effective and experienced communicators. Harrison lives in Northern Virginia and is married with a daughter. --- ### Janelle Gardner - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/janelle-gardner/ - Role: Senior Vice President of Operations #### Featured highlights - Over a decade of experience inside the federal government, both in Congress and the Executive branch Served as a key member of President Trump’s beachhead team facilitating the transition at the Department of Labor #### Career history - Joined CGCN in 2017 2017: Director of Scheduling, U.S. Department of Labor 2013 – 2016: Director of Coalitions & Member Services, House Education & Workforce Committee 2010 – 2013: Scheduler, Congressman John Kline, Chairman, House Education & Workforce Committee (R-MN) 2005 – 2010: Congressional Scheduler #### Biography Janelle Gardner comes to CGCN with over a decade of experience inside the federal government, serving in roles both in Congress and the Executive branch. Most recently, Gardner was one of the few key members of the President’s beachhead team facilitating the transition at the Department of Labor, laying the groundwork for the President-elect’s agenda before being tapped as the Director of Scheduling for Secretary Acosta, managing a team and the secretary’s daily logistics. Prior to her service in the Trump Administration, Gardner directed Coalitions and Member Services for the House Education and Workforce Committee under Chairman John Kline, where she was the first point of contact for congressional offices and outside organizations. There she contributed to the success of a number of legislative initiatives, organized congressional delegation trips, worked closely with congressional leadership, and developed crucial partnerships inside and outside the beltway. Before joining the committee, Gardner led scheduling and administrative operations for three prominent Members of Congress. She started her career on Capitol Hill in 2005 and scheduled for two other Congressmen before joining Chairman Kline’s office in 2010 as the Director of Scheduling. --- ### Ja’Ron Smith - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/jaron-smith/ - Role: Senior Partner #### Featured highlights - Executive Director of the Center for Advancing Opportunity Deputy Assistant to President Donald Trump Director of Urban Affairs/Revitalization & Special Assistant for Domestic Policy to President Donald Trump #### Career history - Executive Director of the Center for Advancing Opportunity Deputy Assistant to President Donald Trump Director of Urban Affairs/Revitalization & Special Assistant for Domestic Policy to President Donald Trump #### Biography Ja’Ron Smith is a policy expert experienced in advocacy, legislating, and policy strategy and negotiation. He specializes in advising clients on a range of issues including regulatory affairs, economic mobility, social justice, finance, banking, and housing and urban development. Ja’Ron recently served as the Executive Director of the Center for Advancing Opportunity at Thurgood Marshall College Fund, which aims to move people living in fragile communities from promise to prosperity by developing research-based solutions to pressing issues such as education, entrepreneurship, criminal justice, and overall economic conditions. Prior to CAO, Smith was working with the Trump Administration as the highest and longest ranking African American advisor, serving in a number of roles. Most recently, he served as Deputy Assistant to the President for Domestic Policy and Deputy Director of the White House Office of American Innovation, where he played a key role in developing the previous domestic policies and has been a driving force in passing legislation aimed at helping the African American community. Ja’Ron’s portfolio during his time at the White House included a wide range of issues, including criminal justice reform, immigration, re-entry, economic revitalization of distressed communities, opportunity zones, infrastructure, trade, economic growth and job creation, and HBCU initiatives. He previously served as a Special Assistant to the President for Legislative Affairs and was the President’s liaison to the United States House of Representatives Ways and Means Committee, Agriculture Committee, Education and Workforce Committee, Homeland Security Committee, Congressional Black Caucus, and Congressional Hispanic Caucus. Prior to serving as the Special Assistant to the President in the Office of Legislative Affairs, he served as the President’s Director of Urban Affairs and Revitalization, where he was a chief policy strategist and manager of HBCU initiatives, crime and reentry, and the White House Faith and Opportunity Initiative. Before the President began his term in office, Smith also served both Houses of Congress, and played a key role in seeking additional funding for Howard University to mitigate the energy crisis faced by the University in 2018. Ja’Ron Smith has been a longtime advocate for economic development, crime prevention, entrepreneurship, and workforce development, and was awarded the 2020 Bipartisan Justice Award. he is a graduate of Howard University School of Business and Howard University School of Divinity and is an ordained minister in the Universal Life Church. He also serves as a Senior Fellow with Right on Crime and Founder of Public Safety Solutions for America. --- ### Jill Hamaker - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/jill-hamaker/ - Role: Senior Partner and Chief Development Officer #### Featured highlights - Seasoned government and public affairs professional with over a decade of corporate experience and trusted relationships across the US Government and private sector. Deep policy expertise in pandemic and public health preparedness, vaccines, SUD/OUD, and infectious diseases. Extensive background in politics, including raising tens of millions of dollars for campaigns and committees for numerous Members of Congress. #### Biography Jill Hamaker is a seasoned government and public affairs professional with over two decades of experience and trusted relationships across the US Government and the private sector. The Hill newspaper recognized her as a “Top Lobbyist.” Previously she was Vice President and Head of Federal Government Affairs at Emergent BioSolutions, a life sciences company working to address global public health threats. Hamaker built and led the team that developed and implemented strategies to advance the company’s federal government affairs efforts, focused on driving engagement with both the Administration and Capitol Hill. Jill has deep policy expertise in many subject matter areas, including pandemic and public health preparedness, vaccines, Substance Use Disorder/Opioid Use Disorder (SUD/OUD), and infectious diseases. Hamaker has used her sharp instincts and highly strategic approach to build meaningful partnerships across stakeholders, including government agencies, trade associations, advocacy groups and think tanks. She has built and implemented holistic, highly-targeted, successful public affairs campaigns to deliver critical policy-oriented results. Hamaker has an extensive background in politics, having started her career in California state, local and federal elections. After moving to Washington, DC, in the mid-2000s, she consulted for numerous Members of Congress, raising tens of millions of dollars for both campaigns and committees. She serves on the Board of Directors of Mothers Against Prevention of Drug Abuse, and RightNOW, a nonprofit focused on connecting, engaging and promoting female leaders and mobilizing the next generation of trailblazers and influencers. --- ### John Stipicevic - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/john-stipicevic/ - Role: Chief Advocacy Officer #### Featured highlights - Former Deputy Chief of Staff to Leader Kevin McCarthy for Floor Operations and Member Services Former Director of Floor Operations to then Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy Former floor aide to then Majority Whip Roy Blunt and Minority Whip Eric Cantor #### Career history - Joined CGCN in 2016 2014 – 2015: Deputy Chief of Staff for Floor and Member Services, Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) 2009 – 2011: Floor Assistant, Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA) 2007 – 2009: Staff Assistant, Deputy Scheduler, Floor Assistant, Sen. Roy Blunt (R-MO) #### Biography John Stipicevic understands the inner-workings of the House floor – and what it takes to pass or stop legislation – as well as anyone in Washington. He spent nearly a dozen years in the Capitol, most recently as a top aide to House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy. He helped party leaders and chairmen craft legislative strategies and count votes, as well as playing key roles in a number of contested leadership races. Recognized as a “Top Lobbyist” by The Hill newspaper, Stipicevic spent a decade at the center of every major issue before the House of Representatives. He was a member of the whip operations under Rep. McCarthy and his predecessors, former Virginia Rep. Eric Cantor and former Missouri Rep. Roy Blunt. During Stipicevic’s time in the House, few aides developed such close ties to members of Congress. “He knows the make-up of each member,” McCarthy said. In a testament to his goodwill on both sides of the aisle, House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer also praised Stipicevic on the floor. --- ### John Tanner - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/john-tanner/ - Role: Partner #### Featured highlights - Former Deputy Staff Director at the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources with then-Ranking Member John Barrasso Former Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for Fish and Wildlife and Parks at the Department of the Interior Former Legislative Director for then-Senator Orrin G. Hatch #### Biography John Tanner comes to CGCN after working in government for more than twenty-one years, including eighteen years on Capitol Hill and three years at the Department of the Interior. Most recently, he served as Deputy Staff Director for the Minority at the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources for then-Ranking Member John Barrasso (R-WY), overseeing legislative activity in the Senate related to the Department of the Interior and the Forest Service. John worked at the Department of the Interior from 2017 to 2021. At Interior, he was the Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for Fish and Wildlife and Parks where he oversaw the operations and budgets of the Fish and Wildlife Service and the National Park Service. He also served as a Senior Advisor to the Secretary of the Interior with the specific responsibility of managing the Senate confirmation of the Secretary the Interior. He also managed other confirmations, including the Solicitor; the Assistant Secretary for Policy, Management and Budget; and the Assistant Secretary for Fish and Wildlife and Parks. --- ### Julia Schofield - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/julia-schofield/ - Role: Vice President of Advocacy #### Featured highlights - Former Fundraising Intern at CC Onnen LLC Former Client Success Manager at Trailmapper #### Biography Julia Schofield is Vice President of Advocacy at CGCN, bringing a strong background in political strategy, client relations, and event coordination. Prior to joining the firm, Julia served as a Client Success Manager at Trailmapper, where she coached national political candidates, helping them surpass campaign fundraising targets. She led major-donor fundraising sessions, offered strategic insights, conducted in-depth donor research, and optimized fundraising approaches through data-driven strategies. Julia also interned at CC Onnen, LLC, where she played an instrumental role in organizing high-profile fundraising events that collectively raised over $4 million for congressional candidates. Her work involved drafting campaign briefings, designing press materials, managing donor invitations, and conducting detailed research through platforms like CMDI. Julia also graduated the University of Miami with a Bachelor of Science in Communication, majoring in Public Relations and Political Science. --- ### Kaity Barr - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/kaity-barr/ - Role: Associate #### Featured highlights - Joined CGCN in 2026 2025 – 2026: Legislative Correspondent and Communications Assistant, Office of Congressman Russ Fulcher (ID-01) 2024: Customer Experience Intern, Disney World 2024: Congressional Intern, Congresswoman Cathy McMorris Rodgers (WA-05) #### Biography Kaity Barr, Associate at CGCN, has experience in congressional communications, legislative outreach, and public policy. Prior to joining the firm, she worked as a Legislative Correspondent and Communications Assistant for Congressman Russ Fulcher (ID-01), who served on the House Energy and Commerce and House Natural Resources Committees. In this role, she drafted and managed formal correspondence, assisted with press materials and digital communications, and helped translate complex policy issues for a broad range of audiences. Her work covered policy areas including energy, natural resources, critical minerals, and federal lands. Kaity also managed legislative portfolios including foreign affairs, intelligence, national security, FISA, and international trade. She began her career on Capitol Hill as a congressional intern and graduated cum laude from Whitworth University in 2024 with B.A. degrees in International Studies and Spanish. She is currently pursuing a graduate degree in National Security and Intelligence from the Bush School of Government and Public Service in Washington, D.C. --- ### Katherine Scarlett - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/katherine-scarlett/ - Role: Partner #### Featured highlights - Former Chairman to President Trump at the White House Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) Former Senior Professional Staff at the United States Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works (EPW) Former Special Assistant to the Chairman and Deputy Associate Director for Infrastructure Former Chief of Staff at the Federal Permitting Improvement Steering Council #### Career history - Joined CGCN in 2026 2025-2026: Chairman of White House Council on Environmental Quality 2025-2025: Chief of Staff, White House Council on Environmental Quality 2021-2025: Senior Professional Staff, US Senate Committee on Environment & Public Works 2020: Chief of Staff, Federal Permitting Improvement Steering Council 2018-2020: Deputy Associate Director for Infrastructure, White House Council on Environmental Quality 2017-2018: Special Assistant to the Chair, White House Council on Environmental Quality #### Biography Katherine Scarlett comes to CGCN with almost a decade of experience in federal permitting and environmental policy. Most recently, Scarlett served as President Trump’s Chairman at the White House Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ). Under her leadership, CEQ coordinated new agency procedures for implementing the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) for more than 60 departments and agencies across the Federal government. She also led implementation of the President’s Memorandum on Updating Permitting Technology for the 21st Century. Prior to being confirmed as Chairman, Scarlett served as Chief of Staff at CEQ. She also worked as Senior Professional Staff at the United States Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works (EPW) under Ranking Member Shelley Moore Capito, covering a range of issues including permitting, wildlife, conservation, and economic development. During her time at EPW, she demonstrated strong expertise in environmental policy and worked on a number of bipartisan bills that became law, such as the Surface Transportation Reauthorization of 2021, the America’s Conservation Enhancement Act of 2024, and the Economic Development Reauthorization Act of 2024. During President Trump’s first term, Scarlett started her federal service at CEQ as Special Assistant to the Chairman and Deputy Associate Director for Infrastructure. In that role, Scarlett led implementation of the President’s interagency coordination for major infrastructure projects and worked to align agency policies to streamline permitting decisions. She also was the first-ever Chief of Staff at the Federal Permitting Improvement Steering Council where she coordinated the permitting schedules for large-scale critical infrastructure projects across the country. An Ohio native, Scarlett is a graduate of Ohio University with a B.S. in Organizational Communication. --- ### Kathryn Johnson - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/kathryn-johnson/ - Role: Creative Director #### Featured highlights - Former Associate Creative Director at Purple Strategies Strategic creative leader with 10+ years of experience shaping campaigns for Fortune 100 brands, government, and nonprofits. Award-winning work recognized by The One Show, ADDYs, and Pollie Awards. #### Career history - 2025: Joined CGCN 2017-2025: Designed campaigns to help Fortune 100 companies address their toughest reputation challenges at Purple Strategies 2015-2016: Launched the FDA’s nationwide campaign against smokeless tobacco at Sensis 2015: Worked on a variety of materials for the CDC, FDA and USAID among others at FHI 360 2013-2015: Led the most successful female recruitment campaign for the U.S. Border Patrol at IMS Advertising 2009-2012: Designed integrated advertising campaigns at PeakBiety branding + advertising #### Biography Kathryn Johnson is an award-winning creative director and designer known for turning complex challenges into compelling visual solutions. She brings over a decade of experience leading concept, design, and execution across both traditional and digital media—shaping campaigns for Fortune 100 companies, government agencies, and nonprofits. Fascinated by the intersection of design, psychology, and culture, Kathryn approaches every project as a visual challenge waiting to be solved. Her work has been recognized by The One Show, Pollie Political Advertising Awards, ADDYs and has been featured in national advertising conferences and design publications. A Florida native, Kathryn earned her degree in Advertising Design from the Savannah College of Art & Design (SCAD). --- ### Kelly Lange - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/kelly-lange/ - Role: Partner #### Featured highlights - represents pharmaceutical and biotechnology clients on legislative issues before the U.S. Congress and on regulatory matters before the Department of Health and Human Services Founder, The East End Group Former Health Policy Specialist at Foley Hoag LLP Former Policy Advisor to Congressman Mike Rogers of Michigan #### Biography Kelly Childress Lange represents pharmaceutical and biotechnology clients on legislative issues before the U.S. Congress and on regulatory matters before the Department of Health and Human Services. She has specific expertise in biodefense and related health security issues, providing counsel to clients from early product development through FDA approval and Federal procurement. Prior to founding the East End Group, Kelly served as Health Policy Specialist at Foley Hoag LLP, where she founded the firm’s Biodefense and Pandemic Preparedness practice and worked within the Life Sciences Government Strategies group. Her work there included strategic regulatory counseling, legislative advocacy, and advising clients on navigating complex administrative and legislative processes. Earlier in her career, Kelly served as Policy Advisor to Congressman Mike Rogers of Michigan, where she played a key role in drafting and passing legislation including the Pandemic and All Hazards Preparedness Act (PAHPA), the Public Readiness and Emergency Preparedness Act (PREP Act), and reforms to Project BioShield. She holds a BA from the University of Virginia and a JD from Catholic University. --- ### Keri McGill - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/keri-mcgill/ - Role: Vice President #### Featured highlights - Experience in project management, rapid-response communications and budget oversight across a broad spectrum of clients and sectors Former intern at Matador DC Former intern at Taylor Law #### Biography Keri McGill joined CGCN in 2022, where she supports high-stakes public affairs campaigns, delivering crisis and rapid-response communications and shaping political, policy and executive messaging strategy. Prior to joining CGCN, Keri graduated summa cum laude from the University of Miami with dual majors in political science and public relations, along with a minor in Chinese. During her time at the University of Miami, her studies focused on public relations strategy, message development, statistical reasoning for strategic communication, U.S. health care policy, international relations and foreign policy. Prior to her current role, she built a strong foundation in public affairs, legal research and communications through internships at Matador DC and Taylor Law DC. During her internships, she assisted with public affairs coordination, media monitoring, legal research and content development for social media. --- ### Kevin Norton - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/kevin-norton/ - Role: Vice President #### Featured highlights - Former External Relations Coordinator at Delve Experience leading and supporting messaging, finance, and field operations in both state and federal politics. Named “30 Under Thirty Rising Republican Operatives” #### Career history - Joined CGCN in 2024 2021-2024 External Relations Coordinator at Delve and Corporate Development lead at Delve Deep Learning 2020-2021 Political Fundraising Consultant Various internships and roles in the House of Representatives, on campaigns, and in nonprofits #### Biography Kevin Norton helps design and execute strategic communications campaigns at CGCN. He brings his experience across Washington and in state politics to carefully tailor efforts to influence targeted audiences, engage third party trusted voices to bolster efforts, and cut through complex and crowded information environment to position clients for success. Previously, Norton led external engagement at a competitive intelligence firm, where he helped heavily regulated Fortune 500 companies and industries understand, anticipate, and manage their reputational challenges and complex stakeholder landscape. Additionally, Norton interned in the U.S. House of Representatives, coordinated field operations for a statewide campaign, and fundraised for federal campaigns and nonprofits and currently helps lead a national PAC. Norton moved to Washington in 2017 but will always proudly consider himself a Floridian, having grown up on the state’s Gulf Coast. --- ### Lauren O’Donnell - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/lauren-odonnell/ - Role: Director of Human Resources & Compliance #### Featured highlights - Expertise in Human Resource Management Experience with compliance matters relating to the lobbying industry #### Career history - Joined CGCN in 2010 2009: Designer, Paper Source 2008: Designer, Flow Creative 2005 – 2006: Marketing Associate, Performics #### Biography Lauren O’Donnell handles new client and new hire responsibilities as well as compliance matters for the firm, including all disclosure filings. She also works with the CGCN Strategic Communications team on firm marketing initiatives. Lauren joined the CGCN bringing nearly a decade of experience in advertising, online marketing and design. She has worked with a wide range of corporate clients from a diverse set of industries, including automotive, retail and commercial real estate. Lauren graduated from Penn State University and the Chicago Portfolio School. She spent much of her career in Chicago but now resides in Columbus, Ohio, with her family. --- ### Liza Luter - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/liza-luter/ - Role: Vice President #### Featured highlights - Former Press Secretary for Congressman David Kustoff Former Government Relations Intern at Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck Former Intern to Senator Bill Hagerty Former Legislative Intern at Cowsert Heath #### Biography Liza Luter is Vice President at CGCN, bringing a strong background in political communications, legislative strategy, and client relations. Prior to joining CGCN, Liza served as Press Secretary for Congressman David Kustoff, where she managed all digital and social media platforms, developed strategic messaging, and created content to maximize media coverage of key policy initiatives. In this role, she also contributed to press releases, speeches, op-eds, and interview preparation, ensuring effective communication of legislative priorities. Liza previously gained experience in government relations as an intern at Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck, where she researched and analyzed legislation on environmental sustainability, cannabis policy, and federal water negotiations. She also interned in the offices of Senator Bill Hagerty and Congressman Kustoff, handling constituent services, policy research, and communications support. Liza is a graduate of the University of Georgia, where she earned a B.A. in Political Science and International Affairs, cum laude. --- ### Madeleine Gray - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/madeleine-gray/ - Role: Associate #### Featured highlights - Former intern at CGCN Former Membership Coordinator at Business Connection Alliance #### Career history - Experience in competitive research, project management, data analytics, message development, and media analysis. #### Biography Madeleine joined CGCN in 2026 as an intern in the Analytics department before joining permanently as a Communications Associate. In her current position she supports strategic communications, public affairs, and stakeholder engagement efforts for clients across a range of industries. Her work includes policy research, message development, media monitering, and content creation to help clients effectively communicate with policymakers, stakeholders, and the public. Prior to joining CGCN, Madeleine served as Membership Coordinator for Business Connection Alliance, a financial advisory networking organization. In that role, she managed all member relations, coordinated internal and external communications, supported outreach initiatives, and produced advertising and media engagement efforts to strengthen organizational growth and member participation. Madeleine received her bachelor’s degree in Biological Anthropology from the University of Colorado. During her studies, she worked as a Research Assistant, tracking agricultural and energy trends and conducting data-driven research projects. Her academic background combined biological research with strategic communication, providing a strong foundation for analyzing complex issues and translating technical information into clear, effective messaging. --- ### Majeda Abu-Alghanam - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/majeda-abu-alghanam/ - Role: Executive Vice President of Advocacy #### Featured highlights - Former aide to Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson, U.S. House Committee on Agriculture Former aide to Chairman Jodey C. Arrington, U.S. House Committee on the Budget Former aide to Sen. John Cornyn #### Biography Majeda Abu-Alghanam is an Executive Vice President at CGCN and supports clients in the Energy and Environment practice. She has served various roles on Capitol Hill and in the private sector, specializing in a range of cross-sector issues including energy, environment, agriculture, food, and international trade policy. Most recently, Majeda served as an advisor at the U.S. House Committee on Agriculture for Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson (R-PA), where she oversaw legislative activity related to agricultural trade and domestic and international food policy, and negotiated these policies throughout the drafting and markup of the Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2024, commonly known as the Farm Bill. Prior, Majeda served as an advisor to Chairman of the U.S. House Committee on the Budget and senior Member of the U.S. House Committee on Ways and Means, Representative Jodey C. Arrington (R-TX), where she advised on key U.S. tariff measures and energy and agriculture-related trade disputes under the USMCA and conducted legislative and regulatory assessments related to the oil and gas sector, providing strategic guidance on issues impacting production, exports, and U.S. competitiveness in global energy markets. A native of West Texas, she began her career with U.S. Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) and former U.S. Representative K. Michael Conaway (R-TX), then-Chairman of the U.S. House Agriculture Committee. Majeda holds degrees from the University of Texas Permian Basin and received her graduate degree from the Georgetown University McDonough School of Business. --- ### Martha Miller - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/martha-miller/ - Role: Senior Vice President of Advocacy #### Featured highlights - Former scheduler and executive assistant for Rep. Warren Davidson Former deputy scheduler for Sen. Ted Cruz Former scheduler and executive assistant for Deputy Secretary of Education Mick Zais #### Career history - 2020-2022 – Scheduler and Executive Assistant for Congressman Warren Davidson (OH-08) 2019-2020- Deputy Scheduler for Senator Ted Cruz (TX) 2017-2019- Scheduler and Executive Assistant for Deputy Secretary of Education Mick Zais 2015-2017 – Staff Assistant at The House Committee on Education and the Workforce #### Biography Martha Miller is an experienced government professional with nearly a decade of experience in the public sector spending her career in the House, Senate, and first Trump Administration. She served as a top aide for Deputy Secretary of Education Mick Zais, Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX), Chairman of the Senate Commerce Committee, and Congressman Warren Davidson (R-OH), a member of the House Financial Services Committee. While serving at the U.S. Department of Education under the leadership of Secretary Betsy DeVos, Miller played a key role in the day-to-day functions of the Office of the Secretary by coordinating public events involving administration officials. She also contributed to the arrangement of the Annual White House Summit on Historically Black Colleges and Universities and was an integral part in the President’s Commission on School Safety, created in response to the tragedy at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in 2018. Despite the challenges that came with the COVID-19 Pandemic, Miller spent her time on Capitol Hill successfully leading the office operations for Senator Ted Cruz and Congressman Warren Davidson. Miller has used her experience to connect clients with relevant Members of Congress, as well as plan and execute policy strategies and successful fly-in events and meetings for various organizations and industry leaders. Before moving to Washington, D.C., Miller grew up in a suburb of Minneapolis and graduated from the University of Minnesota Duluth with a focus in Political Science. She now lives in northern Virginia with her husband, son, and golden retriever. --- ### Mathilde Sharman - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/mathilde-sharman/ - Role: Vice President #### Featured highlights - Joined CGCN in 2025 Experience driving integrated public affairs campaigns Led the development of a policy think tank and Fortune 500 annual report #### Biography Mathilde Sharman is a strategic communications professional who helps clients navigate complex challenges and drive impactful outcomes. She brings a strong foundation in integrated public affairs campaigns. Prior to joining CGCN, Mathilde was a Senior Director at a communications and digital agency based in Washington, D.C., where she executed high-profile initiatives in the healthcare policy and communications space. She has a broad range of experience across coalition building, reputation management, media engagement, thought leadership, executive communications, and event management. Mathilde holds a B.A. in Strategic Communication from Washington and Lee University and is a proud Alabama native. She lives in Washington, D.C. --- ### Matt Hartwig - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/matt-hartwig/ - Role: Senior Advisor #### Featured highlights - Former Senior Director, Media Relations and chief spokesperson for Emergent BioSolutions. Managed USAA’s brand, reputation, and crisis communications activities. Worked for bp and managed public affairs for the company’s alternative energy, downstream and labor relations segments. #### Biography Matt Hartwig has spent more than 20 years working at the intersection of public relations, public affairs and public policy. Before launching his own consulting company, Matt served as Senior Director, Media Relations and chief spokesperson for Emergent BioSolutions leading the pharmaceutical company’s crisis, external and investor communications. Prior to Emergent, Matt worked for financial services provider USAA helping manage the company’s brand, reputation and crisis communications activities including public relations initiatives for high-profile events including the Super Bowl, the Army-Navy Game presented by USAA and observances of solemn events such as Memorial Day. Matt has also supported global brands working for bp where he helped manage public affairs for the company’s alternative energy, downstream and labor relations segments. Earlier in his career, Matt worked as communication staff on several campaigns at the federal and state levels, for former Gov. Tom Vilsack in Iowa, and for former Sen. Tom Harkin on Capitol Hill. --- ### Matt Rhoades - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/matt-rhoades/ **Summary:** Matt Rhoades is a managing partner at CGCN Group and a nationally recognized Republican strategist with experience leading major political campaigns. - Role: Managing Partner #### Featured highlights - Romney/Ryan 2012 Presidential Campaign Manager Past leadership positions in PACs, the Republican National Committee and at the White House #### Career history - Joined CGCN in 2019 2013: Founded America Rising, an opposition research and communications firm 2012: Campaign Manager, Governor Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign 2010: Executive Director, Governor Mitt Romney’s Free and Strong America Political Action Committee 2001 – 2004: Various roles in President George W. Bush’s administration and winning re-election campaign #### Biography Throughout his career, Matt Rhoades has worked at the highest levels of political organizations and campaigns. He now applies those insights to the issues most important to his clients. Fortune Magazine described Rhoades as “a diligently low-key, data-oriented operator at the helm of the Romney campaign…” As campaign manager of Romney/Ryan 2012, Rhoades managed a budget of nearly $900 million. Prior to his time as campaign manager, Rhoades served as Executive Director of Mitt Romney’s Free & Strong America PAC, Communications Director on Romney’s 2008 presidential campaign, Research Director on the Bush/Cheney 2004 presidential campaign, and in various senior-level positions with the Republican National Committee. Rhoades also spent time in the Bush White House as an Associate Director in the Presidential Personnel Office and as a White House Liaison in the Office of Personnel Management. Rhoades brings nearly a decade of experience in the private sector to CGCN Group. During this time in the private sector, he played a significant role in building numerous political and issue advocacy organizations. --- ### Merrill Smith - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/merrill-smith/ - Role: Senior Partner #### Featured highlights - Former Special Assistant to Vice President Richard B. Cheney, Public Affairs, The White House Developed the Bush-Cheney 2004 comms strategy for the Midwest region Former communications advisor to Fortune 50 corporations, philanthropic foundations and trade associations #### Career history - Former Special Assistant to Vice President Richard B. Cheney, Public Affairs, The White House Developed the Bush-Cheney 2004 comms strategy for the Midwest region Former communications advisor to Fortune 50 corporations, philanthropic foundations and trade associations #### Biography Merrill Smith’s career in public affairs and politics began when she nixed the idea of law school and took leave from her job as a real estate paralegal at Morgan Lewis & Bockius LLP, to volunteer on then-Governor George W. Bush’s 2000 presidential campaign. Following him to the White House in January 2001, she held various positions, ultimately serving as Deputy Director for Public Affairs in the Office of The Vice President, where she was engaged in strategic communications planning and execution for foreign, domestic, and political affairs. Later, as a spokesperson for the Bush-Cheney 2004 re-election campaign, she developed and led the campaign’s strategic communications for the critical Midwest region, which included Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Illinois. In this role, she served as the primary on-the-record liaison with key state reporters and national media covering the region and led a team of state-based communicators. Following the President’s re-election, she was tapped to be the Deputy Director on the 55th Presidential Inaugural Committee where she was responsible for the development of the inauguration’s official commemorative book, George W. Bush: Portrait of a Leader. In the private sector, Smith has provided legislative, public affairs, media and development counsel for clients ranging from Fortune 50 corporations to grassroots coalitions and some of the nation’s leading philanthropic organizations, both as a Director at Public Strategies, Inc. and as an independent consultant. Her smart and substantive approach has earned her a reputation as a trusted advisor for public policy, political and business leaders alike. Smith earned a Bachelor of Arts in English from the University of Virginia. --- ### Michael Catanzaro - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/michael-catanzaro/ - Role: Chief Executive Officer #### Featured highlights - Former Special Assistant to the President for Domestic Energy and Environmental Policy, White House National Economic Council Former Deputy Staff Director, Senate Environment and Public Works Committee with Sen. Jim Inhofe Former Senior Policy Advisor to then Speaker John Boehner #### Career history - Joined CGCN in 2015, returned in 2018 after serving in the administration, Currently serves as: Non-Resident Senior Associate, Energy and Climate Change Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies Visiting Fellow, Energy Policy Institute, University of Chicago 2017 – 2018: Special Assistant to the President for Domestic Energy and Environmental Policy, White House National Economic Council 2013 – 2015: Managing Director, FTI Consulting 2011 – 2013: Senior Policy Advisor, Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) 2009 – 2011: Deputy Staff Director, Senate Environment and Public Works Committee Ranking Member Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK) 2007 – 2009: Director of Federal Relations, PPL Corporation 2005 – 2007: Associate Deputy Administrator, Environmental Protection Agency 2004 – 2005: Associate Director for Policy, White House Council on Environmental Quality 2004: Deputy Policy Director, Bush-Cheney Reelection Campaign 2003 – 2004: Communications Director, Senate Environment and Public Works Committee #### Biography Before working in energy policy, Mike Catanzaro began his career as a writer and reporter for nationally syndicated columnist Robert D. Novak. In that role, he edited the Evans-Novak Political Report and helped draft columns that appeared in major newspapers across the country, including the Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, and the New York Post. Throughout his career, Catanzaro has served in several senior policy positions in the federal government, including the U.S. House of Representatives, U.S. Senate, the Environmental Protection Agency, and the White House. Catanzaro served as Special Assistant to President Trump for Domestic Energy and Environmental Policy at the White House National Economic Council. In that role, he advised the president on a range of issues and helped craft energy and environmental policy across multiple agencies. He also was deputy staff director and communications director of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee and served on the Bush-Cheney re-election campaign as a top adviser on energy and environmental policy. During the George W. Bush Administration, he was Associate Director for Policy in the White House Council on Environmental Quality and Associate Deputy Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency. He also served as a senior energy and environmental policy adviser to then-Speaker John Boehner. Catanzaro is a Non-resident Senior Associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies; Chairman of the Policy and Digital Advisory Board of the Energy Consumer Market Alignment Project; and a former Visiting Policy Fellow at the University of Chicago's Energy Policy Institute. In 2022, Catanzaro was named by Washingtonian Magazine as one of "Washington DC's 500 Most Influential People." Catanzaro received his B.A. from Fordham University in political science and philosophy, and an M.A. in Government from Johns Hopkins University. --- ### Michele Jarvis - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/michele-jarvis/ - Role: Director of Operations #### Featured highlights - Over a decade of experience in state and federal government Former Director of Operations for two Members of Congress Former Special Assistant to the Idaho Secretary of State #### Career history - Joined CGCN in 2026 2025: Director of Operations, Congresswoman Monica De La Cruz (R-TX) 2024: Special Assistant, Idaho Secretary of State Phil McGrane 2019 – 2024: Operations Director, Congressman Russ Fulcher (R-ID) 2017 – 2019: Staff Assistant, Congressman Raul Labrador (R-ID) 2015 – 2017: Attaché, Idaho House of Representatives #### Biography Michele Jarvis is an operations professional with experience supporting senior leadership in both congressional and state government offices. She brings a strong background in managing complex schedules, coordinating logistics, and ensuring seamless day-to-day operations in fast-paced environments. Most recently, Michele served as Director of Operations in the Office of Congresswoman Monica De La Cruz, where she oversaw operations and scheduling for a Member serving on the House Committees on Finance and Agriculture. Previously, she served as Operations Director for Congressman Russ Fulcher, where she managed operations across three district offices in Idaho and served as the office’s Grants Coordinator. In addition to her work in Congress, Michele has supported members of the Idaho State House of Representatives and served as Special Assistant to the Idaho Secretary of State. She also served for over eight years as the public member of the Idaho Respiratory Therapy Board, including four years as chair. Michele contributed to the Idaho Caregiver Alliance Workgroup and the Alzheimer’s and Related Dementias Workgroup. She earned her Bachelor of Science in Public Health from Brigham Young University. Michele recently relocated to Northern Virginia and brings her experience and operational mindset to support CGCN’s team and clients. --- ### Mike Nielsen - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/mike-nielsen/ - Role: Chief Finance and Management Officer #### Featured highlights - Accomplished financial services and appropriations advisor Professional Staff and Subcommittee Staff Director on the Senate Banking Committee for over a decade. Extensive work as a Senate staffer and outside consultant on appropriations issues. #### Career history - Joined CGCN in 2013 2011 – 2012: Partner, The Bennett Group 2007 – 2010: Staff Director, Subcommittee on Financial Institutions, Senate Banking Committee 2005 – 2007: Professional Staff, Senate Banking Committee, Sen. Robert Bennett (R-UT) 1999 – 2005: Economic Issues Legislative Assistant, Sen. Robert Bennett (R-UT) #### Biography Mike Nielsen is a highly regarded expert on financial-services issues who had a hand in crafting every major piece of legislation that moved through the Senate Banking Committee from the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act of 1999 through the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010. Nielsen served as the top banking aide to former Utah Sen. Robert Bennett in his capacity as a senior member of the Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs. In that post, he dealt with banking, taxes, international trade and other financial-services matters. Nielsen began his career in Sen. Bennett’s office. He left Capitol Hill in 2010 to help the senator form The Bennett Group, where he represented financial sector clients with issues before Congress and helped them understand existing regulations. He joined CGCN in 2013 and continues to specialize in matters before the Senate and, more specifically, the powerful Senate Banking Committee. --- ### Morgan Spiro - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/morgan-spiro/ - Role: Vice President of Advocacy #### Featured highlights - Former Executive Assistant at International Franchise Association Former Staff Assistant for the U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources #### Biography Morgan Spiro is Vice President of Advocacy at CGCN Group, where she supports advocacy and consulting efforts across public lands, agriculture, energy, and conservation policy. In this role, Morgan cultivates relationships between CGCN and coalition partners and supports strategy development for the energy and environment team. Before joining CGCN, Morgan spent two years at the International Franchise Association (IFA), serving as Executive Assistant to the CEO and later as an Operations Specialist with the IFA Foundation. She managed complex scheduling and cross-discipline coordination at the C-suite level, translating executive priorities into actionable plans and keeping high-level stakeholder operations running on schedule. Morgan began her career on Capitol Hill as a Staff Assistant for the U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources under then-Ranking Member John Barrasso (R-WY). In that role, she developed and deployed systems that filled efficiency gaps and got things done. Her interest in Western water law, grazing regulations, and agricultural policy drew her to the committee's work, and it remains the throughline of her career today. That interest took root earlier, at the Wyoming Farm Bureau Federation, where Morgan supported a broad range of advocacy, operations, and communications efforts and first connected with professionals working on agricultural, environmental, and public-lands issues. A native of Central California, Morgan was actively involved in the dairy and conventional agriculture industry; her family is still involved in specialty crop farming and animal agriculture. She holds a Bachelor of Arts in Communication from the University of Wyoming, where she cultivated a passion for being outside. --- ### Patrick McCormick - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/patrick-mccormick/ - Role: Senior Advisor #### Featured highlights - Former Chief Counsel to the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources of the United States Senate Former Vice President, Regulatory for Bloom Energy Corporation Former partner and the leader of the Regulated Markets and Energy Infrastructure Practice in the Washington Office of Hunton & Williams LLP (now Hunton Andrews Kurth LLP) #### Biography Patrick McCormick, Senior Advisor, stepped down as Chief Counsel to the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources of the United States Senate near the end of 2025. Over a tenure spanning seven Congresses (112th-119th), McCormick previously served as Chief Counsel (2015-2018), Minority Chief Counsel (2013-2015 and 2024) and Minority Special Counsel (2011-2013 and 2020-2024) to the Committee. During his entire tenure, McCormick provided counsel to the Committee on legislation and Agency oversight on the energy policy of the United States and all other matters within the panel’s jurisdiction. He also had senior staff responsibility for the Committee’s consideration of the nominations of five Secretaries of Energy, five Secretaries of the Interior, and dozens of other Presidentially appointed Federal officials with responsibility for energy regulation and policy and the management of Federal lands. Prior to re-joining the committee staff at the invitation of the Chairman in 2020, McCormick served as Vice President, Regulatory for Bloom Energy Corporation, an NYSE-listed manufacturer of fuel cells, reporting to the company’s Chief Executive Officer. Prior to joining the Committee Staff in 2011, McCormick was a partner and the leader of the Regulated Markets and Energy Infrastructure Practice in the Washington Office of Hunton & Williams LLP (now Hunton Andrews Kurth LLP) among other private law practice experiences. McCormick’s private sector experience focused on representing energy companies and advising executives and government officials on matters pertaining to energy regulation and infrastructure development. Earlier in his career he served as Deputy Assistant General Counsel for Electric Rates and Corporate Regulation with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and in positions of increasing responsibility with Potomac Electric Power Company (now Pepco, a subsidiary of Exelon Corporation). --- ### Peter Ventimiglia - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/peter-ventimiglia/ **Summary:** Peter Ventimiglia is a senior partner at CGCN Group, advising clients on public affairs, advocacy strategy and complex policy challenges in Washington. - Role: Senior Partner #### Featured highlights - Former Managing Director at Koch Industries overseeing external communications Helped develop Koch’s first corporate reputation campaign Former Executive Vice President at Edelman #### Career history - 2021: Joined CGCN 2014 – 2021: Managing Director, Communications Marketing at Koch Industries 2013 – 2014: Executive Vice President at Edelman 2011 – 2013: Senior Vice President at Hill + Knowlton Strategies 2003 – 2011: Senior Vice President at Lombardo Consulting Group #### Biography Pete Ventimiglia has more than twenty years of experience as an advisor to both political candidates and major corporations, and his areas of expertise include corporate communications strategies, advertising development and public policy issue analysis/management. Prior to joining CGCN, he oversaw external communications at Koch Industries, which included corporate communications and media relations. In that role, he was also responsible for helping to create the company’s first-ever corporate reputation campaign, which repositioned the company and significantly improved public opinion toward Koch. Pete also created the company’s research and analytics function and helped to establish its internal communications function. Prior to joining Koch, Pete held senior leadership positions at Edelman and Hill+Knowlton Strategies, two leading Washington, DC communications firms, where he oversaw corporate communications efforts for numerous Fortune 50 clients and associations. He began his career as a political campaign pollster for Market Strategies, Inc., where he was a part of the research team that conducted and analyzed public opinion data for the George W. Bush campaign. Pete lives in Chevy Chase, MD with his wife and three children. --- ### Risav Ganguly - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/risav-ganguly/ - Role: Research Analyst #### Featured highlights - Research Assistant at the MIT Sloan School of Management Undergraduate Research Fellow at Howard University’s E2S2 Lab Former Researcher on Microsoft-funded economic research on the effectiveness of their Airband Broadband infrastructure Regularly publishes in the Hilltop on India-US relations, energy, data centers, and geopolitics Winner of The American Economic Association’s 2025 Andrew Brimmer Undergraduate Essay Prize for his paper on Stratification Economics Sloan Economics Fellow and a James Patterson Scholar pursuing his Bachelor’s degree in Economics at Howard University #### Biography Risav Ganguly is a Research Analyst at CGCN under its Analytics arm, where he supports the firm's dedicated research and intelligence unit with data-driven research on energy, industrial investment, trade, and economic policy. Beyond the firm, Risav is a Research Assistant at the MIT Sloan School of Management, where he builds data infrastructure for the dynamic modelling of cities, which is then further used to study how housing, jobs and populations shift over decades in relation to policies. He is also an Undergraduate Research Fellow at Howard University's E2S2 Lab and has previously served as a researcher on Microsoft-funded economic research on the effectiveness of their Airband Broadband infrastructure. Risav regularly publishes in the Hilltop on India-US relations, energy, data centers, and geopolitics. The American Economic Association named Risav as the winner of its 2025 Andrew Brimmer Undergraduate Essay Prize for his paper on Stratification Economics. Risav is currently a Sloan Economics Fellow and a James Patterson Scholar pursuing his Bachelor's degree in Economics at Howard University. Risav is fluent in English, Hindi, and Bengali. --- ### Sam Geduldig - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/sam-geduldig/ - Role: Managing Partner #### Featured highlights - Former Senior Advisor to then Majority Whip Roy Blunt Former staffer for the House Financial Services Committee and then Speaker John Boehner Successful record of building unconventional coalitions and issue advocacy campaigns #### Career history - Joined CGCN in 2007 2011: Named in the “40 under 40” by the Washingtonian 2002 – 2006: Senior Advisor, House Majority Whip Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO) 2000 – 2002: Coalitions Director, House Financial Services Chairman Rep. Mike Oxley (R-OH) 1997 – 2000: Political Director, Rep. John Boehner (R-OH) #### Biography Sam Geduldig brings unrivaled passion to his work on clients’ behalf, investing personally in their success. That energy and enthusiasm is a big reason Geduldig is a regular in The Hill newspaper’s list of top lobbyists and why National Journal turns to him for its elite Political Insiders Poll. As the Washingtonian noted, his “experiences allow him to offer his clients an exceptionally well-rounded view of the legislative process.” In addition to his work with CGCN Group, Geduldig is also a partner at United By Interest, Washington’s first bipartisan majority minority-owned lobbying firm. Before joining CGCN in 2007, Geduldig served in multiple roles for John Boehner before the Ohio Republican became speaker. He also worked as a top aide on the House Financial Services Committee to then-Chairman Mike Oxley. Geduldig spent four years as the top liaison between House GOP leaders and the business community as a senior advisor to then-House Majority Whip Roy Blunt. Geduldig began his career as a research analyst at Public Opinion Strategies, a polling firm, and worked on the press team for then-Sen. Bob Dole’s 1996 presidential campaign. Trust matters deeply to Sam. The people who have earned it tend to know it. --- ### Sarah Gilbert - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/sarah-gilbert/ - Role: Partner #### Featured highlights - Former Chief of Staff to Congressman Neal Dunn (R-FL) Former Leader of Congressman Dunn’s policy shop Former Healthcare Policy Advisor to Congressman George Holding (R-NC) #### Career history - Expertise in health care policy spanning the massive jurisdiction of the House Energy and Commerce and House Ways and Means Committees Focused extensively on the nexus of health care policy and national security Played a role in the reconciliation processes undertaken by the Trump administration in both 2017 and 2025 #### Biography Sarah Gilbert is a veteran of Capitol Hill, where she served in the House of Representatives for over a decade. Before joining CGCN, Sarah served as Chief of Staff to Congressman Neal Dunn (R-FL), the Vice Chair of the powerful House Energy and Commerce Committee and a member of the Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party. Prior to serving as Chief of Staff, she led Congressman Dunn's policy shop. Sarah also served as a health care policy advisor to Congressman George Holding (R-NC), who served on the House Ways and Means Committee. She has expertise in health care policy spanning the massive jurisdiction of the House Energy and Commerce and House Ways and Means Committees, which authorize hundreds of mandatory and discretionary spending programs that cover the full continuum of the United States healthcare system. She also focused extensively on the nexus of health care policy and national security, particularly as it relates to the threat posed by China and other state actors. During her time on the Hill, Sarah played a role in the reconciliation processes undertaken by the Trump administration in both 2017 and 2025. She also was key in prescription drug pricing reform discussions and policymaking, MACRA reform efforts, the 2022 User Fee agreement negotiations, passage of the BIOSECURE Act and various public health reauthorizations. Sarah is a graduate of UNC Chapel Hill and lives in Washington, D.C. --- ### Scott Riplinger - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/scott-riplinger/ - Role: Senior Partner #### Featured highlights - Former senior aide to Senate Finance Committee Chairman Mike Crapo Accomplished financial services, tax, technology, and commerce advisor Closely connected to the new Republican Party coalition #### Career history - Joined CGCN in 2020 2019 – 2020: Legislative Director, Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID) 2011 – 2018: Legislative Director, Deputy Legislative Director, Senior Legislative Assistant, Legislative Assistant, Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV) 2017 – 2018: Majority Staff Director of the Securities, Insurance, and Investment Subcommittee, U.S. Senate Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs Committee 2013 – 2016: Majority and Minority Staff Director of the Economic Policy Subcommittee, U.S. Senate Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs Committee #### Biography Scott Riplinger is widely regarded as one of the best Republican lobbyists in Washington, DC, recognized by The Hill as a top lobbyist. A Partner at CGCN Group since 2020, he helps Fortune 50 companies, startups, and trade associations develop and execute winning advocacy and strategic communications strategies across financial services, tax, artificial intelligence, technology, judiciary, commerce, trade, and transportation. Closely connected to the new Republican Party coalition, Scott works at the intersection of pro-growth conservatism and innovation—partnering with policy entrepreneurs, leadership teams, and business coalitions to translate priorities into results. His work reflects the GOP’s modernization and realignment on issues like AI, capital formation, supply chains, and American competitiveness, aligning private-sector realities with the party’s forward-looking agenda. Before the private sector, Scott spent 15 years on Capitol Hill shaping policy from idea to law. He served as Legislative Director for Chairman Mike Crapo (R-ID) and Senator Dean Heller (R-NV), acted as a liaison to the Senate Chief Deputy Whip, and was Majority Staff Director for the Securities, Insurance, and Investment Subcommittee—working closely with the U.S. Treasury Department and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. He began his career with House Small Business Committee Chairman Don Manzullo (R-IL). Known for building effective leadership coalitions and custom messaging, Scott advances client priorities on headline issues and behind-the-scenes policies alike. He is a proud graduate of Rock Valley Community College and Northern Illinois University, and lives in Arlington, Virginia, with his wife, Lauren Riplinger. --- ### Steve Clark - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/steve-clark/ - Role: Founder and Chairman #### Featured highlights - Former Manager of Government Affairs for Ohio Bell Telephone Co Former Vice President of Public Affairs for Ameritech/ SBC Recognized by The Ohio Chamber of Commerce as Ohio’s Top Corporate Lobbyist #### Career history - Founded CGCN in 2000 CGCN’s founding Member and current Chairman Over 40 years of experience working with state and federal government Voted by Ohio Chamber of Commerce as Ohio’s Best Corporate Lobbyist #### Biography Steve Clark “set the standard for what a small lobby shop can be,” in the words of The Hill newspaper. As the firm he launched in 2000 continues to grow, Clark has never lost the personal touch that has made him one of the most experienced, reliable and knowledgeable corporate advocates in Washington. That is why The Hill consistently ranks him as one of the top lobbyists in town and the Ohio Chamber of Commerce named him the state’s “most effective corporate lobbyist.” During his three decades in government affairs, Clark has represented a diverse mix of clients in a broad range of industries, including banking, insurance, telecommunications, energy, aviation and health care. Before he formed what is now CGCN Group, Clark served as the vice president for government affairs at Ameritech, the telecommunications giant that is now part of AT&T. At Ameritech, he oversaw the company’s government relations at the federal, state and local level. --- ### Susan Griffiths - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/susan-griffiths/ - Role: Partner #### Featured highlights - Former Director of Government and Regulatory Affairs for Hyliion Former attorney and Congressional Liaison at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Worked as an Advisor to former FERC Commissioner Bernard McNamee #### Career history - Former Director of Government and Regulatory Affairs for Hyliion Former attorney and Congressional Liaison at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Worked as an Advisor to former FERC Commissioner Bernard McNamee #### Biography Susan Griffiths was the Director of Government and Regulatory Affairs for Hyliion. Before joining Hyliion, Susan was an attorney at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and worked as an Advisor to Commissioner Bernard McNamee and as a Congressional Liaison. She is a graduate of Georgia State University College of Law and the University of Alabama. --- ### Tiffany Rose - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/tiffany-rose/ - Role: Vice President of Advocacy #### Featured highlights - Former Managing Partner, RGS, Inc. Consulting Former Special Assistant to the President & CEO and Head of Government Affairs, at Destination DC Former Director, Trust for the National Mall #### Biography Tiffany Rose is a seasoned government affairs expert with over 20 years of experience in public affairs, strategic partnerships, business development, and stakeholder engagement. As Managing Partner of RGS, Inc., she led government relations efforts for a diverse range of clients, leveraging her extensive network and deep understanding of public policy. Previously, as Special Assistant to the President & CEO and Head of Government Affairs at Destination DC, Tiffany successfully helped to secure millions in additional annual funding from the District Government for international promotion, significantly boosting the organization’s visibility and influence. She also spearheaded government engagement initiatives, including collaborating with Members of Congress, the DC City Council, DC Executive Office of the Mayor, the international dignitaries, and more. Throughout her career, Tiffany has built strong relationships with elected officials, government agencies, and industry leaders, making her a trusted advocate and strategic advisor in the government affairs landscape. Ms. Rose is a proud graduate of Howard University. --- ### Tim Killeen - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/tim-killeen/ - Role: Senior Partner #### Featured highlights - Experienced communication professional with experience in energy, healthcare, and financial services Former campaign advisor to Rep. Liz Cheney and Republican National Committee official #### Career history - Joined CGCN in 2019 2015 – 2019: Definers Public Affairs 2014: America Rising 2013 – 2014: Liz Cheney’s senate campaign 2012 – 2013: Washington Free Beacon 2010 – 2011: Keep America Safe 2007 – 2010: Republican National Committee 2006: Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s reelection campaign #### Biography Tim Killeen has years of experience as a strategic communications professional with a demonstrated history of working with the private sector, nonprofit, and political clients. He has advised Fortune 500 companies on policy issues, including healthcare, energy, and financial services. Prior to consulting, he spent years working at the highest levels of Republican political campaigns. Killeen served as Deputy Campaign Manager for Rep. Liz Cheney’s 2014 Senate campaign. Before joining the Cheney campaign, Killeen helped launch the Washington Free Beacon as Director of Research for both the Washington Free Beacon and the Center for American Freedom. Previously, Killeen was Executive Director for Keep America Safe, a national security non-profit. From 2007 to 2010, Killeen worked in the Research Department at the Republican National Committee as a Research Analyst, Senior Research Analyst, and acting Research Director. Killeen also served as Senior Policy Analyst for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s successful 2006 reelection campaign. He is a graduate of Claremont McKenna College with a Bachelor of Arts in Government. --- ### Tim Pataki - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/tim-pataki/ - Role: Senior Partner #### Featured highlights - Former Assistant to the President and Director, White House Office of Public Liaison, President Donald Trump Former Senior Advisor & Director of Coalitions and Member Services, House Energy & Commerce Committee, then Chairman Fred Upton Former leadership aide to then Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy and Majority Leader Eric Cantor #### Career history - Joined CGCN in 2021 2019 – 2021: Assistant to the President, Director, Office of Public Liaison, Executive Office of the President, President Donald Trump 2018: Special Assistant to the President, Director of Business Outreach, Office of Public Liaison, Executive Office of the President 2017 – 2018: Special Assistant to the President, Office of Legislative Affairs, Executive Office of the President 2014 – 2017: Senior Advisor & Director of Coalitions and Member Services, House Energy & Commerce Committee, Chairman Fred Upton (R-MI) 2011 – 2014: Leadership Aide to then Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and then Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA), respectively Member of the Board of Trustees of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Smithsonian Institution #### Biography Tim Pataki has held senior positions in Congress and the White House for over a decade. Before joining CGCN, Pataki served as Assistant to the President and the Director of the White House Office of Public Liaison for President Donald Trump. Among other duties, he served as the White House’s top liaison to the business community, he worked with an array of stakeholders, from Fortune 500 executives, small & medium sized businesses, and a range of diverse trade associations across the country. In that role, Pataki created and led the “President’s Great Economic Revival Industry Committee” to advise the federal government on COVID-related issues facing the nation’s economy. He also spearheaded the coalition and passage of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement Implementation Act, which stands as one of the largest bipartisan trade votes in recent history. Pataki also served as Special Assistant to the President for Legislative Affairs, serving as the President’s representative in Congress, working with members of the House Energy & Commerce, Ways & Means, Transportation and Infrastructure, Agriculture, and Natural Resources Committees. Among other legislative accomplishments, he was instrumental in the planning, execution, and ultimately successful passage of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Prior to the White House, Pataki began his career working in the House of Representatives for then Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) as staff assistant. He then served as floor assistant to Eric Cantor (R-VA), then Majority Leader, focusing on the day-to-day operations of the House floor and member services for the House Republican Conference. Pataki closed out his congressional career as Senior Advisor and Director of Coalitions & Member Services for the House Energy and Commerce Committee, where he coordinated activities with the communications, energy, and healthcare industries. Pataki currently serves as a Member of the Board of Trustees of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Smithsonian Institution. --- ### Tracey Schmitt - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/tracey-schmitt/ - Role: Senior Partner and Chief Strategy Officer #### Featured highlights - Former RNC Press Secretary, Senior Spokesperson at Bush 2004 & McCain 2008 Presidential Campaign Former Senior Vice President of Global Public Affairs at Emergent BioSolutions​ Founder of Matador #### Biography Veteran communications strategist, Tracey Schmitt founded Matador after nearly two decades of developing winning strategies for high profile leaders in the public, private and political sectors; including the White House, and three presidential campaigns. On the front lines of Republican politics, she advised candidates and campaigns at the forefront of the national political and policy debates as the National Press Secretary for the Republican National Committee, a Spokeswoman for President George W. Bush's re-election campaign, National Press Secretary for the 2005 Presidential Inaugural Committee, and the Deputy Communications Director and Spokeswoman for the McCain-Palin Presidential Campaign, in the fall of 2008. ​In the private sector, Tracey has counseled numerous business leaders and CEOs at the intersection of policy, government relations, and public relations. As Senior Vice President of Global Public Affairs at Emergent BioSolutions, a global biodefense and biopharmaceutical company, Schmitt led an award-winning team whose portfolio included Public Affairs, Global Public Relations, Investor Communications, Branding, and Corporate Social Responsibility. She has been published in the New York Times and has appeared on network and cable television as a political analyst. Her work has taken her to over thirty countries across Europe, Asia, Middle East, Australasia, Africa, and Central America. A graduate of the University of Southern California's Annenberg School of Journalism, her graduate studies have included Executive Education programs at both the Harvard School of Business and Oxford University. --- ### Travis Cone - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/travis-cone/ - Role: Partner #### Featured highlights - Former Deputy Staff Director for the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee with Sen. Shelley Moore Capito Former Legislative Director to House Financial Services Committee Rep. Andy Barr Former Legislative Assistant to then-House Appropriations Committee Chairman Rep. Hal Rogers #### Career history - Joined CGCN in 2024 after 13 years in Congress. 2021-2024: Deputy Staff Director for the Committee on Environment and Public Works 2017-2021: Senior Legislative Assistant to Senator Shelley Moore Capito 2013-2017: Legislative Director for Congressman Andy Barr 2011-2013: Legislative Assistant for Congressman Hal Rogers 2007: Intern for Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell 2023: Observer at the United Nations Conference of the Parties on Climate Change 28 (COP28) in Dubai 2014-2015: Stennis Center for Public Service Leadership, “Emerging Congressional Staff Leader” 2013: Wilson Center International Center for Scholars, Foreign Policy Fellow, Inaugural Class #### Biography Prior to joining CGCN, C. Travis Cone served in a variety of roles on Capitol Hill, becoming a respected staffer for energy, environment, infrastructure, appropriations, and financial services policy over a period of 13 years in both the Senate and House of Representatives. Most recently, Cone served as Deputy Staff Director for the United States Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works (EPW) under Ranking Member Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV), directly managing the environment team. In this capacity, Cone led successful legislative negotiations, conducted regulatory oversight, scripted and managed committee hearings, and engaged in the reconciliation process related to agencies such as the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), and others. Before joining the Committee in this role, Cone served as the Senior Legislative Assistant for Senator Capito, handling EPW issues as well as energy policy within the jurisdiction of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. In this capacity, he also acted as the Staff Director for the Clean Air & Nuclear Safety Subcommittee and the Transportation & Infrastructure Subcommittee under the chairmanship of Senator Capito. In the House, Cone most recently served as Legislative Director for Congressman Andy Barr (R-KY-06), a senior member of the House Financial Services Committee and handled that committee’s portfolio, specializing in oversight of Dodd-Frank Act implementation. Previously, Cone served as a Legislative Assistant for Dean of the House and then-House Committee on Appropriations Chairman Harold Rogers (R-KY-05), managing the Interior-EPA, Energy and Water, and Financial Services appropriations portfolios. Cone got his start in politics as an intern for Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY). Cone received his B.A. in history from Columbia University and an M.A. in international affairs from the Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce at the University of Kentucky. Cone studied abroad at the Kyoto Consortium for Japanese Studies at Kyoto University. --- ### Zoe Lyakhov - URL: https://cgcn.com/team-members/zoe-lyakhov/ - Role: Associate #### Featured highlights - Joined CGCN in 2026 Heritage Academy Fellow, The Heritage Foundation (2026-Present) Political Team Intern, American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) (2025) Kimmel Fellow, American Jewish Committee (AJC) (2025) Legal Intern, Hon. Caryn R. Fink, Nassau County Criminal Court (2024) Research Intern, Vanderbilt University (2021, 2022) B.A in Political Science, New York University #### Biography Before joining CGCN, Lyakhov gained experience across public affairs, advocacy, and government-related policy work through positions with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), the American Jewish Committee (AJC), and The Heritage Foundation. In these roles, she conducted legislative and political research, developed advocacy materials for policy makers, analyzed campaign finance and political data, and supported stakeholder engagement initiatives on issues ranging from foreign policy to civil rights and constitutional governance. Earlier in her career, Lyakhov interned for Hon. Caryn R. Fink of the Nassau County Criminal Court, where she conducted legal research and observed judicial proceedings, gaining firsthand exposure to the legal system and courtroom operations. She also worked as a research intern at Vanderbilt University, contributing to research examining Latin American migration trends and return migration patterns. A graduate of New York University, Lyakhov earned a Bachelor of Arts in Political Science. While at NYU, she served a Co-Communications Director of the Liberal Studies Law Cooperative Club, helping promote legal education programming and professional engagement opportunities for students. --- ## Issues and Insights ### The Working Class, Standing Athwart History - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/the-working-class-standing-athwart-history/ - Published: 2025-05-28 - Updated: 2025-05-28 President Trump’s “one big, beautiful bill” is not what you think it is. To us, it stands as the preeminent symbol of the new Republican party. To know the main beneficiaries of the bill is to know the party’s overriding political mandate to deliver for its base. Its working-class base. The GOP’s working-class base? Indeed. We’ve written about this reality for several years now, in some cases to vehement denials, even ridicule. But look at the bill’s provisions (particularly the tax provisions, helpfully summarized by the House Ways and Means Committee), and see for yourself where such an assessment stands: $40 billion in “tax breaks for hourly, overtime workers”; $124 billion for “tipped workers”; $100 billion investment “in new opportunity zones”; ends “$500 billion in Biden-era tax breaks and special interest giveaways to wealthy, big corporations”; “eliminates special tax breaks for billionaire sports team owners”; and “holds woke, elite universities that operate more like major corporations and other tax-exempt entities accountable.” This bill comes not from the party of Reagan, or Gingrich, or Bush, or Boehner, or McConnell, or Ryan. It comes from the party of Trump, and it is the Republican party now, and likely for years to come. To understand how we arrived at this point, one must turn back the clock to height of the Eisenhower era. It was then that the party’s populist seeds were sown, only to emerge full flower 70 years later. On November 19, 1955, in the inaugural issue of National Review, William F. Buckley, Jr. said the magazine would “stand athwart history, yelling Stop, at a time when no one is inclined to do so, or to have much patience with those who so urge it.” Buckley’s injunction was dismissed as quixotic, but he got the last word. More than any other figure, he helped to radically reshape the politics of modern American conservatism and the Republican Party. And yes, as we’ll see, Buckley was a proto-populist. Other than both being sons of the Big Apple, Buckley and Trump, of course, couldn’t be more different: Buckley, with his affected aristocratic mien and lofty literary sensibility was born of a traveling oil developer family, and Trump, the blue-collar billionaire, a second-generation New York real estate magnate who has little time for scholarly erudition and polysyllabic words. But both stand as towering giants in how they shaped, and are shaping, the GOP’s voters and leaders, and the nation’s politics. Seven decades later, in 2025, we are entering perhaps the final stage of the unraveling of Buckley’s longstanding political achievement, of combining the various strands of the conservative movement into a unified base supporting the GOP. This disentanglement stems from many causes, but chief among them is President Trump, whose impact on the party’s ideas and political direction is undeniable and, so it would seem, unstoppable. The Trump effect, to state the obvious, is creating a GOP more steeped in its populist roots. Buckley helped forge the, at times, uncomfortable partnership between libertarians, traditionalists, and anticommunists. This intellectual “fusionism,” inspired by Buckley’s colleague and mentor Frank Meyer, led to resounding political success, contributing significantly to Ronald Reagan’s landslide victory in 1980, and an overhaul of the party’s governing philosophy. Also called the “three-legged stool,” the GOP’s unity emerged alongside a budding political phenomenon that quietly emerged in the late 1970s and 1980s, one that has profoundly altered the composition of the nation’s two political parties. This was the rise of “Reagan Democrats,” a group of voters from the Industrial Midwest, who didn’t directly figure into the fusionist formula. They were once fixtures of the Democratic party’s base but felt betrayed by the party as, in their rendering, it moved left on social issues and capitulated to the growing Soviet menace. Their embrace of Reagan, and “Reaganism,” contributed to massive electoral losses for Democrats and extended the GOP’s electoral reach beyond the corporate boardroom. Nonetheless, it was the corporate CEO, and the upper-income professional, rather than the rank-and-file labor union member, who most influenced Republican policymaking in the late 20th and early 21st centuries. Reagan Democrats became part of the Republican coalition, but they were not central to it. Their concerns were voiced but often not heard. In short, and not exactly what Buckley had in mind, the business of the GOP was (Big) business. Working-class voters over time grew disgusted with both parties. Certainly, they felt growing unease with, and then outright opposition to, post-9/11 military misadventures in Iraq and Afghanistan during the George W. Bush administration—not least because the physical and psychological burdens of war were disproportionately borne by their sons and daughters. Intensifying their disaffection was the bipartisan response to the 2008 financial crisis, perceived by them (and not without some justification) as underwriting Wall Street’s excesses. These voters expressed their anger by moving uneasily to President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 but remained dissatisfied with the status quo. Then came 2015. Donald Trump ventured down an escalator, announced his presidential candidacy, and, just as Buckley did, said to the establishments of both parties, “Stop.” That is, in Trump’s telling: stop illegal immigration, stop endless foreign wars, and stop technocratic and cultural elites who monopolized power at the expense of everyday Americans. This is exactly what working class voters wanted to hear. And with Trump, they felt that, for the first time in many years, they were being heard. So they voted for him in 2016, 2020, and 2024. Here we document the similarities in the relative positions and ideas motivating Trump and Buckley. Both come from the starting point that elites have ill-served the country. They are both populists—in different ways, to be sure. Recall Buckley’s famous line, quite apt in the age of Trump, that, “I am obliged to confess I should sooner live in a society governed by the first two thousand names in the Boston telephone directory than in a society governed by the two thousand faculty members of Harvard University.” See Trump’s recent dealings with Harvard, and you get the picture. By the same token, Buckley gave no quarter to a segment of the Republican establishment that he deemed inimical to the conservative cause. “Radical conservatives in this country have an interesting time of it,” he wrote, “for when they are not being suppressed or mutilated by Liberals, they are being ignored or humiliated by a great many of those of the well-fed Right, whose ignorance and amorality have never been exaggerated for the same reason that one cannot exaggerate infinity.” Trump’s attacks on the GOP establishment have a similar ring. Trump, of course, is said to govern by gut instinct, with no fixed ideas about politics or political philosophy. That may be true. But even so, Trump’s populism, along with his governing style, is now favored by working-class, and a growing number of minority voters, whose concerns are quite different from those championed by corporate America, and by extension, the Reagan-Gingrich-Bush-McConnell Republican party. As a result, one can confidently declare, not necessarily the end, but the precarious fraying, of the centerright fusionism that defined the GOP for half a century. National Review’s Phil Klein called the new coalition “the new fusionism of wanting to blow stuff up.” He elaborates: Adherents to this new fusionism may have previously come from the far right or the far left, but they share an overriding belief that so-called experts and elite institutions have royally messed things up roughly since the end of the Cold War. As a corollary, they believe that those people need to be driven away from all levers of influence and power. And a good number of them believe that Trump is the vehicle by which to make this happen. Note, too, that this has consequences for bipartisanship. The “blow stuff up” caucus incorporates members from the extremes of both parties. When Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) teams up with Senators Corey Booker (D-NJ) and Jeff Merkley (D-OR) on pro-union labor legislation, you know something radically different is afoot. In short, center-out bipartisanship is not quite dead, but certainly fading. Surely Trump, more than any other political figure, contributed to this reality. But it now extends beyond Trump, deep into the party’s DNA. With three election cycles behind us, it’s now safe to say that working class voters fit comfortably within the GOP tent and are essential to its long-term political prospects. Democrats, on the other hand, are becoming the party of the well-heeled. This is what political scientists call a realignment. The expanding influence of working-class voters in the GOP is inverting long-held social, political, and economic assumptions that have divided the two parties in the modern era. Consequently, Republicans are now influenced by ideas and campaign priorities that are, in many ways, anathema to both Buckley and Reagan. This isn’t your father’s Republican Party. Electoral contrast helps reinforce the point. Consider that, in 2024, Kamala Harris won 13 of the 20 wealthiest counties in America; Trump won seven. The last time the GOP had a popular vote mandate was in 2004, when Bush won 17 of the 20 wealthiest counties. So what’s changed? The GOP remains the party of social conservatism but has moved on from its main social preoccupation of the last 50 years: abortion. After the downfall of Roe v. Wade, the fight over abortion is now in the states, where many in the GOP wanted it to be. The drive for a national abortion ban, backed by a constitutional amendment, no longer seems a pressing concern of party leaders (though it remains so for many socially conservative activists). In its place, Trump has pushed the party’s main “culture war” endeavor, which is to expunge “diversity, equity, and inclusion” initiatives from government, corporations, and educational institutions. Perhaps the most astonishing turn in the modern Republican platform relates to economics. The “supply side revolution”—whose first shot, fired in the form of a graph written on a cocktail napkin in a DC bar in 1974—came to dominate Reagan’s insurgent candidacy and presidency. Economist Art Laffer and Wall Street Journal Associate Editor Jude Wanniski (coiner of the phrase “supply side”) were its leading intellectual proponents. Supply-side thinking became gospel, dominating debates over tax rates, trade policy, and deregulation. Trump is chipping away at supply-side dogma, deeming it to be, in some respects, contrary to working-class concerns. Trump’s trade policy, through tariffs and other protectionist measures, is surely one such transgression. The GOP’s free-trade ethos, championed most fervently by corporate America, was once considered sacrosanct. But Trump’s deep suspicion of global elites and institutions, and the post-war economic consensus they developed and managed, reflects the GOP’s working-class base. Trump believes his electoral mandate is to reinvigorate hollowed-out Rust Belt communities, and that won’t happen, in his view, so long as America remains submissive to unfair trade and technocratic globalization. Sen. Jim Banks (R-IN) has best captured the party’s new economic focus and emphasis: “Nobody has suffered more because of bad trade and economic policymaking than America’s working and middle classes. Our policies should focus on doing right by them, especially those working in manufacturing, the trades, and other skilled fields that don’t require a four-year degree. Republicans must not take their vote for granted.” Republicans have always been the party of lowering taxes, especially, in true supply-side fashion, marginal income tax rates on high-income earners. No other party position comes as close to orthodoxy as that. But Trump, at least for a time, entertained something once considered unthinkable from a Republican president. When asked recently about raising taxes on wealthy earners in the reconciliation bill now moving through Congress, Trump said, “I actually love the concept, but I don’t want it to be used against me politically, because I’ve seen people lose elections for less. I’d be raising them on wealthy to take care of middle class. And that’s—I love, that.” “I love, that.” Earth-shattering. For now, the GOP’s anti-tax orthodoxy has held firm. But one wonders for how long. One need only read the titles of various sections in the “One Big, Beautiful Bill Act” that passed the House of Representatives last week: “Tax relief for American Families and Workers”; “Extension of Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Reforms for Rural America and Main Street”; “Working Families over Elites.” The bill’s major provisions include President Trump’s top priority to eliminate taxes on overtime and tips. The bill also “holds woke, elite universities…accountable, ensuring they can no longer abuse generous benefits provided through the tax code.” Compare this to the text of the (blandly titled) “Tax Reform Act of 1986,” Reagan’s signature legislative achievement. You would strain to find any specific callout of “workers” or “Main Street,” while references to “Corporate Deductions,” “General Business Credit Deduction,” and “Individual Capital Gains” abound. These differences are not merely semantic or superficial, but indicative of two very different political mindsets. Finally, in the realm of foreign policy, and in the minds of Trump officials, the neoconservatism of the Bush years has been thoroughly discredited by the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Neoconservatism informed the call by President George W. Bush in his second inaugural address to make the “expansion of freedom” the singular goal of American foreign policy. “America’s vital interests and our deepest beliefs are now one.” Such bright-eyed idealism no longer holds sway. And Bill Kristol, one of the chief architects of neoconservative foreign policy, now votes for Democrats. We are not here to pronounce judgement on that era and certainly hold the highest reverence for those who served. We are merely noting Trump’s, and the GOP’s, renunciation of foreign military engagements that are untethered to specific, narrow considerations of American interests. Trump’s foreign policy starts with the basic question: “Have we taken care of Americans first?” Followed by: “Will this particular action help not only those who require our aid, but our fellow citizens who deserve to live in a safe and secure country?” This is a far cry from promoting regime change and democracy abroad. This is Trump’s party, but it’s also a party forging a new path, with a new coalition of voters. That means new priorities, new ideas, a shedding of the old skin. NR’s Klein said it best: “We can no longer take it for granted that certain foundational ideas are agreed upon. When arguing about an economic proposal, for instance, we cannot assume that all conservatives will agree that the free-market approach is preferable or that the one that requires more government intervention is to be avoided on principle.” --- ### Navigating Unchartered Waters - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/navigating-unchartered-waters/ - Published: 2024-07-23 - Updated: 2024-07-23 The headline comes from former President Barack Obama. We’re Republicans, but we think the 44th President perfectly described the next one hundred and five days of the 2024 campaign. Such apt phrasing also explains the previous three-hundred and sixty-five: a Speaker of the House defenestrated; attempts to remove a former president from state election ballots; those attempts thwarted by a unanimous Supreme Court; a former president indicted and convicted of felonies; those convictions seemingly diminished by the Supreme Court; an assassination attempt on that same former president’s life; and Hulk Hogan and Kid Rock taking center stage at the Republican National Convention—to name just a few. And now this. With President Biden on Sunday making the fateful decision to abandon his campaign for a second term, Republicans, not to say the country at large, have a lot on their minds. July 13, 2024, will rightly live in infamy. No matter your political persuasion, it’s surely true that the events of that surreal day stirred, if only for a fleeting moment, the nation’s abiding patriotism and civic faith. Of course, the tide turned—and quickly. We’re back in the thick of things. And yesterday only confirmed that fact. We’ve read our fair share of conspiracy theories about what fueled Biden’s final decision to leave the race. But we don’t get hired to repeat such theories, nor, for that matter, do we, as Republicans, get paid to opine on Democratic politics. We can, however, speak credibly about the Republican Party, its various ideological factions, and the full panoply of its members, from leadership to freshmen members of Congress, from governors to state representatives, from California to New York, and everywhere in between. This memo explains what those Republicans are thinking, why they’re thinking it, and what you should expect from them over the remainder of a raucous, and unconventional, 2024 campaign. In sum, for Republicans, Biden’s performance in office and his exit raise serious questions about national security, but as a more mundane political matter, the sound and fury around Biden has unified the party—around former President Donald Trump, his Vice-Presidential nominee, Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), and their agenda heading into 2025. WHAT ABOUT JOE? Here’s a common syllogism we’ve heard from Republicans since at least the June 27th Trump-Biden debate: Mentally compromised presidents should be removed via the 25th Amendment (Section 4); Joe Biden is a mentally compromised president; therefore, Joe Biden should be removed via the 25th Amendment. (If you want a reliable GOP barometer for this line of argument, read Sen. Vance’s tweets.) For Republicans, this issue is, in part, smacks of hypocrisy from the chorus of Democrats who, in 2017, charged President Trump as mentally unfit to serve the office he secured through the ballot box, and suggested having Trump’s Cabinet invoke the 25th Amendment to remove him from office. But Republicans tell us the shoe is now on the other foot. For them, as they see it, the logic is inescapable: If President Biden isn’t up to completing the 2024 campaign, how can he continue serving in one of the most physically and psychologically demanding jobs on the planet? Consider this from Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) yesterday: “If Joe Biden is not fit to run for President, he is not fit to serve as President. He must resign office immediately. November 5 cannot arrive soon enough.” This is not just about the presidential race; it will likely be an issue facing vulnerable House and Senate Democratic candidates with tough reelections this fall. Far be it from us to speculate how Senators Brown (D-OH), Tester (D-MT), Baldwin (D-WI) and others would address this uncomfortable topic, but Republican campaign operatives tell us they will force the issue. (Speaking of the shoe on the other foot: To us, the clearest way to think in politics is to follow the old adage, “Know your opponent.” In other words, you get the best perspective by imagining how the other side would deal with a similar crisis, or success, or defeat. We hear this now from Republicans; to them, the thinking goes, “What would the Democrats be doing if the crisis engulfing them were instead besetting us?”) WHO IS, AND WHO WAS, IN CHARGE? Pay close attention to the verb tense in that headline. Republicans will demand to know, via oversight hearings and other means, just who was (to quote George W. Bush) “the decider” on the critical national security and foreign policy issues that have emerged since January 2021. Everything is on the table, they tell us: Russia-Ukraine; Israel-Gaza; the sinister machinations of China, Iran, and North Korea; and other threats facing the nation. But perhaps more controversially—and we heard this during today’s House Oversight and Accountability Committee hearing—Republicans, outraged over the (thankfully failed) assassination attempt on President Trump, will tie the Secret Service’s apparent mishandling of the security measures at Trump’s July 13th rally in Pennsylvania to managerial chaos in the White House. Moreover, they will take Vice President Kamala Harris to task along these very lines. For Republicans see Harris in a Catch-22 of her (and the Democrats’) own making: If President Biden can’t finish the 2024 campaign, because he can’t serve a second term, has he really been “mens sana in corpore sano” since becoming President? Based on what we’ve seen (Republicans say), how can you, Madam Vice President, possibly say Biden was really making decisions? If you were in fact making the decisions, then you lied to the public, repeatedly, and you are responsible for the consequences. Republicans will then return to the present. You will hear from them, and quite often: Who is running the country now? By their reckoning, Biden’s exit from the race had little if anything to do with a sober-minded assessment by his inner circle of his dimming political prospects. As the GOP sees it, Biden’s decision stemmed from a clinical diagnosis of a serious medical problem that the country has every right to know about. GOP UNITY By all accounts, the party is unified. To be sure, the attempted assassination of the party’s nominee was a galvanizing, and unifying, event. There were no internecine battles over the niceties of platform language, no disgruntled backers of losing candidates complaining or withholding support (as in 2016) for Trump. Even former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, Trump’s most vociferous, and really only mildly serious, primary challenger, was invited, with a featured speaking slot. You may dismiss the assertion of unity as self-interested, but based on our years of experience working in GOP politics, Republicans are decidedly enthused about their “big-tent party,” with a diverse group of partisans mixing comfortably inside it. GOP MESSAGE From unity comes strength; from strength, confidence. In what, exactly? The message. More specifically, Republicans tell us they’re eager to discuss messaging around the issues, on which President Trump, according to numerous public polls over the last several months, enjoyed commanding leads over Biden, and, it seems likely, at least for a time anyway, Vice President Harris. You will hear much about inflation, foreign wars, and chaos at the Southern Border, but Republicans we speak with say they’re now comfortable going off this script. Between now and Election Day, you will hear, as a core message from GOP candidates across the board, that the Democrats and their media allies attempted one of the most egregious political cover-ups in U.S. history. In short, expect to hear various permutations of the following question, “What did Vice President Harris know, and when did she know it? From a messaging perspective, as Republicans tell it, this is as easy as it gets in politics—both Nikki Haley and J.D. Vance can say this without even blinking an eye. VANCE AND “CLASS DISMISSED” Vance’s selection was an unconventional choice, as he was chosen because of how he thinks and talks about non- traditional GOP issues. For example, in his acceptance speech, Vance spoke about poor, blue-collar communities and workers, or those left behind by bicoastal, Washington leaders. Put simply, this is not your father’s Republican Party anymore. This is a social and political phenomenon that we discussed in a CGCN Group memo released in January 2024, titled, “Class Dismissed” (https://cgcn.com/issues/class-dismissed-reframing-political-bias-in-congress/). The Trump-Vance Republican Party is orienting itself around blue-collar workers, in a way that, completes the flirtation of “Reagan Democrats” with the GOP. And even more interestingly, the Trump campaign’s own data shows that Biden- Harris ticket underperforming with Hispanic voters. Indeed, Republicans will test long-held political orthodoxy, according to which a hardline stance on illegal immigration leads to alienation of this critical voting bloc. WHAT’S NEXT But first things first. This morning’s House Oversight and Accountability Committee hearing with Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle featured what will likely be short-lived bipartisanship on the attempted Trump assassination. We say this because if you have watched this committee over the last two years, you know that panel members “MTG” and “AOC” define its tone and tenor. To say it’s partisan doesn’t really do it justice. We’ve been in DC for a long time, and even we can’t imagine the twists and turns of where this committee, on this issue, will go. To us, this committee is, in microcosm, what turns off many centrists who long for more civil and responsible discourse in our politics. Sorry to end on this note, but, as we see it, this is the state of politics in America for the foreseeable future. --- ### Class Dismissed: Reframing Political Bias In Congress - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/class-dismissed-reframing-political-bias-in-congress/ - Published: 2024-01-09 - Updated: 2024-01-09 The critically acclaimed play, Wicked, offers a reminder that broadly presented narratives are generally too readily accepted, despite the fact that they’re often created to sell a specific agenda on behalf of the person or interest group telling the story. The longer that narrative is unchallenged, the more difficult it is to reframe, even when it’s vital to do so. Serving as the prequel to the Wizard of Oz, but released decades later, Wicked is about the difficult upbringing of the witch of the West, who in her later years becomes “malevolent”—or the stereotypically ghoulish character whom audiences have been programmed to hate. As a child, she was bullied for things outside of her control. The “good witch” of the North, as she was portrayed in Oz, was nothing of the kind—in fact, she was responsible for tormenting her “wicked” counterpart. Despite earnest attempts to be part of the “in crowd,” the witch of the West was snubbed as inferior and rejected. Of course, Oz is a fictional place. But to many Americans, Washington, DC — our country’s capital city — has increasingly felt out of reach, and even worlds away from their own life experiences. Why is that? And how often do similar social dynamics from the fictional story of Oz inform political judgments in today’s Washington? Not surprisingly, quite often. But let’s not mince words. We’re talking about bias. Bias in American politics is largely determined by race, sex, religion, and of course, political affiliation. It is also based on class. Specifically, members of Congress who run for election, win, and represent districts populated by lower income, less educated, and less healthy constituents, are often deemed by each party and the apparatus that supports and analyzes Congress to be “extreme.” Which really just encapsulates the range of social dissonance assumed by elite cohorts in Washington (note: by “elite,” we mean Washington’s academic, media, and lobbying establishment). Meanwhile, members of Congress from wealthier districts earn adoration and support from political elites. They are dubbed as more serious, thoughtful, and “moderate,” titles that signal to important people that one possesses a perspicacious temperament worthy of respect. In short, the “moderates” have just the right mix of education, viewpoints, and socio-economic background. So how does this confluence of people manifest itself in Congress? The elite recoil and reject the more extreme members of Congress. The elites discount the decision of voters to send their representative to Washington. Because these members of Congress do not talk, look, or even dress like the elite, their proposals to represent their community have little merit to the “in crowd.” Such bias was long quietly assumed rather than spoken. But with the advent of social media, and transformative social and political changes over the last two decades, it’s now out in the open. We know it’s true because we see it every day. But from the perspective of social science, it’s been difficult to quantify. So we embarked on a novel approach: we decided to examine the Congressional caucuses, formed over time to address political, social, and economic issues of interest to specific groups of members of Congress. To our minds, these groupings helpfully illustrate, in microcosm, the political and intellectual biases now so prevalent in Washington. Here’s a look at our methodology: We examined the major caucuses (six Democratic, four Republican, and two bipartisan) that help shape the agenda in Washington. We first ordered them according to the socioeconomic status of their communities. Then we cross-referenced their power, measured by seniority, with fundraising and political contributions. Here's the kicker, which to most observers is probably intuitive, but here, in our analysis, is supported by empirical data: “moderate” members raise more PAC contributions (which are controlled by government affairs professionals) than members who belong to more partisan, and, as some would have it, “extreme,” caucuses. This is the case even with members who have more experience and influence—for instance, if they are committee chairmen—than their less experienced, “moderate” counterparts. ##### Economics Generally speaking, poorer, majority-white districts elect Republicans while poorer, black, and diverse districts elect Democrats. These are the “safe” seats in each party – meaning it's extremely difficult for the opposing party to win. “Swing districts,” which are diminishing in number, are dominated by wealthier “centrist” voters. Over 60% of toss-up districts are represented by members of the wealthiest caucuses: the Problem Solvers, the New Dem Coalition, and the Tuesday Group. Meanwhile, the more partisan caucuses are populated by the poorest districts. The chart below orders the congressional caucuses we reviewed by average median income to highlight economic disparities. ##### Health Similarly, the Congressional District Health Dashboard shows that the less healthy communities are heavily represented by members in more partisan caucuses, while the healthier ones are dominated by moderate and bipartisan affiliation. The national poverty rate for children in 2021 was 16.9%. The Problem Solvers and Tuesday Group have averages of children in poverty at around 13.8% and 13.7%. In contrast, the Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) average is 21.3%, Republican Study Committee (RSC) is 16.2%, and the Anti-Woke Caucus is 16.5%. In short, the poorer the district, the less healthy it is. Not surprising, then, that these constituents, and the members who represent them, often strike notes discordant to elite sensibilities. You won’t find them talking about “bridging the partisan divide,” or taking stances that “reflect the values and priorities of most Americans” — platitudes common to members from wealthier districts and bipartisan caucuses. For those from more partisan caucuses, it’s more likely that their constituents, rather than luxuriating in easy, high-minded discussion, are just trying to reach an equal quality of life. ##### Power Cross-referencing the socioeconomic backdrop of the caucuses with the levers of power in the Capitol tells an even more interesting story. While the Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) represents the poorest and least healthy constituents, it’s members have the second longest tenure in Congress, with each serving an average six terms in Congress. Only the Blue Dogs (a much smaller caucus of only nine members) has a higher average term in office. Meanwhile, the bipartisan and moderate caucuses that represent wealthier, healthier districts have between two to three fewer average terms in office. In a world free of bias, attention and support would flow to the most senior and influential members of Congress. After all, lobbyists and communications experts are hired to inform and influence Congress. But that’s not what happens. Three of the caucuses with the highest average PAC dollars – which are largely controlled by lobbyists, or groups of influential individuals who determine how to use a corporations’ or wealthy donors’ money– are the less tenured, bipartisan or moderate identifying groups: the Civility & Respect Caucus, the Problem Solvers, the New Dem Coalition, and the Tuesday Group. Although the CBC has one of the highest seniority averages, its members do not receive nearly as many PAC dollars as the Blue Dog Coalition or its other more bipartisan counterparts. Similarly, conservative-aligned caucuses that share very similar socioeconomic conditions as the CBC, such as the Freedom Caucus and the Anti-Woke Caucus, also have among the lowest PAC contributions. Together, the CBC rescued the 2020 presidential campaign of Joe Biden while the Freedom Caucus continues to dominate the Republican conference in the House of Representatives. A heady bunch, you might say, or to the average American observing the comings and goings in the halls of power. But not according to Washington’s political elite. ##### Conclusion In a democracy, such biases, while powerful, aren’t dictatorial. From time to time they are challenged, and successfully so, leaving the elite class frustrated and even more confused about their country than they normally tend to be. The Congressional Black Caucus (the poorest in Congress) is the most influential voting bloc in the Democratic Caucus. The Freedom Caucus (one of the poorest in Congress) has arguably equal power in the Republican Conference. And Washington’s elite, for all its self-imputed wisdom, should take note. Feelings can be a powerful driver of our politics today, but humility and a little hard data can offer a better path for our representative democracy. ##### Statistics *Caucus membership totals were collected in June 2023, and have since changed due to representatives leaving and joining new caucuses. ##### Footnotes Figure 1 See generally U.S. Census, Annual Household Income Data (2023) [https://www.census.gov/mycd/](https://www.census.gov/mycd/) (each caucus was separated and annual household income data was collected from each individual members district within the caucus, each caucus members totals were summed and then averaged). Figure 2 See generally NYU Langone Health, The Congressional District Health Dashboard (2023), [https://www.congressionaldistricthealthdashboard.org/about](https://www.congressionaldistricthealthdashboard.org/about) (each caucus was separated, health and poverty data was compiled by member district for each caucus, summed and averaged by caucus) Figure 3 PAC Data from Open Secrets, Fundraising Totals: Who Raised the Most? (Accessed in 2023) [https://www.opensecrets.org/elections-overview/fundraising-totals.](https://www.opensecrets.org/elections-overview/fundraising-totals.) (each individual member was accessed and recorded for the 2021-2022 cycle, totals were summed and averaged by caucus affiliation). Figure 4 See generally U.S. Census, Annual Household Income Data (2023) [https://www.census.gov/mycd/](https://www.census.gov/mycd/%20)(data from household income for all 435 districts was put into ascending order from highest to lowest, percent calculated from top 100 and bottom 100). Figure 5 Caucus Averages: [https://eig.org/economic-wellbeing-of-congressional-districts/](https://eig.org/economic-wellbeing-of-congressional-districts/) Life Expectancy [https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN) Figure 6 [https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings](https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings) Figure 7 See generally U.S. Census Bureau 2021 American Community Survey 1-year estimates [https://www.census.gov/mycd/](https://www.census.gov/mycd/%20) Figure 8 [https://www.axios.com/2023/04/12/house-democrats-winning-wealthier-districts-middle-class-gop](https://www.axios.com/2023/04/12/house-democrats-winning-wealthier-districts-middle-class-gop) --- ### 10.13.2022 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/weekly_update/washington-update-10-13/ - Published: 2022-10-13 - Updated: 2023-06-23 “Change-Alley bankrupts waddle out lame ducks!” – David Garrick, prologue, “The Maid of Bath,” 1771. Overview As Election Day predictions consume the Beltway, speculation grows alongside them about what will happen in the lame-duck session. Will lawmakers eschew another continuing resolution (CR) and agree to a spending deal? Will Congress pass the annual defense authorization bill? If so, will it include a compromise on permitting reform? What about tax extenders? The debt limit? If November 8th is a “red wave,” will Republicans be in any mood to negotiate at all? Pay attention, because November and December could prove productive, even if a red wave, or something close to it, sweeps in a Republican majority. If some or all the issues in play get punted into the 118th Congress, one might assume that addressing (and passing) them could only grow more difficult. That’s certainly reasonable. For no matter how big a potential Republican victory in November, President Joe Biden will be in the White House for the next two years. One should not expect House Republicans to cut any deals with Speaker Pelosi (D-CA) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY). But remember that, in the lame duck, Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and his conference will still be in the minority, and so it’s possible that an end-of-year deal on spending, tax extenders, and other issues could happen without their support. But note, too, that Speaker Pelosi will only have a three-vote margin in the lame duck. Only a handful of House Republicans, some of whom are retiring, will support an eventual spending deal (only 10 voted for the CR in September). That means Pelosi can ill-afford any defections among key voting blocks in her caucus. Leaders on both sides are surely relieved, for now, that they won’t have to address the debt limit by the end of this year. The Bipartisan Policy Center, according to its updated debt limit model, projects that the new “X Date” will likely arrive no earlier than the third quarter of 2023. Nonetheless, this issue is top of mind for many legislators, who know what’s coming, and it doesn’t look pretty. Spending All focus this November and December will be on the two biggest legislative vehicles, the FY23 National Defense Authorization Act and a deal on appropriations, whether it’s a CR or an omnibus. December 16 is the new deadline to keep government funded, but expect Congress to finish its work by Friday, December 23, before the Christmas weekend. Don’t expect an omnibus to come easily. Yes, Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Patrick Leahy (D-VT) and Ranking Member Richard Shelby (R-AL) are retiring. Many want to deliver a win for them in the form of an omnibus deal. But despite the aura of good feelings, there are still many political and fiscal realities standing in the way. At this stage, negotiators haven’t agreed to a top-line spending number. Republicans continue to push for parity between defense and non-defense spending. They also oppose any new poison-pill policy riders, including eliminating the Hyde amendment, which prohibits taxpayer-funded abortions. Republicans will also set their sights on the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). The Inflation Reduction Act included nearly $80 billion for the IRS to increase audits and tax collection. Republicans turned this into “87,00 new IRS agents,” a potent talking point for their ad-making machine this election cycle. Thus, a key question: will Republicans, who are making IRS funding central to their campaigns, support nearly $13 billion for the IRS, which Senate Democrats are proposing? What about permitting reform? More on this below. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) failed to advance his permitting reform bill on the CR in September. But Manchin is hopeful a deal can be reached, especially for what he wants most: approving the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP). Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) wants the same thing, but she is also canvassing colleagues about provisions in her own permitting bill. Members on both sides have plenty of ideas on the topic, but Manchin and Capito are trying to frame discussions using their bills as bookends. At this stage, getting a deal on a topic fraught with controversy and inserting it into an omnibus is difficult, to say the least. Inserting so-called “air drops” into a conference requires agreement among the “Big Four,” the sobriquet for leaders of the House and Senate. As noted, Speaker Pelosi faced a revolt from nearly 80 members of her caucus over Manchin’s bill riding on the CR, in large part because of the MVP language. One suspects that dynamic won’t change much if MVP is central to any eventual deal. And as with any omnibus, there are multiple competing issues, ranging from abortion to immigration and national security, that by themselves can scuttle agreement on a final bill. The last thing negotiators would need is a bill that inflames the opposition of environmental activists. National Defense Authorization Act This week Senate Armed Services Chair Jack Reed (D-RI) and Ranking Member James Inhofe (R-OK) will unveil the manager’s amendment of the FY 2023 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). Over the last two weeks, Armed Services Committee staff sifted through hundreds of amendments. This process included several other committees, which were involved in clearing or objecting to amendments in their jurisdiction. The next step is an informal conference with the House, which will begin in earnest next week. Negotiators expect to agree on a compromise bill that can pass both chambers during the lame-duck. The conference will try to tackle some weighty issues, including some, as has become customary, considered extraneous to the bill’s scope and purpose. Many are closely watching for a potential agreement on an outbound investment monitor regime. These talks mostly center around Senators John Cornyn (R-TX), Bob Casey (D-PA), Sherrod Brown (D-OH) and Pat Toomey (R-PA). Influencing these discussions is a potential end-of-year executive order by the administration. Can a permitting reform compromise ride on NDAA? At the moment, that seems unlikely. We should note that this NDAA is named after Ranking Member Inhofe, who is retiring this year. He is opposed to Manchin’s bill but is nonetheless open to reforms proposed by Republicans, including Sen. Capito. Even so, a permitting deal would have to be bipartisan and then accepted by the informal House-Senate conference. So far, no deal appears on the horizon. Tax Extenders Discussions around a tax extenders package will commence once members return to DC. Retiring Ways and Means Committee Ranking Member Kevin Brady (R-TX) is likely to stick to his long-held opposition to tax extenders. That means negotiations will likely occur between Ways and Means Chairman Richard Neal (D-MA) and the Senate. The main drivers of a potential deal center around retirement savings promotion and provisions that typically fall into a tax bill. Negotiations could easily get stuck on the enhanced child tax credit and R&D tax credit, both of which passed as part of reconciliation. Various trade-related policies are also up for debate, including Trade Adjustment Assistance, the Miscellaneous Tariff Bill, and the Generalized System of Preferences program. During debate over the CHIPS bill, Senate Finance Chairman Ron Wyden (D-OR) and Ranking Member Mike Crapo (R-ID) agreed to resolve many outstanding trade issues, only to have Chairman Neal dismiss the deal. Should Chairman Neal come back to the table with constructive counterproposals, then talks could resume. Other Issues There are plenty of other issues on the table when Congress returns in November. The Respect of Marriage Act is one, and its proponents expect it could pass once the election comes and goes. Privacy legislation is another. Yet given the lack of support for the House “American Data Privacy and Protection Act” from Speaker Pelosi and Senate Commerce Committee Chair Maria Cantwell (D-WA), it’s difficult to see a comprehensive deal coming together any time soon. Two other issues on the radar: Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s (D-MN) anti-trust legislation, though it seems doubtful the bill can get sufficient Republican support. Also, election certification reform could find its way into an end-of-year legislative package. Finally, when not working on legislation, Majority Leader Schumer will try to confirm judicial and executive branch nominees—possibly his last shot in scheduling the executive calendar. It’s possible that the Senate, as it has done before, could agree to a package of nominees, but that would likely depend on the outcome of the election. Next Year Looking ahead to the 118th Congress, here are some themes and issues to expect if Republicans take the House: - Economy and inflation - Supply chain - China - Energy independence - ESG - Securing the border and building the southern border wall - Funding approximately 200,000 more police officers - Law-and-order legislation - Rebuild the military to the previous administration’s levels - “Parents Bill of Rights,” with a focus on respect for schools and education - Bolstering legislation around the CURES Act - Increased funding for telemedicine - Data security - Privacy legislation and crack-down on big-tech --- ### 9.20.2022 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/weekly_update/9-20-2022-washington-update/ - Published: 2022-09-20 - Updated: 2023-06-23 “I’m certainly not minimizing the impact that inflation, that the cost of food, that the cost of gas and all of those things obviously have a very significant impact on an individual or on a family, but losing your right to reproductive freedom. I mean, once that’s gone, it’s gone.” – Dana Nessel, Michigan Attorney General, September 13, 2022 “It’s the economy, stupid.” James Carville, 1992 “Let them eat cake.” Marie Antoinette, 1789 Outlook: Michigan AG Dana Nessel’s framing of the choice voters will make in about 50 days seems to be the byword for the mid-term elections—at least for the Democrats. We don’t minimize abortion as an issue in November, but will it trump (to use a word) the economic concerns of everyday Americans, especially those in states that matter electorally, and who continue to be burned by high inflation? Or for that matter, crime? Forgive the generalization, but it captures political reality: Democrats are the party of the coasts (L.A., New York, D.C.) and Republicans the party of fly-over country (Tulsa, Omaha, Wapakoneta). To put it mildly, voters in these regions have different priorities. How are these respective constituencies thinking about the issues most important to them? Here’s one relevant example from the heartland: the results of a September 6-12 YouGov poll of likely voters in Pennsylvania. Here is the breakdown of the “most important issues”: - Economy – 80% - Inflation – 77% - Crime – 65% - Election issues – 64% - Guns – 61% - Abortion – 56% Economy, inflation, crime—to us, these priorities will likely persist for the next 7 weeks. Again, this is not to say, as the above numbers suggest, that abortion can be ignored. Far from it: Republicans’ tone and messaging on the issue is confused, at best. Post Dobbs, the GOP’s positions, on some aspects of the issue, have significant popular support (e.g., opposition to partial-birth abortion, parental notification, etc.). But they aren’t conveying them well—in many cases, they’re simply not conveying them at all. Republicans must get their act together on this issue, or else it could prove an albatross that will cost them some key races, especially in the Senate. But as we look at the data, in the areas of the country that really matter—by which we mean those areas that will determine which party will control Congress in 2023—Dana Nessel’s message could seem, at least to some voters, as a bit off the mark. That, at least, is what Republican members and staff tell us. Nessel’s attitude, in the GOP view, creates an opening. In our conversations, Republicans say that Democrats are making a fundamental mistake: they are telling voters what their priority ought to be—abortion rights—rather than listening to their concerns and responding with policies to reduce exorbitant rent, grocery, and electricity bills and keep criminals off the streets. In other words, Republicans repeatedly tell us, Democrats are living in a Marie Antoinette moment, and it can be summed up as: “Let them eat cake, if they can afford it.” All this may be true. Yet Republicans are not immune to this tendency. One need only recall Sen. Lindsey Graham’s (R-SC) press conference announcing a national abortion ban after 15 weeks—a stance that collides directly with the GOP message on inflation and the economy (not to mention the longtime GOP policy that abortion policy should be left to the states). This could be characterized as, “Let them eat cake, but only after they take their medicine first.” Beyond Pennsylvania, we wonder how inflation is playing in key battlegrounds. Certainly, the overall inflation number in August—8.3 percent—was bad news for the party in power. But dig deeper and you’ll find something even more telling. As Bloomberg reported, inflation in Phoenix soared to 13 percent in August, “a record for any city in data going back 20 years.” Also significant: this figure is more than twice as high as San Francisco. “Other cities across the South and Southwest,” Bloomberg found, “saw double-digit increases in consumer prices, with the Atlanta metropolitan area posting annual inflation of 11.7% and Miami reaching 10.7%, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics [data](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t04.htm).” Yes, 8.3% is bad, but these numbers are much worse. Inflation is positively crushing voters in Arizona, Georgia, and Florida, all states with important Senate races. It’s hard to think that inflation won’t be a dominant issue there. Of course, all three Senate races are hotly contested, with the GOP behind in Arizona and neck-and-neck in Georgia and Florida. Will anger over inflation eventually win the day for Republicans? Right now, it's hard to tell. So, let’s drill deeper. Sometimes the Consumer Price Index doesn’t quite capture the reality on the ground. Consider Cleveland, Ohio. As Jess Morgan of the Greater Cleveland Food Bank lamented in August, “We’re serving more people right now than we did at the height of pandemic in calendar year 2020, and a lot of that has to do with the fact that gas is more expensive, food is more expensive, utilities are more expensive.” Morgan said a case of green beans used to be $9.99, now the Food Bank is paying almost $20. The coasts aren’t feeling quite this level of pain. In San Francisco, “consumer prices rose 5.7% in the 12 months through August,” while in Los Angeles “the rate was 7.6%.” In the New York city metro area, “prices rose 6.6%, a slight acceleration from 6.5% in July.” We don’t mean to diminish these numbers. But the point is that the disparate inflationary impacts between the coasts and the rest of the country help explain the difference in tone, approach, and messaging the two parties are taking as November approaches. One party emphasizes inflation and crime, the other abortion. Which will matter more? Of course, Democrats point to momentum in the past few months, especially around passage of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). But, as Republicans tell us, voters will be skeptical to indifferent about a prescription drug policy that won’t show results until well beyond November, while $380 billion in climate change spending will prove Democrats are “out of touch.” By the same token, the Democratic base is clearly enthusiastic about this bill. So how will the IRA play in November? As we’ve observed over the years, after Labor Day, elections typically get boiled down to a few pivotal questions, focused on a few key issues. The rest is noise. For us, then, the foregoing questions are what we’re focused on. How they get answered will largely determine the outcome in November. Congress: Congress returns this week and will continue working towards passing a continuing resolution (CR) ahead of the September 30th deadline next Friday. The CR will fund the government through December 16th. A big question remains: What else will be hitching a ride? Funding for the war in Ukraine, most likely. The Biden Administration proposed $13.7 billion ($11.7 billion for Ukraine, $2 billion for domestic energy needs as a result of the Ukraine war), while Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) on Sunday called for $12 billion. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) signaled conditional support, cautioning that the GOP will have to see how much is geared to helping Ukraine. Disaster relief is still under consideration. However, the Biden Administration’s request for COVID and Monkeypox funding is encountering Republican resistance, with many Republicans calling on the Administration to repurpose unused COVID funding, especially since President Biden this week declared on 60 Minutes, “The pandemic is over.” What of Sen. Manchin’s permitting reform bill? Not likely, in our view. Manchin can’t seem to overcome progressive opposition in the House, while few if any Republicans in the Senate appear willing to help. As Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY), ranking member of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, put it, “If you [Sen. Manchin] are now looking for Republicans to support and give you more cover than you have right now, you are not going to find it with us.” Meanwhile, Manchin has lost Sen. Ed Markey (D-MA) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT). National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA): Both leaders of the Senate Armed Services Committee want to see the 2023 NDAA move this month. However, they face long odds given the Senate’s focus on the CR. The limited window for action along with the desire of members to get home for the final stretch of campaigning will most likely punt NDAA until after the November elections. --- ### 7.11.2022 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/weekly_update/7-11-2022-washington-update/ - Published: 2022-07-11 - Updated: 2026-08-11 Future House Republican Agenda: With the Beltway engrossed—yet again—in the endless daily speculations about the metaphysical state of Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-WV) mind, we thought we’d take a different tack and provide a possible picture of the next Congress. For this exercise, we’re focused on the House. Assuming current voter attitudes hold—according to an astonishing Monmouth poll, nearly 9 in 10 voters think the country is on the wrong track—Republicans are in a commanding position to retake the House in November. Obviously, that means the legislative and political agenda will change, but maybe not in the way many assume. Change is always unsettling. Seeking the ballast of certainty, some think that with a House Republican majority, what’s past is prologue. What’s coming, in other words, is merely a variation on the age of Gingrich, Boehner, and Ryan. Put another way, for the GOP, the thinking goes, the business of America is business. Not necessarily. For House Republicans, it’s probably more accurate to say: the business of America is small business. And even more fundamentally, according to the Republicans we talk with, are the recent high-profile fights over what they derisively call “corporate wokeism.” These fights, in this view, represent an epic clash for the heart and soul of America. Beltway insiders therefore should expect a populist backlash that could take some in the business community by surprise. What would this mean in practice? Probably the best way to capture what’s coming are these three letters: ESG, which stand for “environment, social, and governance.” It’s not our place to enter into this heated debate. We’re merely describing Republicans who tell us that ESG is a philosophical, indeed in some cases an ideological, movement against free markets, traditional mores, and the American energy industry (read: oil, gas, and coal). As these Republicans see it, ESG is the catch-all for a movement arrayed against the interests of their constituents in red America. Corporate power—again, in their view—is being wielded for the benefit of an elite few that remain, by conscious choice, several steps removed from the daily concerns of ordinary citizens. High prices for gas, groceries, and much else—Republicans see these indicators as symptoms of wokeness run amok. And they will use their newfound power to fight on behalf of the voters who put them in charge. This dynamic is real, and it will be felt in legislation passed and oversight hearings held, some of it directly targeting companies who are viewed as instigators and bullies in the culture wars. This posture will undoubtedly change how CEOs and trade associations interact with the new Republican majority—and vice versa. Administration officials, such as Securities and Exchange Commission chair Gary Gensler, will also feel burdened by Republican oversight with near-continuous requests to testify in front of lawmakers in an attempt to wear them down and slow down Biden’s regulatory efforts. It is also important to understand leadership in the House GOP. Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), if he is elected as Speaker by his peers, will not intervene and micromanage his committee chairs. In contrast to the top-down approach of Speakers John Boehner (R-OH) and Paul Ryan (R-WI), McCarthy will let committees work their will, and develop their own legislative and oversight priorities. He will task them with getting consensus within the conference, rather than twisting arms to enforce his will from on high. Below we delineate some of the issues and concepts we expect from GOP committee chairs. This agenda has been painstakingly developed for months by various ranking members. Throughout August, House Republicans will participate in listening tour events with constituents and road test policies and themes the task forces have been crafting. This will end in September with the official rollout of the “Commitment to America” policy agenda. There will be four key areas: Success for Our Kids, Safe Communities, A Secure Economy, and Accountability in Government. With the Biden Administration in power, Republicans will use the task forces not just to paint a stark contrast on the campaign trail but to govern—and to do so starting on Day 1. This will no doubt include legislation as well as checks and balances through strict oversight of President Biden’s policies. Buckets: Keep Communities Safe; A Pro-Growth Economy; Strong Future for Households: - Expand access to telemedicine. - Focus on mental health. - Opioid/Fentanyl treatment and prevention of importing across borders. - Strengthen and modernize the country’s medical stockpile to prepare for future pandemics. - Oppose efforts to defund the police. - Recommend increased funding for police training, community policing, and police equipment. - Demand punishment for violent crimes. - Rebuild our military to Trump-era levels. - Strong focus on the border – demanding the administration do more. - Remain in Mexico policy. - Finish the wall. - Modernize immigration laws. - Strong focus on small businesses. - Stop Build Back Better. - Restore energy independence and lower these gas prices. - Establish and reinforce strong power grids. - ESG legislation/clarification that hits multiple business sectors. - Extend the child tax credit for families. - Opportunity Zone credits in distressed communities. - Focus on innovative tax policies that encourage American technology growth. - Free speech: with a focus on “woke” culture/tech/censorship. - Antitrust issues. - Privacy and data security. Big Focus on China: - Implement as many of the China Task Force recommendations as possible. - Focus on supply chain with respect to medicine, protective medical equipment, and technology out of China. - Focus on domestic critical mineral production. - Increased domestic manufacturing. - Establish a supply chain that makes us less reliable to China or other nations. Other items: - Opportunities for free and fair trade deals - in the model of USMCA. - Efforts to bring high-speed internet to every household in the country. - Promote school choice. - Pass the Parents Bill of Rights. - With respect to infrastructure – not just money. But a goal of cutting the permitting process time in half. - Skills/workforce legislation to make it easy for the American workforce to acquire a good-paying job. Technical education legislation. Oversight: - Republicans are of the belief that the White House is already deciding what it can do on its own. If they move forward with heavy executive action – look for the Republicans on the Hill to add some of those actions to the oversight calendar. - Also, the border, Afghanistan withdrawal, etc. will be on the agenda most likely. --- ### 7.11.2022 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/7-11-2022-washington-update/ - Published: 2022-07-11 - Updated: 2023-06-23 Future House Republican Agenda: With the Beltway engrossed—yet again—in the endless daily speculations about the metaphysical state of Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-WV) mind, we thought we’d take a different tack and provide a possible picture of the next Congress. For this exercise, we’re focused on the House. Assuming current voter attitudes hold—according to an astonishing Monmouth poll, nearly 9 in 10 voters think the country is on the wrong track—Republicans are in a commanding position to retake the House in November. Obviously, that means the legislative and political agenda will change, but maybe not in the way many assume. Change is always unsettling. Seeking the ballast of certainty, some think that with a House Republican majority, what’s past is prologue. What’s coming, in other words, is merely a variation on the age of Gingrich, Boehner, and Ryan. Put another way, for the GOP, the thinking goes, the business of America is business. Not necessarily. For House Republicans, it’s probably more accurate to say: the business of America is small business. And even more fundamentally, according to the Republicans we talk with, are the recent high-profile fights over what they derisively call “corporate wokeism.” These fights, in this view, represent an epic clash for the heart and soul of America. Beltway insiders therefore should expect a populist backlash that could take some in the business community by surprise. What would this mean in practice? Probably the best way to capture what’s coming are these three letters: ESG, which stand for “environment, social, and governance.” It’s not our place to enter into this heated debate. We’re merely describing Republicans who tell us that ESG is a philosophical, indeed in some cases an ideological, movement against free markets, traditional mores, and the American energy industry (read: oil, gas, and coal). As these Republicans see it, ESG is the catch-all for a movement arrayed against the interests of their constituents in red America. Corporate power—again, in their view—is being wielded for the benefit of an elite few that remain, by conscious choice, several steps removed from the daily concerns of ordinary citizens. High prices for gas, groceries, and much else—Republicans see these indicators as symptoms of wokeness run amok. And they will use their newfound power to fight on behalf of the voters who put them in charge. This dynamic is real, and it will be felt in legislation passed and oversight hearings held, some of it directly targeting companies who are viewed as instigators and bullies in the culture wars. This posture will undoubtedly change how CEOs and trade associations interact with the new Republican majority—and vice versa. Administration officials, such as Securities and Exchange Commission chair Gary Gensler, will also feel burdened by Republican oversight with near-continuous requests to testify in front of lawmakers in an attempt to wear them down and slow down Biden’s regulatory efforts. It is also important to understand leadership in the House GOP. Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), if he is elected as Speaker by his peers, will not intervene and micromanage his committee chairs. In contrast to the top-down approach of Speakers John Boehner (R-OH) and Paul Ryan (R-WI), McCarthy will let committees work their will, and develop their own legislative and oversight priorities. He will task them with getting consensus within the conference, rather than twisting arms to enforce his will from on high. Below we delineate some of the issues and concepts we expect from GOP committee chairs. This agenda has been painstakingly developed for months by various ranking members. Throughout August, House Republicans will participate in listening tour events with constituents and road test policies and themes the task forces have been crafting. This will end in September with the official rollout of the “Commitment to America” policy agenda. There will be four key areas: Success for Our Kids, Safe Communities, A Secure Economy, and Accountability in Government. With the Biden Administration in power, Republicans will use the task forces not just to paint a stark contrast on the campaign trail but to govern—and to do so starting on Day 1. This will no doubt include legislation as well as checks and balances through strict oversight of President Biden’s policies. Buckets: Keep Communities Safe; A Pro-Growth Economy; Strong Future for Households: - Expand access to telemedicine. - Focus on mental health. - Opioid/Fentanyl treatment and prevention of importing across borders. - Strengthen and modernize the country’s medical stockpile to prepare for future pandemics. - Oppose efforts to defund the police. - Recommend increased funding for police training, community policing, and police equipment. - Demand punishment for violent crimes. - Rebuild our military to Trump-era levels. - Strong focus on the border – demanding the administration do more. - Remain in Mexico policy. - Finish the wall. - Modernize immigration laws. - Strong focus on small businesses. - Stop Build Back Better. - Restore energy independence and lower these gas prices. - Establish and reinforce strong power grids. - ESG legislation/clarification that hits multiple business sectors. - Extend the child tax credit for families. - Opportunity Zone credits in distressed communities. - Focus on innovative tax policies that encourage American technology growth. - Free speech: with a focus on “woke” culture/tech/censorship. - Antitrust issues. - Privacy and data security. Big Focus on China: - Implement as many of the China Task Force recommendations as possible. - Focus on supply chain with respect to medicine, protective medical equipment, and technology out of China. - Focus on domestic critical mineral production. - Increased domestic manufacturing. - Establish a supply chain that makes us less reliable to China or other nations. Other items: - Opportunities for free and fair trade deals - in the model of USMCA. - Efforts to bring high-speed internet to every household in the country. - Promote school choice. - Pass the Parents Bill of Rights. - With respect to infrastructure – not just money. But a goal of cutting the permitting process time in half. - Skills/workforce legislation to make it easy for the American workforce to acquire a good-paying job. Technical education legislation. Oversight: - Republicans are of the belief that the White House is already deciding what it can do on its own. If they move forward with heavy executive action – look for the Republicans on the Hill to add some of those actions to the oversight calendar. - Also, the border, Afghanistan withdrawal, etc. will be on the agenda most likely. --- ### 06.16.2022 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/weekly_update/6-16-2022-washington-update/ - Published: 2022-06-16 - Updated: 2026-08-11 Guns - To us, concerning the “agreement in principle” on guns, the most interesting political question is not whether the Senate can, or will, pass the eventual bill that reflects that agreement, but how many Republicans vote will for it. Also of note: among the ten Senate Republicans who helped craft the agreement, four are retiring (Blunt, Toomey, Burr, and Portman); five have been known to break from the party base on key issues (Romney, Collins, Tillis, Graham, and Cassidy); and one is positioning to succeed Sen. Mitch McConnell (KY) as Senate party leader (Cornyn). In other words, while it appears, as of now, that the Senate will have 60 votes to clear a potential filibuster to the gun bill, it is reasonable to assume that the bill may not reflect where the conservative base stands. Violating base orthodoxy on a fundamental issue such as the Second Amendment usually has, to varying degrees, electoral implications, but it’s doubtful, given the state of the country and the economy, that base voters, because of this vote, will cut and run in November. At the moment, this is speculation, given we don’t even have a bill. As Sen. Mike Rounds (R-SD) put it, “the devil’s in the details.” From a political perspective, that is, from the party base perspective, the most problematic aspect of the agreement is support for state “red flag” laws. We take no position on this issue, but only note that base voters see insidious designs behind such measures—fearing that such laws, no matter how carefully written, could encompass those who simply hold conservative views. Many might quibble with, or even mock, this concern—but it’s a concern we hear expressed by the Republican members and staff we talk with, who are hearing it from their constituents. Again, without a bill, it’s difficult to say how Republicans will ultimately vote. But it’s probably a safe bet that the vast majority of House Republicans will oppose whatever measure emerges. As to when such a measure emerges—that’s a big question. Pressure in the Senate, from the group of 20 in any case, to write and then agree to text, is considerable. As is the pressure to vote on the eventual bill before the Senate breaks for the July 4 recess, later next week. All of this is a tall order, to be sure. One can easily imagine legislative text leaking and causing a stir among interest groups, on both the left and the right; and then the process getting bogged down by party infighting and the bill getting lost in a vortex of mutual recrimination. But the bipartisan group that hashed out the agreement is at least publicly confident that any such partisan and political obstacles can be overcome. Outlook - To be sure, the gun debate complicates the already crowded Senate schedule for the remainder of the summer. The outlook for a reconciliation deal­­­­­­­­­ probably doesn’t get any brighter with a week spent on guns and at least another spent dealing with a Supreme Court decision looming on Roe v. Wade. As far as reconciliation goes, the best we can piece together, from an admittedly limited GOP perspective, is the buzz that discussions between Senators Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Chuck Schumer (D-NY) may be centering around healthcare, to the exclusion of climate provisions. In any event, with Manchin demanding some significant portion of the deal be devoted to deficit reduction, there could be little room left after health care for a robust climate title—at least not the $500 billion for climate-focused tax credits that the bill’s authors originally envisioned. Whatever remains of the latter will likely be stripped of direct pay, union giveaways, and only those tax credits that Manchin can boast have bipartisan support (e.g., 45Q, hydrogen, possibly wind and solar). So what else is on tap in July? The lobbying world is aflutter with speculation about the massive China bill conference. To date, meetings among staff have yielded little beyond talk, with the House Ways and Means and Senate Finance Committees probably having the most advanced discussions around trade and whether to include tax provisions in a final package. Even so, that’s not saying much. We continue to hear that an eventual bill, should one materialize, will likely land on the Senate’s bipartisan “CHIPS for America Act,” which authorizes $52 billion for domestic semiconductor chip manufacturing, along with a few additional bells and whistles. Just when that will happen remains up in the air. But the idea that the conference, with over 100 members, wraps in agreement, followed by a vote in each chamber, with a final bill going to President Biden’s desk, all before the August recess, appears, at this juncture, exceedingly optimistic, to put it mildly. --- ### 06.16.2022 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/06-16-2022-washington-update/ - Published: 2022-06-16 - Updated: 2023-06-23 Guns - To us, concerning the “agreement in principle” on guns, the most interesting political question is not whether the Senate can, or will, pass the eventual bill that reflects that agreement, but how many Republicans vote will for it. Also of note: among the ten Senate Republicans who helped craft the agreement, four are retiring (Blunt, Toomey, Burr, and Portman); five have been known to break from the party base on key issues (Romney, Collins, Tillis, Graham, and Cassidy); and one is positioning to succeed Sen. Mitch McConnell (KY) as Senate party leader (Cornyn). In other words, while it appears, as of now, that the Senate will have 60 votes to clear a potential filibuster to the gun bill, it is reasonable to assume that the bill may not reflect where the conservative base stands. Violating base orthodoxy on a fundamental issue such as the Second Amendment usually has, to varying degrees, electoral implications, but it’s doubtful, given the state of the country and the economy, that base voters, because of this vote, will cut and run in November. At the moment, this is speculation, given we don’t even have a bill. As Sen. Mike Rounds (R-SD) put it, “the devil’s in the details.” From a political perspective, that is, from the party base perspective, the most problematic aspect of the agreement is support for state “red flag” laws. We take no position on this issue, but only note that base voters see insidious designs behind such measures—fearing that such laws, no matter how carefully written, could encompass those who simply hold conservative views. Many might quibble with, or even mock, this concern—but it’s a concern we hear expressed by the Republican members and staff we talk with, who are hearing it from their constituents. Again, without a bill, it’s difficult to say how Republicans will ultimately vote. But it’s probably a safe bet that the vast majority of House Republicans will oppose whatever measure emerges. As to when such a measure emerges—that’s a big question. Pressure in the Senate, from the group of 20 in any case, to write and then agree to text, is considerable. As is the pressure to vote on the eventual bill before the Senate breaks for the July 4 recess, later next week. All of this is a tall order, to be sure. One can easily imagine legislative text leaking and causing a stir among interest groups, on both the left and the right; and then the process getting bogged down by party infighting and the bill getting lost in a vortex of mutual recrimination. But the bipartisan group that hashed out the agreement is at least publicly confident that any such partisan and political obstacles can be overcome. Outlook - To be sure, the gun debate complicates the already crowded Senate schedule for the remainder of the summer. The outlook for a reconciliation deal­­­­­­­­­ probably doesn’t get any brighter with a week spent on guns and at least another spent dealing with a Supreme Court decision looming on Roe v. Wade. As far as reconciliation goes, the best we can piece together, from an admittedly limited GOP perspective, is the buzz that discussions between Senators Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Chuck Schumer (D-NY) may be centering around healthcare, to the exclusion of climate provisions. In any event, with Manchin demanding some significant portion of the deal be devoted to deficit reduction, there could be little room left after health care for a robust climate title—at least not the $500 billion for climate-focused tax credits that the bill’s authors originally envisioned. Whatever remains of the latter will likely be stripped of direct pay, union giveaways, and only those tax credits that Manchin can boast have bipartisan support (e.g., 45Q, hydrogen, possibly wind and solar). So what else is on tap in July? The lobbying world is aflutter with speculation about the massive China bill conference. To date, meetings among staff have yielded little beyond talk, with the House Ways and Means and Senate Finance Committees probably having the most advanced discussions around trade and whether to include tax provisions in a final package. Even so, that’s not saying much. We continue to hear that an eventual bill, should one materialize, will likely land on the Senate’s bipartisan “CHIPS for America Act,” which authorizes $52 billion for domestic semiconductor chip manufacturing, along with a few additional bells and whistles. Just when that will happen remains up in the air. But the idea that the conference, with over 100 members, wraps in agreement, followed by a vote in each chamber, with a final bill going to President Biden’s desk, all before the August recess, appears, at this juncture, exceedingly optimistic, to put it mildly. --- ### 5.25.2022 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/weekly_update/5-25-2022-washington-update/ - Published: 2022-05-25 - Updated: 2026-08-11 “This is the way the world ends. Not with a bang, but a whimper.” T.S. Eliot Outlook – How will Congress proceed into the August recess, just as campaign season rushes in? With a bang, or a whimper? The list of potential bills ranges from the mighty to the mundane. But time is running out. Here’s our take on the next two months: Build Back Better: It’s Washington’s waning, deflating obsession, and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WVA) is at it again. In Davos (of all places), Manchin signaled (once again) his openness to a deal to revive President Biden’s signature legislative initiative. The elements, according to Manchin (once again), are prescription drugs, addressing inflation and deficit reduction, and energy and climate change. Don’t hold your breath. Aside from Manchin’s meandering, time, among much else, is always critical in reconciliation discussions. A factor of some importance: with just three months until the Sept. 30 deadline, will there be sufficient time to demonstrate a meaningful budgetary impact in FY 2022? If not, Democrats risk losing their reconciliation protections. Another factor: Republicans would love nothing more than a vote-a-rama in late July or August, subjecting vulnerable Democrats in cycle to a seemingly endless series of painful votes on, among other issues, energy prices, immigration, baby formula, crime, education, fentanyl, covid mandates, and inflation. (Note: it’s certainly possible Republicans could break budget points-of-order on these issues). Finally, Manchin continues to mention “fossil” in the same breath as “energy and climate” when talking reconciliation. But adding policy on pipelines, more domestic drilling, and regulatory rollbacks must be shoehorned into budgetary shape, which is complicated, to say the least. Manchin-Murkowski: To overcome possible Byrd-rule objections, Manchin has teamed up with Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) to find a potential 60-vote pathway on energy and climate policy. The duo has convened a bipartisan group of senators, who have had several meetings, but with little focus and direction. We expect these talks to continue but remain skeptical that any concrete legislative package emerges soon, or even this year. Everything we hear from staff involved is that these talks could lay a foundation for some sort of energy and climate deal next year. China competitiveness legislation: Much of the June work period will revolve around conference negotiations aimed at resolving House-Senate differences on China competitiveness legislation. For starters, any conference with over 100 members, involving nearly every committee on the Hill, will take time. To date, little of consequence has occurred. We expect serious activity to commence just after Memorial Day recess. While the press has been circulating documents that propose various deadlines for conferees to meet, the reality is that each chair and ranking member will work at their own pace. All parties involved recognize that a deal before August recess is the goal, but this next work period will determine if that timeline is feasible. Our sense, at least at this stage, is that it’s not. If anything, politics could affect timing. Do Republicans really want to hand Joe Biden a “win” on China before November? This conference will have to tackle some weighty issues. High on the list is whether the eventual conference report will include a tax title—many on both sides want one, but Rep. Kevin Brady (R-TX), ranking member of the Ways and Means Committee, who commands great respect among House Republicans, is opposed. Also, we expect to hear a lot more about the need to extend Trade Adjustment Assistance in the coming weeks as it expires on July 1. So, what does all this portend? A lame duck deal? If Republicans have a big election night in November, they may not be in a mood to compromise. At least that’s likely to be the case for House Republicans. As for the Senate, that’s a different story. In any event, one should not assume that December necessarily creates a “clear-the-decks” mentality to pass unfinished business, including this bill. The idea that retiring centrists will dictate a final deal after a landslide election seems far-fetched. Leader McCarthy’s potential election for the speakership could also play a factor. Appropriations: House Appropriations subcommittees could move to mark up spending legislation in June. We don’t expect much, if any, regular order spending activity in the Senate. The prospects for a Covid supplemental bill are dim, as Republicans continue to insist on tying the issue to Title 42 and immigration. Moreover, our understanding is that some pay-fors that were previously under discussion are now off the table, making it much harder to reach a deal. Democrats also may cobble together a border supplemental bill to address the influx of summer migrants—an issue that polls consistently show is among the top concerns of voters. The administration is also considering making its appropriations request next month, which could act as a catalyst for legislation. This all comes in the wake of differences among Democrats, particularly from those facing voters in November, over the administration’s handling of Title 42. Notwithstanding COVID and immigration, we expect a continuing resolution to pass in September, punting the budget into the lame duck. As noted earlier, with the election results behind them, it’s not clear if Republicans will submit to a deal or wait until 2023 to seek a better deal. NDAA: Work on the FY23 National Defense Authorization Act will commence on June 8 when the House Armed Services Committee begins its subcommittee markups. A full committee markup will be on June 22. The Senate Armed Services Committee will not be far behind. The question, then, is whether the House and Senate can pass their respective bills before August—for now, the outlook for both bills is unclear. Nominations: As always, nominations will be a priority for the White House and Senate Democrats, especially judges. Nominees for the Securities and Exchange Commission and Michael Barr to be Vice-Chair for Supervision at the Federal Reserve will get top billing in the coming weeks. FCC nominee Gigi Sohn continues to struggle to gain the support needed to advance her nomination. We’ll also be watching the nomination of Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Chairman Rich Glick. Questions abound whether he has the full support of Sen. Manchin, chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. It’s too early to tell, but we think there’s a decent chance Republicans mount unanimous opposition to Glick, who, in their minds, has become the chief architect of Biden’s energy policy. It’s certainly possible that Glick, along with many of the 200-plus nominees awaiting either committee or floor action, could get corralled into an end-of-year nominations package, as has become fairly typical in the Senate. Anti-trust legislation: Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) may begin debate on Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) and Sen. Chuck Grassley’s (R-IA) anti-trust legislation, the “American Innovation and Choice Online Act.” Senators Klobuchar and Grassley have been working on modifying their initial proposal to garner more support after a divided markup in the Senate Judiciary Committee. Getting 60 votes for cloture on the motion to proceed will be a tall order. Senators would certainly fight for a robust and time-consuming amendment process given the magnitude of the legislation. Supreme Court: Overshadowing the entire June work period is the Supreme Court, which many expect, based on the recent leak of a draft decision, will overturn Roe v. Wade. The decision will likely be released later in June. If Roe is overturned, as many in the media are reporting it could be, Democrats could have additional votes on related legislation, which would crowd out a good deal of the limited Senate floor schedule. --- ### 5.25.2022 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/5-25-2022-washington-update/ - Published: 2022-05-25 - Updated: 2023-06-23 “This is the way the world ends. Not with a bang, but a whimper.” T.S. Eliot Outlook – How will Congress proceed into the August recess, just as campaign season rushes in? With a bang, or a whimper? The list of potential bills ranges from the mighty to the mundane. But time is running out. Here’s our take on the next two months: Build Back Better: It’s Washington’s waning, deflating obsession, and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WVA) is at it again. In Davos (of all places), Manchin signaled (once again) his openness to a deal to revive President Biden’s signature legislative initiative. The elements, according to Manchin (once again), are prescription drugs, addressing inflation and deficit reduction, and energy and climate change. Don’t hold your breath. Aside from Manchin’s meandering, time, among much else, is always critical in reconciliation discussions. A factor of some importance: with just three months until the Sept. 30 deadline, will there be sufficient time to demonstrate a meaningful budgetary impact in FY 2022? If not, Democrats risk losing their reconciliation protections. Another factor: Republicans would love nothing more than a vote-a-rama in late July or August, subjecting vulnerable Democrats in cycle to a seemingly endless series of painful votes on, among other issues, energy prices, immigration, baby formula, crime, education, fentanyl, covid mandates, and inflation. (Note: it’s certainly possible Republicans could break budget points-of-order on these issues). Finally, Manchin continues to mention “fossil” in the same breath as “energy and climate” when talking reconciliation. But adding policy on pipelines, more domestic drilling, and regulatory rollbacks must be shoehorned into budgetary shape, which is complicated, to say the least. Manchin-Murkowski: To overcome possible Byrd-rule objections, Manchin has teamed up with Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) to find a potential 60-vote pathway on energy and climate policy. The duo has convened a bipartisan group of senators, who have had several meetings, but with little focus and direction. We expect these talks to continue but remain skeptical that any concrete legislative package emerges soon, or even this year. Everything we hear from staff involved is that these talks could lay a foundation for some sort of energy and climate deal next year. China competitiveness legislation: Much of the June work period will revolve around conference negotiations aimed at resolving House-Senate differences on China competitiveness legislation. For starters, any conference with over 100 members, involving nearly every committee on the Hill, will take time. To date, little of consequence has occurred. We expect serious activity to commence just after Memorial Day recess. While the press has been circulating documents that propose various deadlines for conferees to meet, the reality is that each chair and ranking member will work at their own pace. All parties involved recognize that a deal before August recess is the goal, but this next work period will determine if that timeline is feasible. Our sense, at least at this stage, is that it’s not. If anything, politics could affect timing. Do Republicans really want to hand Joe Biden a “win” on China before November? This conference will have to tackle some weighty issues. High on the list is whether the eventual conference report will include a tax title—many on both sides want one, but Rep. Kevin Brady (R-TX), ranking member of the Ways and Means Committee, who commands great respect among House Republicans, is opposed. Also, we expect to hear a lot more about the need to extend Trade Adjustment Assistance in the coming weeks as it expires on July 1. So, what does all this portend? A lame duck deal? If Republicans have a big election night in November, they may not be in a mood to compromise. At least that’s likely to be the case for House Republicans. As for the Senate, that’s a different story. In any event, one should not assume that December necessarily creates a “clear-the-decks” mentality to pass unfinished business, including this bill. The idea that retiring centrists will dictate a final deal after a landslide election seems far-fetched. Leader McCarthy’s potential election for the speakership could also play a factor. Appropriations: House Appropriations subcommittees could move to mark up spending legislation in June. We don’t expect much, if any, regular order spending activity in the Senate. The prospects for a Covid supplemental bill are dim, as Republicans continue to insist on tying the issue to Title 42 and immigration. Moreover, our understanding is that some pay-fors that were previously under discussion are now off the table, making it much harder to reach a deal. Democrats also may cobble together a border supplemental bill to address the influx of summer migrants—an issue that polls consistently show is among the top concerns of voters. The administration is also considering making its appropriations request next month, which could act as a catalyst for legislation. This all comes in the wake of differences among Democrats, particularly from those facing voters in November, over the administration’s handling of Title 42. Notwithstanding COVID and immigration, we expect a continuing resolution to pass in September, punting the budget into the lame duck. As noted earlier, with the election results behind them, it’s not clear if Republicans will submit to a deal or wait until 2023 to seek a better deal. NDAA: Work on the FY23 National Defense Authorization Act will commence on June 8 when the House Armed Services Committee begins its subcommittee markups. A full committee markup will be on June 22. The Senate Armed Services Committee will not be far behind. The question, then, is whether the House and Senate can pass their respective bills before August—for now, the outlook for both bills is unclear. Nominations: As always, nominations will be a priority for the White House and Senate Democrats, especially judges. Nominees for the Securities and Exchange Commission and Michael Barr to be Vice-Chair for Supervision at the Federal Reserve will get top billing in the coming weeks. FCC nominee Gigi Sohn continues to struggle to gain the support needed to advance her nomination. We’ll also be watching the nomination of Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Chairman Rich Glick. Questions abound whether he has the full support of Sen. Manchin, chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. It’s too early to tell, but we think there’s a decent chance Republicans mount unanimous opposition to Glick, who, in their minds, has become the chief architect of Biden’s energy policy. It's certainly possible that Glick, along with many of the 200-plus nominees awaiting either committee or floor action, could get corralled into an end-of-year nominations package, as has become fairly typical in the Senate. Anti-trust legislation: Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) may begin debate on Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) and Sen. Chuck Grassley’s (R-IA) anti-trust legislation, the “American Innovation and Choice Online Act.” Senators Klobuchar and Grassley have been working on modifying their initial proposal to garner more support after a divided markup in the Senate Judiciary Committee. Getting 60 votes for cloture on the motion to proceed will be a tall order. Senators would certainly fight for a robust and time-consuming amendment process given the magnitude of the legislation. Supreme Court: Overshadowing the entire June work period is the Supreme Court, which many expect, based on the recent leak of a draft decision, will overturn Roe v. Wade. The decision will likely be released later in June. If Roe is overturned, as many in the media are reporting it could be, Democrats could have additional votes on related legislation, which would crowd out a good deal of the limited Senate floor schedule. --- ### 05.04.2022 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/05-04-2022-washington-update/ - Published: 2022-05-04 - Updated: 2023-06-23 Supreme Court – We knew it was coming, but not now. In what appears to be an unprecedented breach of Supreme Court protocol, Politico reported an apparent leaked draft opinion by Justice Samuel Alito to overturn Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey. The reaction from both sides of the aisle was predictable—but just how the potential decision affects the November elections may not be. “This decision will put women’s rights and abortion rights front and center in the elections,” said Geoff Garin, a pollster who advises Senate Democrats. “The House races that matter are in the suburbs,” said Doug Sosnik, White House political director under President Bill Clinton. “Midterm elections are generally about turnout and this type of ruling could energize the base of both parties.” Maybe. Yes, the decision—which, it should be emphasized, is not final; we’re still dealing with a hypothetical here—to end Roe will further polarize and energize the bases of both parties. (Note – overturning Roe means returning the decision of the legality of abortions back to the states; it would not outlaw abortion.) Moreover, one could reasonably argue that the decision could inspire a much-needed boost to deflated Biden supporters, invigorating Democrats in November, thereby preventing a wave election. But this concatenation seems too simplistic and premature. The immediate reaction, hardened into an assumption, that abortion will be “front and center in the elections”—again, we have our doubts. Of course, we’re not naïve to think that abortion, which has barely registered as a voter concern, would indeed register if the Court does what we expect it to do. But would abortion, at least for some important voting cohorts, trump all other pressing concerns, now dominating the lives of most people, and the political debate nationally? Namely, would inflation—higher prices for just about everything—fall by the wayside? Would debates over school curricula and masking fade into irrelevance? Would President Biden’s approval rating ascend to influential heights? Would the border crisis get pushed aside? What about war in Ukraine? As important: how will Democrats react legislatively? It’s not our place to know. But one can easily imagine the difficulties party leadership could have in forcing votes to codify Roe. What would the bill say, for example, about partial-birth abortion? How would college-educated suburban women respond? How might moderates in the party react to voting for an unqualified, unrestricted right to abortion? Would they support ending the filibuster to attain it? These questions, and the debates surrounding them, could consume the remaining days of the legislative session—which may, or may not, play well with the American public. In a very compressed period, Congress is juggling multiple tasks—Build Back Better, China legislation, a potential energy and climate bill, gas price legislation, NDAA, appropriations, scores of nominations—which Democratic leaders are furiously trying to address, in one form or another, before August. Pushing these aside in favor of abortion could have electoral ramifications. Our point here is to counsel caution in what the Court’s eventual decision, whatever it is, may mean for the midterm elections. And who knows, for instance, what bombshell will emerge in October. Nonetheless, it’s probably incorrect to assume the Court’s decision will have no impact. But it’s probably also wrong to assume the impact will be decisive, either way, in determining who controls Congress in 2023. Kevin Williamson, writing in National Review, summed it up this way: “[T]here is no cause for hyperventilation on either side…The pro-abortion side will be disappointed at first with its symbolic loss, but it is very likely that the state legislatures in California, New York, New Jersey, Illinois, etc., will pass laws that secure abortion rights in those states. It seems reasonably likely that, for the foreseeable future, most Americans will live in states where abortion remains legal. A few big states, notably Texas, are likely to go the other way. Florida will probably enact some abortion restrictions but probably will not go as far as Texas or Oklahoma. The pro-life side will still have a great deal of work to do.” China Legislation – With the Senate agreeing to conference with the House on the United States Innovation and Competition Act, talks can now officially begin. Some informal talks have already occurred in the weeks prior, and the Senate plans on conducting votes on as many as 28 motions to instruct conferees this week. While the business sector has high hopes for an agreement, Republicans we have spoken with remain pessimistic that a final conference agreement can be reached. No Republican believes that a final bill will be ready this work period and prospects are dim, they say, that a product will be finished by August recess. We’ve already discussed in previous updates how many committee chairs and ranking members are involved in these talks—and the challenges that fact presents to getting something done. As a result, some have speculated about a leadership “four corners” negotiation between Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA). We see that as highly unlikely. Leaders McConnell and McCarthy fully trust their ranking members, and there is little political motivation for Republicans to expedite consideration by moving to leadership level talks. As much as the White House and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo would like to secure a legislative victory for Democrats to tout on the campaign trail, we don’t see Republican leaders horse-trading with Democrats just to meet an artificial deadline imposed by Democrats. Another significant factor is logistics. House members are only in session for 32 days over the next three months. While staff can certainly negotiate on some disagreements, given the significant gulf between the proposals, significant member-to-member negotiations will be the only way to get a bill done. This may all end with Congress passing a $52 billion funding bill for semiconductor chip manufacturing this summer and leaving all the rest to be figured out another day, potentially until next Congress when the House and Senate may be under Republican control and an even better deal can be cut directly with President Biden. --- ### 04.27.2022 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/04-27-2022-washington-update/ - Published: 2022-04-27 - Updated: 2023-06-23 Overview - Is politics downstream from culture, or is it the other way around? Right now, in modern-day America, it’s hard to tell. One could make a convincing case either way. After all, politics are part of culture; but culture can easily shape politics. Just ask Herbert Marcuse or William F. Buckley. Why do we ask, you might say, when economic issues appear to be dominating the agenda in DC? Good question. To be sure, inflation shows no sign of abating. No surprise, then, that according to Public Opinion Strategies, who cited an NBC January 18 National Survey, 65 percent of voters think the country is on the wrong track. POS listed 8 issues for voters to rank in importance. At the top of the heap, 48 percent responded with “cost of living.” Coming in last place was “coronavirus,” with just 14 percent. (Notably, coming in third, 23 percent said “immigration and border security.”) As Public Opinion Strategies put it in one of its recent political update slides, “voters continue to view the state of the economy as dismal,” and, when it comes to voter sentiment on the economy, it is “some of the worst data we’ve seen in a decade.” Fifty-six percent of respondents believe the economy will be in recession “in the next year.” Perhaps even more ominous for Democrats, 58 percent of Hispanic voters disapprove of Biden’s handling of the economy. Moreover, 76 percent of Hispanics say the economy is “not so good/poor.” “Keep an eye on Hispanics moving away from Biden/Democrats,” POS wrote. Meanwhile, Biden’s approval rating hasn’t budged in months, and it’s alarmingly low. In an average of 8 major polls, only 41 percent of voters give Biden a thumbs up. Quinnipiac put Biden’s approval at just 35 percent. What do these figures mean? Some historical context is in order. In 1994, President Bill Clinton's approval rating was 46% and Democrats lost 54 seats. President Barack Obama's approval was 45% in 2010 with Democrats ultimately losing 63 seats that election year. These data suggest turbulent waters ahead for Democrats in November. But more than the economy, battles waged over cultural issues remain heated, are only likely to intensify, and remain highly relevant. For one thing, according to staff and GOP officials we talk with, Republicans are eager for the fight—which, by the way, they don’t believe they started. Consider Florida. Or Texas. Or take House Republicans’ recent splenetic denunciation of the Business Roundtable’s “energy policy recommendations.” Here is an excerpt: At a time when skyrocketing inflation is hammering American families, it is shocking and tone-deaf that The Business Roundtable’s latest energy policy proposal calls for a new energy tax that would increase energy costs even higher while also pushing for crony tax credits that will only benefit special interests and Washington insiders… Advocating for an energy tax while soliciting massive government handouts for special interests is destructive, ineffective, and unaffordable… By pushing radical policy positions like a national energy tax, the Business Roundtable will quickly find itself alongside other fading organizations who lost their way. The very notion of Republicans condemning policy from a group of the nation’s most prominent CEOs was once considered unthinkable. But no longer. Of course, it’s not our job to report on the merits of this approach; we only advise that, from a congressional Republican point of view, the approach is real, its appeal is growing stronger, and it portends further fractures with certain segments of the business community that the GOP believes have gone woke. Such critiques of former corporate allies are, again from the GOP perspective, part and parcel of broader fights over masking in schools, vaccine mandates, and school curricula that continue to rage in middle America. Again, it’s not our place to say who’s the victim and who’s the aggressor, only to report that, from what Republican officials all over the country tell us, their voters feel culturally besieged, they feel bullied by teachers’ unions, Hollywood, news media, corporate and academic elites, and they’re darn tired of it. The upshot here is that policy once considered routine and bipartisan may turn out to be neither in the coming months. Here’s one (hypothetical) example: tax extenders legislation. Depending on what’s in it, such a bill could fall victim to the “corporate welfare” charge—that is, tax policies being sought, according to certain Republican officials, by big corporations who have taken sides in the culture wars against their voters. All this could invert the usual playbook for governance, not to mention lobbying. If culture is downstream from politics, then conservative populism and progressive liberalism, as they have to a meaningful degree already, could define, and indeed determine, political battles, large and small, and how each party deals with them, in the months and years ahead. Congressional Agenda - While many in DC are turning their attention to the conference committee negotiations on the China package, the COVID response supplemental, a potential second Ukraine supplemental, and nominations, there will have to be a moment soon when more politically driven legislation will take over the legislative agenda on the Hill. For their part, Republicans continue to pick and choose their fights. Coming back to DC this week we expect Republicans to be almost singularly focused on immigration and Title 42. Senators such as Raphel Warnock (D-GA), Jon Tester (D-MT), Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), Mark Kelly (D-AZ), Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV), and Maggie Hassan (D-NH) are all distancing themselves from President Biden’s potential decision. Republicans are now even further incentivized to make this their focus this work period. We also don’t expect there to be any reduced focus on inflation—from either party. The on-again, off-again talk about a revised Build Back Better plan is music to Republicans’ ears, as it gives them another opportunity to drive home that additional Democratic spending will further exacerbate raging hot inflation. While Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell is continuing his aggressive interest rate increases, there are still elevated risks for a recession if the Fed fails at a so-called “soft landing.” Primary Season – There are also new developments on the fundraising front that have Republicans excited. The Republican party committees have been besting their Democratic counterparts and significant resources are coming to help expand the House and Senate Republican map. Combined, the Senate Leadership Fund and the National Republican Senatorial Committee raised a combined $116.6 million. The Senate Majority PAC and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee have $74.4 million cash on hand. That means Senate Republicans have a $42.2 million advantage—for now. Having the most money does not mean victory is guaranteed but all signs show Republicans will ultimately be close to parity with Democrats’ fundraising levels come November. --- ### 4.05.2022 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/4-05-2022-washington-update/ - Published: 2022-04-05 - Updated: 2023-06-23 "I am going to be working with Congress where I can to accomplish this, but I am also going to act on my own if Congress is deadlocked. I've got a pen to take executive actions where Congress won't, and I've got a telephone to rally folks around the country on this mission.” – President Barack Obama, January 20, 2014 “Whereof what's past is prologue; what to come, in yours and my discharge.” Shakespeare, The Tempest, Act 2, Scene 1 Overview – Here we go again. The pattern is a familiar one: a President’s agenda gets bogged down in Congress, and he and his aides get anxious. And so does his party. Executive anxiety then turns into executive action. This is true for Democrats and Republicans. These actions can take many forms: executive orders, proclamations, rulemakings, guidance documents, bulletins, policy statements, and bureaucratic enforcement. With Build Back Better, or its remnants, languishing in the shadows, with no clear resolution in sight, expect the President’s regulatory machinery to kick into high gear. Give the House Progressive Caucus credit: they know where power resides in Washington. And a considerable amount of it lies with their compatriots in agencies that run the federal government. Recently, House Progressives released a list of [55 recommendations](https://progressives.house.gov/_cache/files/6/8/68a45450-d818-4c0c-a564-cd85ea395d47/C7DC22A98A6BE5D74603B59C3FAE856F.final-cpc-recommendations-for-executive-action-3-17-22-1-.pdf) for executive action. As you would expect, these include policies on just about everything under the sun: energy, climate change, health care, immigration, COVID-19, student loans, and police and judicial reforms. They may have found a receptive audience in President Biden. In 2021, President Biden issued 77 executive orders, compared with 55 by President Donald Trump in his first year and 38 by President Barack Obama. Expect more in this vein this year and next, especially if Republicans regain control of Congress. This inevitably means regulatory activity will accelerate and accumulate. There are reasons for this beyond the mere exercise of power. Democrats know they need a record of accomplishments for campaigning this fall. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) summed it up best: “If the president does pursue and start to govern decisively using executive action and other tools at his disposal, I think we're in the game. But if we decide to just kind of sit back for the rest of the year and not change people's lives — yeah, I do think we're in trouble.” For now, Republicans have scant leverage to stop or slow the onslaught of rules and regulations that will define the next few years. But if, as many expect, they hold committee gavels next year, then oversight will become the principal means by which to savage the bureaucracy’s best laid plans. It will be a target-rich environment: there are currently 62 proposed rules pending at the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs. Those rules are carried out by actual people. As the time-honored adage (attributed to President Ronald Reagan’s personnel director in 1981) goes, “personnel is policy.” That’s why Republicans have targeted the nomination process—and so far, to great effect—and why the Biden Administration is racing to get as many nominees confirmed before the November elections. To date, Senate Republicans’ success in blocking particular nominees stems from their ability to stick together. This has had the concomitant effect of pressuring moderate or vulnerable Democrats to follow suit. Republicans saw this work last week with David Weil’s nomination for the Department of Labor, which was scuttled by Sens. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), Joe Manchin (D-WV), and Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ). Sarah Bloom Raskin’s nomination to the Federal Reserve was opposed by Sen. Manchin; Saul Omarova’s nomination to head the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency was opposed by Sens. Sinema, Kelly, Jon Tester (D-MT), Mark Warner (D-VA), and John Hickenlooper (D-CO). Is this the sign of a growing trend? We don’t know. There’s certainly precedent for members of the President’s own party to withhold support for nominees to gain leverage on issues they care about. For now, it seems some Senate Democrats are becoming less concerned about defying White House picks for certain agencies. As the election draws closer, it will be interesting to see if in-cycle Democratic senators gain more influence over President Biden’s personnel picks. This Week and Next Work Period – With the longest work period of the year wrapping up, the last two major items Senators are racing to complete are the nomination of Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court and additional funding for COVID spending. Sens. Mitt Romney (R-UT), Susan Collins (R-ME), and Lisa Murkowski’s (R-AK) vote in support of discharging Judge Jackson’s nomination from the Senate Judiciary Committee yesterday indicated she is on a glide path to confirmation by the end of the week. Senate negotiators also stuck a deal for $10 billion in additional COVID spending with Senators receiving a full readout of the legislation at both the Democratic and Republican policy lunches today. Senators will have to be whipped on their position to see if 60 votes can be achieved. Several Republicans are not impressed. The House Republican Study Committee was quick to tweet out, “So COVID is still a big enough threat that we need $10 billion in funding, but not big enough to keep Title 42 in place at the border?” Senate Republicans are expected to demand a vote on Title 42 provisions covering migrant expulsions. As with every looming recess, many members are eager to have their CODEL’s and travel back home occur on time, so it remains to be seen if a time agreement for expedited consideration can be made in the coming days. Meanwhile, members of both parties are planning for activities when Congress returns at the end of the month. Convening the conference committee for the China competitiveness bill will be front and center. Note this is the first formal conference committee on a multi-committee bill that we can remember. This means conferees, especially those who’ve never been part of such a process, will have to adjust on the fly. This could add time and complexity to an already difficult situation. One thing to watch for in the early going: several motions to instruct (MTI) conferees. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) has already secured Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s (D-NY) commitment to hold votes on two of his MTI’s dealing with government warrants and equity stakes in microchip companies and targeting funding for Blue Origin’s moon landing program. Republicans are debating how many MTIs they may wish to advance, with the goal of highlighting their various issues with China. Last week, House Republicans pushed an MTI to recede to the Senate position on the prohibition of any U.S. taxpayer dollars going to individuals and companies affiliated with the Chinese military. Finally, Leader Schumer is also hopeful that legislation related to insulin prices can advance on the Senate floor. At the same time, as noted above, he needs to manage the growing heap of nominees on the executive calendar. Nominees for the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Communications Commission are some of the high-profile positions that are primed for Senate floor consideration next work period if not completed this week. Also, the Senate and House Armed Services Committees are expected to begin drafting their respective versions of the fiscal year 2023 National Defense Authorization Act. --- ### 3.30.2022 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/3-30-2022-washington-update/ - Published: 2022-03-30 - Updated: 2023-06-23 Outlook: Presidential approval ratings provide a useful glimpse into the electorate’s often episodic mood about the nation’s chief executive. With respect to President Biden, Americans seem to have grown more consistent in their views. And they’re not pretty. According to our friends at Public Opinion Strategies, over the last several months, “there has been no change in Biden’s job approval”—which is not good for the President or his party. Biden’s approval has landed at about 40 percent for weeks. The more things change, the more they stay the same. There are myriad reasons for this, which we won’t bore you with. But white-hot inflation—as manifested on every gasoline station placard—is surely one of them. And when voters are paying through the nose for everything from gasoline to groceries, they’re gonna get mad. The most recent [new NBC News poll](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/bidens-job-approval-falls-lowest-level-presidency-war-inflation-fears-rcna21679) gives President Biden a 33 percent approval and 63 percent disapproval rating on his handling of the economy. Moreover, a whopping 71 percent said the country is on the wrong track. An even more eye-opening statistic from the NBC News poll showed 7 in 10 Americans expressed low confidence in Biden’s ability to lead, or even deal with, the Russian / Ukraine war. It's a cliché but worth saying nonetheless: 7 months is an eternity in politics. Fortune is fickle, and voters, at times, capricious. But the steadiness of the numbers over the last few months leaves the inevitable impression of steering a massive ship fast approaching an iceberg: which is to say, Democrats appear to be hard-pressed to avoid losing control of at least one, if not both, chambers in November. We strain to find any legislative event that could turn this tide, especially if inflation continues to be a problem, which it likely will. Signing a China competition bill into law? A revised Build Back Better package? Not likely, in our view. On the regulatory front, even if the administration decides, as it has in some cases, to pull back proposals slated for final imposition on businesses, this will amount merely to a stay of execution. And knowing you’re going to die soon doesn’t inspire hope or certainty for the future. What about peace in Ukraine? It’s entirely possible that President Biden could experience some benefit from an end to the war, if only because it would enable him to focus more acutely on domestic concerns, which, according to polling, a majority of the public strongly favors. But an end to the war won’t mean an end to inflation, an economic and political menace bedeviling an administration bereft of solutions to address it. House Republicans: A lot of news came out of the House Republican retreat in Florida last week. Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) noted that 2022 is “not going to be an election [like] 2010 where we win 60 seats.” As McCarthy described it, in 2010, “we won 67 seats, but we lost a few. So, we ended up with 63 in 2010. We’re sitting at 213 with the three openings. If we win 18 seats, that’s equal to 1994. If we win 33 seats, that could be the largest in like 90 some years.” He summed up this way: “I’ll make this one prediction — we’re going to win the majority. And it’s not going to be a five-seat majority.” We’ve all seen House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Whip Jim Clyburn (D-SC) wrestle with a narrow majority. As you might expect, House Republicans not only want to win the House, but they also want maximum headroom to grease their legislative agenda. Republicans want to prioritize energy independence, parental rights, border security-related legislation, addressing the fentanyl crisis, and legislation that allows the US to better position itself against China. From a messaging standpoint, “Can you afford it?” will be the new relaying cry for House Republicans as inflation rages upward. Members feel this is like their “Where are the jobs?” messaging in 2010. McCarthy’s [House Republican task forces](https://www.republicanleader.gov/mccarthy-unveils-republican-task-forces-announces-leaders-and-members/) have been hearing from members about their priorities; expect the task forces to release some of their proposals in the coming months. The goal is to have a full legislative agenda starting on day 1, focusing on voters’ concerns rather than divisive internecine spats. Given the realities of divided government and the prospects that major legislation will be difficult to find common ground on, House Republicans plan on having an aggressive oversight agenda not only looking forward but also on issues that have arisen during the first two years of the Biden Administration given that they had Senate and House Democratic chairs to protect them from public scrutiny. House Republicans are expected to look at issues such as border security, COVID-19 origins, and issues related to Dr. Fauci, oversight of the Department of Justice and Federal Bureau of Investigations, and Russian interface and Russian influence, with a specific focus on environmental groups. China Competition: We expect the conference committee to reconcile the respective House and Senate versions of legislation addressing competition with China to convene in April. As we have mentioned before, Senate Republicans remain adamant that the final bill should track as closely to the Senate-passed version, “The United States Innovation and Competition Act,” or USICA. The House-passed bill has been derided by Republicans as the “Green New Deal masquerading as a China competition bill.” House Democrats will have to scale back their ambitions, which may be possible, given the strong desire from the White House to nail down a win heading into a difficult summer. But reining in House Democrats is only one problem: given the number of committees involved in this bill, there is a decent likelihood that finding consensus will be difficult and time-consuming. Budget & Appropriations: The President’s Fiscal Year 2023 budget was released yesterday, and it will formally set off the delayed appropriations debate for the year. One of the headlines is President Biden’s proposed 20% minimum billionaire tax. While logistically questionable, it’s a populist message not completely lost on the House Republican conference. Some Republicans would not mind seeing Democratic billionaires take a hit or two in this political environment. The House Budget Committee will have its hearing on the President's budget today and the Senate Budget Committee will hold its hearing on Wednesday. Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Patrick Leahy (D-VT) and Ranking Member Richard Shelby (R-AL) have started their negotiations on top-line spending numbers. Given that negotiations just recently occurred on fiscal year 2022 spending, with the upcoming election, and the fact that both Senators Leahy and Shelby, are retiring there is a strong motivation to get appropriations work done quickly this year as well as make up for the lost time. Subcommittee programmatic and funding requests from member offices will likely be due throughout May. Expect to see all the various cabinet members make their annual pilgrimages to the House and Senate Appropriations Committees to make their cases for their funding requests in the coming weeks. Supreme Court: We expect the nomination of Supreme Court nominee Ketanji Brown Jackson to hit the Senate floor next week. Could the vote be bipartisan? The only likely Republican defections are Senators Murkowski (AK), Collins (ME), and Romney (UT). Process-wise, the motion to discharge Ketanji Brown Jackson from the Senate Judiciary Committee will be on April 4 and her nomination will layover that night. Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) will file cloture Tuesday, April 5 and the intervening day will be Wednesday, April 6. The final cloture vote will be Thursday, April 7. --- ### 03.15.2022 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/03-15-2022-washington-update/ - Published: 2022-03-15 - Updated: 2023-06-23 Inflation - Inflation is raging, as consumer prices rose 7.9% in February. One must travel back to 1982 to see anything like what consumers are experiencing now. A recent poll showed 50% of Americans say inflation and the economy are the top issues they want the federal government to address. The same poll also found a significant majority of voters, 63%, disapproved of President Biden’s handling of rising costs. Unfortunately for the President, inflation is likely to get worse before it gets better. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen all but confirmed this when she said, “We're likely to see another year in which 12 months inflation numbers remain very uncomfortably high.” In other words, inflation isn’t transitory; it’s here to stay. With COVID-19 cases and restrictions waning, some expected a “return to normalcy”—indeed, the Administration surely did, and so did many Americans. But few if any (maybe with the exception of Larry Summers) expected the other side of COVID would be sky-high inflation. Election Day is just 8 months away, and to say the least, this is not an environment favorable to vulnerable Democrats. The bottom line is: American families and businesses are changing their spending habits, and, by extension, their long-term outlook of the economy, as they feel the pain daily when they buy gas and groceries. And that pain may only intensify. According to Rystad Energy, a respected global energy consulting firm, depending on how and whether Europe and America continue to squeeze Russian oil via bans and sanctions, oil prices could reach $240 a barrel this summer. “Market volatility is at an all-time high,” Rystad noted, “with prices surging on the expectation that supply will further tighten due to restrictive sanctions on Russian energy from the West.” “Although fortunately not the most likely scenario,” they added, “traders, analysts and decision-makers alike should prepare for elevated prices based on the current landscape. This is the largest energy crisis in decades and the impact on the world’s most important commodity is going to be unprecedented.” This is worst case stuff, to be sure, but Republicans are, and will be, relentless on the issue, noting that Democrats first dismissed early warning signs about inflation and now blame corporate greed, Big Oil collusion, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. These are all points, Republicans say, that Americans aren’t buying. As Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) said last week, “So, they want to blame 14 months of gas price increases on the last two weeks of turmoil. Washington Democrats' war on domestic energy long predates Putin’s war on Ukraine.” Republicans we spoke with also see massive political vulnerabilities tied to news that the Biden Administration beseeched Iran or Venezuela for oil. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) summed up GOP outrage when he asked, “Why would you take the billions of dollars you provide to [Russian President Vladimir Putin] and just give it to another dictator that funds terrorism around the world with Iran and Venezuela?” Republicans have also pounced on reports that Saudi and Emirati leaders declined to take President Biden’s calls. For Republicans, these daily reports of foreign policy missteps, higher gasoline prices, and voter gloom about the future continue to weaken President Biden’s political standing, and hence only strengthen Republicans’ already favorable position in the midterms. Congress – Now that the omnibus is finished, Congress turns to the fiscal year 2023 appropriations cycle. With the recent funding and policy-rider agreement, it may be easier to tackle the next round of appropriations work, which is the only must-pass legislation before the election. The Senate will confirm Shalanda Young to be Director of the Office of Management and Budget this week and the President's budget request to Congress will soon follow. The decision by House Democrats to jettison pandemic response supplemental funding from the omnibus will make for a war of words in the coming days, but Republicans see no incentive to walk back the agreement they made with Democratic leadership and will continue to insist that unused COVID-19 funds from states pay for new spending. Ukraine and Russia-related legislation could also come up in the House and Senate this spring. Republicans will try to attach measures that encourage greater domestic energy production. Moreover, sanctions and other trade-related legislation could be in the cue: leaders of the House and Senate tax writing committees are working to strip Russia of its Permanent Normal Trade Relations status. The Senate will also return to work on nominations, most prominently for Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court, which Senate Democrats would like to finalize before the end of this work period. The Senate could also go to conference with the House on China competitiveness legislation. Other issues on the horizon worth mentioning: - The moratorium on the 2% Medicare sequester is set to expire on March 31. A 1% sequester would return between April 1 and June 30, and the full 2% sequester would resume on July 1. Congress soon must decide if it will further extend the moratorium to the end of the COVID emergency, as many health groups want; - The Senate Finance Committee and House Ways and Means Committee will have to address trade adjustment assistance, which will be fully phased out on June 30; and - Several tax extenders will need to be worked at some point this year, with a December 31st deadline looming. - Both the House and Senate are working towards advancing the biennial Water Resources Development Act (WRDA) 2022 with authorizing committees pledging to keep policies in WRDA exclusively on activities within the scope of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. --- ### 03.08.2022 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/03-08-2022-washington-update/ - Published: 2022-03-08 - Updated: 2022-03-08 Overview: As is becoming clear, Russia’s war against Ukraine is no ephemeral incursion, but a protracted war, one that will upend, among much else, the global economic order. With May futures contracts growing for $200 oil, one cringes at what could ensue. Global recession? For how long? Even higher inflation? A broader war in Europe? China invading Taiwan? One question, which leads inexorably to a host of others, is: When will all this end? When a Russian flag flies over Kyiv? If so, at what point do the U.S. and its allies reverse the sanctions designed to inflict maximum pain on Putin (and Russia at large), but which are having inevitable collateral impacts throughout the global economy? If Putin wins this war, then what? Do the sanctions remain in place? And for how long? And how long can the world sustain $150 or $200 oil? And what of Russia’s other essential exports? As thestreet.com noted: "Russia also is an important provider of metals, such as aluminum, titanium palladium, copper and nickel. Aluminum is used in drink cans and construction, among other uses. Stainless steel contains nickel, as do lithium-ion batteries. Nickel prices touched a 14-year high last week." We could be headed for dark times. What will all this mean for U.S. politics? Among other things, the war has reinforced the polarized positions of both parties on energy policy. But what happens when gasoline prices go to $5.00 or $6.00 a gallon? The last time policy changed, in response to high energy prices, with both parties holding hands, was in 2008, when oil climbed to $140, and gasoline was 4 bucks. “Congress must face a hard reality,” President George W. Bush said at the time. “Unless members are willing to accept gas prices at today's painful prices or even higher, our nation must produce more oil, and we must start now.” Eventually, then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) agreed. Congress overturned the offshore drilling ban, attached annually to an appropriations bill. But, as they say, that was then, this is now. The Democratic party is not what it was then; the same goes for Republicans. We were divided then, and probably more divided now. So is $5.00 a gallon the new breaking point? Will growing driver outrage drive the parties to a compromise that includes greater access to oil and gas, in exchange for, say, generous tax credits for wind, solar, and hydrogen? Opposing sides aren’t budging. The Biden Administration, via Press Secretary Jen Psaki, says the oil and gas industry has what it needs, but isn’t drilling (not true). Republicans are crying foul, and the oil and gas industry is, too. Like a green metronome, environmentalists demand “no more oil!” Congress is on the verge of banning Russian oil imports, but there’s nothing for greater domestic production. But a storm is rising, and it has a lot to do with energy. Prolonged high energy prices will surely induce a recession. For the party in power, already reeling from historically low Presidential approval ratings (40 percent), heavy retirements, and favorable Republican polling, this is no welcome development. So does this mean “Build Back Better” has been recalled to life? As noted above, inflation continues to worsen, and will be compounded by sanctions and Russia’s growing exit from global commerce. Though he has signaled, once again, his usual willingness to reconsider negotiations, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WVA) has been clear all along that inflation is his number one concern. Therefore, it would seem, putting billions of dollars of federal spending back in the queue seems unlikely. And for Manchin, who last week uncharacteristically issued a stinging rebuke of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s moves to slow approvals of natural gas pipelines, any compromise bill that doesn’t include provisions to increase domestic oil and gas production and ease pipeline approvals likely wouldn’t get his support. But would any bill that does include those things get the support of, say, Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI)? Both parties are as entrenched as ever when it comes to energy policy (and much else). It seems that only a war in Europe could upend, at least for a time, where the parties fall on fundamental policy issues. But we’re not holding our breath that a change is coming any time soon. Appropriations: Congress is finalizing details of an omnibus spending bill, which will include aid (more than the White House wanted) for Ukraine and additional funding (less than the White House wanted) for COVID-19. Republicans opposed generous funding for the latter until they received a detailed accounting for existing COVID funds. They were somewhat successful in their demands that any new COVID-related spending be focused only on critical needs. Democratic leadership says the omnibus bill should be on the floor tomorrow, and Senate leaders feel confident that the bill will pass before funding expires on Saturday. Supreme Court: The Senate Judiciary Committee has announced that hearings for the nomination of Ketanji Brown Jackson for the Supreme Court will begin on March 21. Despite calls from Senate Republicans, notably Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA), to slow the process down, we expect the hearings to be complete on March 25, with the full Senate likely to consider her nomination in the first two weeks of April. Trade: Congressional action on Russia continues on the trade front as well. On Monday, Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden (D-OR), Ranking Member Mike Crapo (R-ID), House Ways and Means Chairman Richie Neal (D-MA) and Ranking Member Kevin Brady (R-TX) are putting forward legislation that would suspend normalized trade relations with Moscow, halt Belarus’s bid to join the World Trade Organization and increase tariffs on imported Russian and Belarusian goods. The White House has not said whether it would sign the bill if it reached President Biden’s desk. --- ### 02.15.2022 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/02-15-2022-washington-update/ - Published: 2022-02-15 - Updated: 2022-02-15 Culture wars, continued—We will lay this out in a more detailed memo, but safe to say that, notwithstanding omnipresent focus on inflation, energy prices, and Russia-Ukraine, the media may be missing a smoldering political undercurrent with huge ramifications in November. The ongoing debate over masking in schools has generated more light than heat, meaning politicians on the left and right should take heed. Blue-state governors, and just today, the mayor of DC, are feeling the pressure, as they end general mask mandates and vaccination requirements to enter bars, restaurants, and arenas. But for many parents across the political spectrum, those actions only emphasize a basic point: as Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) tweeted, celebrities at the Super Bowl were blithely unmasked while their kids in schools are still wearing masks. This is not our place to choose sides on the issue. We raise it only because of its potential political significance in the upcoming midterm elections—at all levels. The nation saw it in microcosm last November, when now-Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) pulled off a stunning upset over former Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) in blue Virginia, in good part on this issue. Despite that victory, the state’s masking wars continue apace, with many school districts choosing to defy Youngkin’s executive order empowering parents to make the final call on masks. Virginia incumbents—and indeed any incumbent, anywhere—ignore this fight at their peril. The last thing any officeholder at any level needs when the political environment is scorched by inflation, higher gasoline prices (Bank of America predicts oil prices could hit $117 a barrel in July), and geopolitical unrest is contesting a fiercely brewing fight in a broader culture war. But that’s what’s happening right before our eyes. Though one might pause in drawing comparisons with what’s happening up north, the trucker protests in Ottawa are another manifestation of genuine exhaustion over COVID-inspired restrictions. Whatever one’s take on the appropriateness of the truckers’ actions, they do signal general discontent among the masses over such policies, one that politicians here in the U.S.—that is, current and prospective office holders, from dog catcher to senator—should take seriously. Even if resolved in the next few months, this aspect of the broader culture war, which has been raging beneath and above the surface for years, may reverberate past November. Politicians will need answers on where they stood and why. Sure, having a plan to reduce gasoline prices will be top of mind for voters, but masking for kids, and COVID restrictions more generally, could ultimately be the make-or-break issue, no matter what happens between now and November. Appropriations – While leaders of the House and Senate Appropriations Committees announced a “deal to get to a deal” on the budget, the real work of negotiating commences this week. Subcommittees have their allocations in hand, but there remain significant disagreements over spending levels and policy riders. While it’s no surprise that appropriators continue to be optimistic that a final omnibus is within reach, rank-and-file Republicans, along with House Republican leadership, are far more skeptical that a deal can happen—and, if it does, whether they can, or will, support it. As is always the case, this entire process can still go sideways. Expect Chuck Schumer (D-NY), Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) to become more involved as the process inches along. But note this: To date, neither Pelosi nor the White House has made any proactive outreach to House Republicans—on this or any other matter. If there is any glitch process, by which we mean any angst from House progressives, or moderate House Democrats for that matter, on voting for a final deal, don’t expect more than just a few House Republicans to bail them out. That could create difficult math on the floor for Speaker Pelosi. Despite threats to block passage, the short-term continuing resolution is expected to clear the Senate this week. Given concerns from some Republican senators on several issues, Leader Schumer may have to seek a tailored-vote agreement on a few amendments or begin running the procedural clock to process the funding bill. Bipartisan Agreements – While partisan fights dominate the headlines, there is plenty of bipartisan legislative activity happening on Capitol Hill. In addition to the current efforts on election certification reform, agreements have been reached on reauthorizing the Violence Against Women Act, ending forced arbitration in sexual assault cases, and postal service reform. Over the last serval weeks, several Senate committees have also been producing bipartisan legislation that may get floor time or be incorporated into larger packages. The Senate Judiciary Committee has successfully reported out the “American Innovation and Choice Online Act” and the “Open App Markets Act and EARN IT Act,” along with several criminal justice reform bills it passed at the end of 2021. Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee Chairman Gary Peters (D-MI) and Ranking Member Rob Portman (R-OH) have created a cybersecurity omnibus bill that includes the “Cyber Incident Reporting Act,” the “Federal Information Security Modernization Act,” and the “Federal Secure Cloud Improvement and Jobs Act.” Also of note: leaders of the Senate HELP Committee reached an agreement on a bipartisan bill that would strengthen federal and state preparedness for future pandemics, while The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee has also begun the biannual process of reauthorizing the Water Resources Development Act. The Senate Finance Committee has commenced hearings on mental health care, which could lead to a potential bipartisan bill in the future. Chairman Ron Wyden (D-OR) and Ranking Member Mike Crapo (R-ID) are also expected to work on a new bill this year that would further promote retirement savings. With the shadow of the mid-term elections growing closer, many members know they have to cut deals now to allow enough time for their bills to get to the Senate floor, either on their own or more likely added to larger moving packages, before the legislative process shuts down. Otherwise, all hopes will have to ride on lame-duck, end-of-year agreements which are not always guaranteed to occur. --- ### 02.09.2022 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/02-02-2022-washington-update/ - Published: 2022-02-09 - Updated: 2022-02-09 China – With the passage of the America Competes Act in the House last week, attention now turns to negotiations with the Senate. We could prattle on endlessly about the various provisions in the House and Senate bills, but we won’t. The bottom line is that the final product will likely strongly resemble the Senate-passed “United States Innovation and Competition Act” (USICA). The reason has to do with one number: 60. Any provisions that jeopardize getting sufficient Republican votes to cross that threshold will be cut. Our sense is that, with Build Back Better dead, the White House and its compatriots in Congress are searching for a big win. This is their opportunity. Thus, it's entirely possible that this bill becomes a veritable smorgasbord of provisions, many of which are likely to be embarrassingly unrelated to confronting America’s chief geopolitical adversary—all solely focused on simply passing something. Though many members could get what they want, the bill could become so freighted with pork that the left and the right attack the bill to death. To our minds, this means Senate Republicans have some leverage. Pay close attention to ranking members Roger Wicker (R-MS), Mike Crapo (R-ID), Jim Risch (R-ID), and Pat Toomey (R-PA) who will help lead negotiations, and each of whom included language in USICA. Senators John Cornyn (R-TX) and Todd Young (R-IN) also will play key roles. These members could simply keep provisions they prefer in the House-passed bill, and throw out the rest, while adding their USICA language. If Democrats object, then Democrats have no bill. Of course, if Republicans are accused of deep-sixing the bill, the refrain will be, “Republicans are weak on China!” But will Republicans ultimately care? There are enough provisions in both bills that could be isolated and attacked with a ruthless cost-benefit test, the cost being (in their likely words) taxpayer-financed subsidies for big corporations and coddling China over trade and climate change, while there are no real benefits to offer. China continues to be a volatile issue that both sides must play carefully. So, with BBB pushed backstage, expect the temperature to rise along with the political stakes over this bill. Federal Reserve – All five pending Federal Reserve nominees, including Chair Jay Powell and Sarah Bloom Raskin, will have their nomination markups on February 15. Chair Powell has broad bipartisan support and could be considered by the full Senate soon after his markup, while the fate of Sarah Bloom Raskin’s nomination appears dicier. Senate Republicans in the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee unanimously oppose her nomination. Republicans assert that Raskin thinks the Fed should pick winners and losers in the energy sector—a view Republicans find repugnant. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) criticized Raskin on the Senate floor saying, “In 2020, she said unelected bureaucrats should have excluded companies that employ Americans and produce American energy from widely-available rescue loans because oil and gas are not green enough for liberals’ liking. This is the same, old Democrat war on fossil fuels and Middle America — being smuggled into a dangerous new forum.” With a tie vote expected, Senate Democrats will be forced to vote on the floor to discharge her nomination from the committee. In addition, should the entire Republican conference remain opposed, Vice President Kamala Harris will be required to confirm Raskin. Sen. Ben Ray Luján (D-NM) is not expected back in the Senate for four to six weeks, and it could be a while until Raskin is sworn in at the Fed. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WA) hinted he would support Raskin when he said of the Fed nominees, “They all look extremely qualified.” Appropriations – An agreement on topline spending and policy riders remains elusive for the so-called Big 4 while the continuing resolution, extending to March 11, will likely pass by the end of the week. Republicans want dollar-for-dollar spending for defense and non-defense accounts as well as maintaining the Hyde Amendment and other Trump-era policy riders. Appropriators, as one might expect, are optimistic about an omnibus deal, but some non-appropriator Republicans are skeptical. At this point, we’re leaning toward the former, who seem capable of cobbling deals together even amidst deep-seated partisan rancor. After all, they deal in money (or IOUs from the Treasury), not to mention the possibility of securing state- or district-friendly provisions (let’s not call them earmarks). Additional COVID-related spending faces an uphill battle as far as Republicans are concerned. Leader McConnell stated on the floor, “Now we hear Democrats may request yet another huge chunk of emergency spending. But experts say as much as $800 billion or $900 billion of the money that we’ve already set aside has not even been spent yet. What about a full accounting of the $6 trillion that’s already been approved?” Ukraine – The debate over how the US should respond to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine is revealing serious divisions among Republicans on foreign policy. President George W. Bush's era of interventionism has been on the wane within the party for years. Older and more established Republicans, especially in the Senate, are calling for the US to send weapons and communications equipment, provide logistical and intelligence support, and impose crippling sanctions. Younger Republicans have been taking more of an isolationist stance (now being promoted by Tucker Carlson and former President Trump). For many Republicans, one of former President Trump’s greatest accomplishments was that he didn’t start any new American-led wars or interventions. Politically, as many Republicans see it, the Biden Administration is more focused on Ukraine’s border than our own. The decisions made by President Biden in the coming days will face heavy scrutiny and criticism by Republicans who have no faith in the President’s national security team following the disastrous withdrawal in Afghanistan. Meanwhile, members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee continue to put the final details together on a sanctions bill that could be on the Senate floor in the coming days. Sanctions related to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline remain a top priority for a select group of Republicans. --- ### 02.01.2022 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/02-01-2022-washington-update/ - Published: 2022-02-01 - Updated: 2022-02-01 Overview – “Build Back Smaller”? “Build Back Smarter”? New names for President Biden’s revised signature legislation haven’t taken hold. And neither has a strategy for passing it. This is not to say, as we’ve said repeatedly, that passing it can’t or won’t happen. Democrats want to pass something, at some point, before it’s too late. “We need to get it done,” said House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD). Fair enough. But temporal, substantive (and even appellative) considerations matter. When is “too late”? When do they “need to get it done”? What, and not just from a gnomish CBO perspective, constitutes “smaller”? More critically from a political perspective, what would be “smarter”? Is “Build Back Better” still the right label? We don’t know. It’s up to the President and his party to figure that out. But in politics, as in life, timing is everything. Some may scoff at the prospect that come April (“the cruelest month”), no deal is done. But House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) recently said she didn’t want to “subscribe to any particular date” for passing the bill. If that’s so, could it take several months until a final bill passes both chambers, maybe even this summer? Is that even possible? We understand some may see this scenario as absurd. But Pelosi seems wise to avoid setting another drop-dead date for the bill’s passage. First it was Halloween; then Thanksgiving; then Christmas; followed by January (no more child tax credit checks); and now, March 1st, Biden’s State of the Union address. Suspecting negotiations might take months, therefore, is not unreasonable. And by the way, Congress has other things to do. Government funding expires February 18th. Biden’s Supreme Court nominee will command considerable White House and member (and staff) attention—and precious Senate floor time (more on this below). Thus, the nomination and attempts to forge an omnibus budget deal could add several weeks, at the very least, to the reconciliation schedule. And then things might get dicey. Oil prices could soon hit $100 a barrel and go even higher by summer (Bank of America: $117 by July). Seven percent inflation could make even Paul Volcker blush (not likely), but for the purposes of passing reconciliation, skyrocketing pump prices in the near term could be fatal. After all, inflation was a principal stated reason for Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-WVA) opposition to Build Back Better. Blaring placards on street corners displaying “$4.00 a gallon” have always obliterated even the best-conceived political plans. So, $100-plus oil could waylay passage until June. At that point, though, another bomb may drop. The Supreme Court will likely issue its decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization—a decision that could seriously erode, or overturn altogether, Roe v. Wade. Once that happens, the Senate could be paralyzed, more so than it has been already, by brutal partisan recriminations. We would expect the Left to (again) press Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) to change the rules to pass abortion legislation, and the Left to level splenetic attacks against Manchin for opposing them. We could then see the same legislative results: in other words, nothing. The same perplexing dynamics from last year continue to beguile negotiations this year. Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) fired off a concessionary tweet (or was it?) over the weekend that “Manchin should have the pen” to rewrite the bill. That prompted two thoughts. First, neither Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) nor any other member of the Progressive Caucus retweeted in agreement. Is silence here tacit agreement? Second: Manchin said yesterday that a new revised bill should include things Khanna and company frankly really despise. “We need reliability in energy. And that means building pipelines that are having a very difficult time,” Machin told reporters. Manchin added that the U.S. must “take care of what we have, and that means you’re going to use all the fossil industry in the cleanest-absolute possible versions that you can and that will help clean up the climate in the world.” Some may note that Manchin, earlier this year, said that Build Back Better’s “climate thing [his words] is one that we probably can come to agreement much easier than anything else.” But he didn’t say whether he supports, and it’s not clear that he ever did, the climate title’s methane tax, or the electric vehicle tax credit with generous add-ons for union-made vehicles. Depending on where he lands, adding, via Manchin’s pen, provisions to promote pipelines and the fossil fuel industry could infuriate the likes of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), to name just one member. Finally, the closer the reconciliation process gets to September 30th, the more the pressure increases to demonstrate that the legislation has meaningful budgetary impacts in this fiscal year. Some parts of the bill in the waning months may not. So, it’s entirely possible that some provisions (e.g., tax changes) may get scrapped or be written to apply retroactively to pass parliamentary muster. Republicans could argue on solid ground that a majority, electing to push forward a bill that beats the September 30th deadline, without real impacts in fiscal year 2022, isn’t contemplated by the rules, and the practice, of reconciliation. Maybe all this comes together swimmingly, and quickly. The party in power feels a political imperative to get something done. President Biden may be able to boast of a major legislative accomplishment in four weeks. It’s possible. But probable? Our objective is merely to lay out the challenges that could lie ahead. Things could get bumpy. All the while, time beckons. China – This week, House Democrats will consider their 2,912-page China package, the “America COMPETES Act.” The package was developed without any input from House Republicans, who uniformly oppose the bill, owing to its lack of meaningful enforcement measures, its bewildering array of unnecessary government subsidies, and inordinate focus on climate change. Republicans are particularly incensed that House Democrats have revived several provisions that were rejected during NDAA negotiations last year. The purpose behind House passage is to get to conference with the Senate’s bill, the “United States Innovation and Competition Act,” or USICA, but the number of proposals and committees involved will inevitably complicate talks. More than ten committees contributed to the House package, while the Senate’s provisions came from the Finance, Foreign Affairs, and Commerce committees. One nettlesome task will be reaching compromise between the Senate Finance and House Ways and Means Committees on the eventual legislation’s trade title—as each has drafted language diametrically opposed by the other. This balancing act could be spoiled by Senate Republicans, who are insisting on the deal cemented by Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden (D-OR) and Ranking Member Mike Crapo (R-ID)—a deal that was critical in obtaining Republican votes. Overall, Republican support could evaporate if the final bill strays too far from the bipartisan Senate package. Republicans, it would seem, have some leverage: they know the White House wants (and some would say, needs) a major legislative win before President Biden’s State of the Union address on March 1st. So they will demand, with some wind at their backs, that whatever legislation emerges is free of any poison pills House Democrats may want. Supreme Court – Senate Democrats have been united on President Biden's Senate-confirmed judicial nominations, and that is not expected to change. The only outstanding questions are the timing of the nomination vote and whether all 50 Democrats stay healthy and in DC to vote quickly. A nomination may come in the next two weeks, given the narrow field of candidates. It’s true that Justice Amy Coney Barrett’s nomination took only 30 days; Senate Democratic leaders could accomplish a similar timeline. However, by the time Justice Barrett’s nomination was announced, then-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and the Trump Administration had become a well-oiled machine in advancing SCOTUS nominations, having previously vetted and confirmed Justices Gorsuch and Kavanaugh (the latter process being especially brutal). If President Biden selects a nominee that has been recently confirmed by the Senate with bipartisan support, then that nominee could be confirmed by mid-March. Appropriations – The February 18th government funding deadline is coming fast, with no deal in sight. There will need to be some movement in negotiations this week, otherwise, a short-term continuing resolution, possibly until early March, will be needed. A deal on top-line spending can eventually be reached, but a deal on policy riders—most politically problematic for both sides being the Hyde Amendment—remain the biggest barrier to an agreement. Senate Floor – This week the Senate will return to confirming judicial and Biden administration nominees. --- ### Mike Danylak, Former Senior Staffer To Sen. Barrasso, Joins CGCN Group - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/mike-danylak-former-senior-staffer-to-sen-barrasso-joins-cgcn-group/ - Published: 2022-02-01 - Updated: 2022-02-01 Today, Jan 31, 2022, the CGCN Group, a fully integrated advocacy, policy analysis, and strategic communications firm, announced that Mike Danylak, Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee communications director to U.S. Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY) has joined the firm as a senior vice president and promoted Amanda Horne to a communications associate. A veteran of Capitol Hill, Danylak has helped lead communications efforts in the Senate on major energy, infrastructure, and environmental legislation. “We are thrilled to welcome Mike to our growing strategic communications team,” said Matt Rhoades, co-CEO of CGCN Group. “Mike’s experience as a leading communications professional on Capitol Hill will greatly benefit our current and prospective clients. Furthermore, we’re happy to promote Amanda, who has proven herself as a diligent and highly skilled member of our team.” “I am very excited to be joining the talented team at CGCN,” said Danylak. “Their reputation for getting results for their clients is unrivaled in the industry. I look forward to using my experience to benefit clients and to support the continued growth of CGCN.” Prior to his time with the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, Mike served for four years as communications director for the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee and two years as press secretary for the Senate Committee on Indian Affairs. Before his time on Capitol Hill, Mike served as press secretary of the American Action Forum and as director of the Republican National Committee's war room. In addition to Danylak, CGCN Group has also promoted Amanda Horne to a communications associate. Horne joined the firm in 2019 and previously served as a Staff Assistant to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY). --- ### 01.11.2022 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/01-11-2022-washington-update/ - Published: 2022-01-11 - Updated: 2022-01-11 Elections Reform and Senate Rules – Will Rogers said, “you’ve got to go out on a limb sometimes because that’s where the fruit is.” This week (and not for the first time) Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is out on a limb, but it’s not clear where the fruit is. Here’s what we mean. Over the next few days, Schumer will exercise his prerogative as Majority Leader and call up the “John Lewis Voting Rights Act” and the “Freedom to Vote Act.” You don’t need to be a betting man to know the outcome: both bills will fail because all 50 Republicans (with maybe one or two exceptions) will oppose them, meaning Schumer won’t have 60 votes to proceed. This is where things get interesting. As all DC knows, Schumer has vowed to change Senate rules—i.e., remove the filibuster in some manner—by Martin Luther King Day, if necessary (it will be), to pass these bills. How so? That’s the question. Eliminate the 60-vote threshold on the motion to proceed (also known as “cloture-on-the-front end”)? Maybe. Re-institute the so-called “talking filibuster”? Possibly. Assuming there’s sufficient support for these ideas—a dubious assumption—what do these reform proposals have in common? Neither would deep-six the filibuster preventing legislation from coming to a final vote. What about a carveout? In other words, remove the filibuster for, say, legislation that covers “constitutional rights,” meaning, presumably, these two bills. An interesting idea, to be sure. But Schumer continues to be flummoxed by a basic problem: at least at this point, he doesn’t have the votes, for that proposal or any other of its kind (to effectuate the necessary changes he’d move to overrule the chair, the so-called “nuclear option,” which requires 51 votes). In his typical folksy way, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WVA) said, “Once you change rules or have a carve-out—I've always said this: Anytime there's a carve-out, you eat the whole turkey because it comes back. So, you want things that'll be sustainable.” To date, the national media have focused relentlessly on Manchin’s, and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s (D-AZ), opposition to filibuster reform. But they are not alone. Just yesterday, Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), up for reelection in November, expressed reservations. “I’ve never been part of an organization where it’s really, really hard to do things,” Kelly said. “So if there’s a real proposal, I’ll take a look at it and evaluate it based on what’s in the best interests of the country.” Similarly, Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE), who signed a bipartisan letter in 2017 supporting the legislative filibuster, is “seriously weighing” how to proceed. Sen. John Tester (D-MT) is reportedly in the same boat. Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV), gearing up for a tough reelection fight this year, said she supports the talking filibuster—which, as noted, won’t get the election and voting rights bills across the finish line. All the while, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), banking on his minority position and a stalwart defender of the legislative filibuster, is categorically opposing any changes—and every Republican supports him. Republicans are leveling charges of hypocrisy at the other side. Expect them to highlight (at a minimum) that in 2020, at the start of the pandemic, Senate Democrats filibustered the CARES Act, and deployed it against Sen. Tim Scott’s (R-SC) police reform bill. Is there a deal to be had? No chance. Republicans are certainly open to amending the antiquated and inscrutable Electoral Count Act (ECA), but not in exchange for filibuster reforms. Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) is leading a bipartisan group to examine tweaks to the ECA, a group that includes Sinema and Manchin, along with Senators Thom Tillis (R-NC), Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), Mitt Romney (R-UT), and Roger Wicker (R-MS). Where this goes is anyone’s guess. But recall that Sen. Collins led the aforementioned bipartisan letter in 2017 opposing elimination of the filibuster. In other words, don’t expect anything earth-shattering. Certainly not anything that would leave the Progressive base satisfied. As for McConnell, few things are more important than preserving the status quo procedurally in the Senate. If ECA reform can achieve that objective, which means concomitantly keeping Manchin et. al convinced that the body can still function through negotiation, then fine, but not at the expense, as McConnell sees it, of protecting fundamental minority rights in the chamber. So, what’s the likely outcome of this? It seems that Schumer could be left only with a talking point—that Republicans blocked essential reforms, and because of their intransigence (one can think of other epithets likely to be used), minorities will be prevented from voting in 2022 and beyond. Republicans appear eager to weather the criticism: they will pocket a win and continue to focus on inflation—the next round of BLS numbers released tomorrow will show the problem worsening—the lack of COVID testing, virtual schooling, crime, and the economy. And revel in their election prospects in November. Appropriations – An omnibus spending deal appears no more likely than before the break, given the yawning gap between Democrats and Republicans on spending levels and policy riders. With the omicron surge, some lawmakers, such as Sens. Ben Cardin (D-MD) and Roger Wicker, want to provide emergency funding to restaurants still hurting from the pandemic. This seems like a tall order. The Biden administration may also request a COVID supplemental, an idea being lambasted by Republicans asking what happened to the $1.9 trillion passed last March in the American Rescue Plan. But not so fast: some Republicans are at least broaching the notion that a supplemental deal on COVID could push Manchin to permanently kill the Build Back Better Act. Of course, others think Manchin has already done that, but time will tell. Senate and House Floor This Week – In addition to election reform legislation this week, the Senate will consider nominations and potentially consider S. 3436, which addresses sanctions related to the Russian Nord Stream 2 pipeline. This stems from a deal forged between Schumer and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX); procedurally there will be only two hours of debate and no amendments will be in order. The Biden Administration is lobbying hard against the bill, making it difficult for Democrats who may be inclined to vote for it. Instead, though it’s being dubbed a violation of the Schumer-Cruz deal, a vote on a Democratic alternative could provide the cover that many Democrats want. The House will begin its second session of Congress this week by considering H.R. 1836, the Guard and Reserve GI Bill Parity Act, and the Senate Amendment to H.R. 5746, the NASA Enhanced Use Leasing Extension Act. --- ### Washington Update 12.14.21 - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/washington-update-12-14-21/ - Published: 2021-12-14 - Updated: 2021-12-14 “On the first day of Christmas, Joe Biden gave to me…” Just kidding. Yes, there are 12 days until Christmas, but we’ll spare you the spoofed holiday song. To be sure, President Biden needs more than French hens and partridges in pear trees to get Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-WV) vote for the Build Back Better Act (BBBA). Here’s why. According to a Dec. 8-9 poll of likely voters in West Virginia: - 73% are “very concerned” about “inflation and the rising cost of goods like groceries and gas” - 73% agree that “higher prices, including at the gas pump or the grocery store, negatively impacted your family’s finances” - 64% say that “the multi-trillion-dollar spending package being considered by Congress, also known as the Build Back Better Act will “make inflation worse” - 66% “strongly agree” that “Congress should slow down and get the Build Back Better Act right. Now is not the time to pass major spending bills that could make inflation worse” - Nearly 60% oppose or strongly oppose the Build Back Better Act On December 10, the Department of Labor informed the world that U.S. inflation in November stood at 6.8%, the highest level in nearly 40 years. In advance of his call today with President Biden, Manchin stubbornly reemphasized his overarching concern: “Inflation is real, it's not transitory. It's alarming. It's going up, not down…I know people have been in a hurry for a long time to do something, but basically I think we're seeing things unfold that allows us to prepare better.” To make matters worse for Manchin, who has objected to what he dubbed the BBBA’s “budget gimmicks,” the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released a full-blown estimate of the bill, showing that extending its various tax and spending programs over 10 years would cost $4.9 trillion, and add $3 trillion to the debt. As Manchin described provisions in the current bill, “One goes for three years, one goes for one year … one might go for the full 10 years, do they not intend for those programs to last the full 10 years? Well if you don’t intend for that to happen, what’s the real cost? Because we’re either going to debt-finance it if we’re not going to pay for it or come back and change the tax code again.” Manchin said he found all this “sobering.” Sobering indeed. We note these stats not to gloat, but because all this agitation reminds us of the GOP’s months-long, and miserably failed, odyssey in 2017 to repeal Obamacare. After that effort imploded, Republicans moved to safer ground, passing the “Tax Cuts and Jobs Act” to preserve party unity and deliver a tangible win for the base. Of course, whether the bill achieved the latter—it was largely aimed at lowering rates and easing international tax burdens for corporations—is debatable. In any case, it passed, and Republicans declared victory. But, due to a host of reasons, they lost the House in 2018. We suspect the same thing could happen here: Democrats will eventually pass something, but in the ongoing saga to appease Manchin, the BBBA will be (as it already is) a pale shadow of its former self. In the end, Democrats will have a concrete win, but no one in the party will really be happy, with progressives being the most vocally dissatisfied. And dissatisfied they will be if current projections about the 2022 mid-term elections come to pass. Not to get ahead ourselves, but look at the most recent generic mid-term ballot (asking respondents whether they would vote for a Republican or Democrat). According to a CNBC “All America economic survey,” Republicans now hold a 10-point advantage over Democrats, 44 to 34, up from a 2-point lead in the same poll in October. As The Hill wrote, the latest numbers mark “the first time the GOP has ever enjoyed a double-digit lead on the question in a CNBC or NBC poll. It is in line with other polls showing Democrats losing on the generic ballot, though few have shown so large a Republican lead.” In the poll, Biden's approval rating came in at 41 percent, while 46 percent of Americans approve of how he’s handling coronavirus, compared with 48 percent who disapprove, the first time he's been “underwater on the question in the CNBC poll.” Jay Campbell, the Democratic pollster for the CNBC survey, said, “If the election were tomorrow, it would be an absolute unmitigated disaster for the Democrats.” The election, of course, is not tomorrow. As we’ve said before, 11 months is an eternity in politics. Given the year we had in 2020, anything seems possible. But the deck is getting stacked, and largely in Republicans’ favor (redistricting, retirements, crime, inflation). This surely is weighing on Manchin, as well as others in his party facing voters next year. In the end, Manchin’s Hamletian posturing will likely buckle under the enormous weight of a party apparatus hell-bent on passing this bill. And if past is prologue—just ask the GOP about their healthcare debacle—then 2022 will likely be a rough ride. And it could very well start in January with continued haggling over BBBA. Timing – On that note, the time to complete the BBBA by the end of the year is running out. The Senate Finance Committee finally released their base legislative text, minus SALT, to begin conversations with the Parliamentarian this week. Other committees are preparing for Byrd baths later around the same time, but in some cases, legislative text is still a work-in-progress. And we still don’t have a final Senate substitute, or, for that matter, a final CBO score. Meanwhile, Senate Republicans are preparing amendments, not to improve or tweak the bill, but to subject vulnerable Democrats to politically painful votes. Theoretically, it could take Senate Democrats four days to debate and pass BBBA on the Senator floor, but the process parts of reconciliation must be completed first and, most important, Democrats must secure 51 votes for final passage. At this juncture, they have neither. Debt Limit – While the curtain will fall on the latest debt limit showdown this week, the agreement between Leaders Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Mitch McConnell (R-KY) to grant expedited procedures for the debt limit has angered the Republican base. Conservative Republican senators and the House Republican Conference are, it’s safe to say, furious. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) denounced the debt limit deal as a “disturbing precedent” and it “opens the door for Democrats to try to do that in the future” on other issues. Meanwhile, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) exploited the fuss to declare her delight. “This is an exception to the filibuster,” she said. “And the Republicans have just signed on. It's proof that it's possible to create exceptions to the filibuster and move forward when it's important. Do it once, let's do it twice.” Expect Senate Democrats to make similar calls for filibuster exemptions for their priority legislation next year. As usual, McConnell is taking it all in stride, thinking about the long-game, and watching Manchin and Sinema closely, hoping the debt-limit deal will help both of them resist calls to abandon the filibuster entirely. Senate and House Floor – In addition to considering legislation to increase the debt limit, the Senate will take up and pass the pre-conferenced FY2022 National Defense Authorization Act this week after the bill was overwhelmingly passed by the House with significant Republican support. The Senate is also expected to consider nominations including Lucy Haeran Koh to be a judge for the U.S. Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, Jennifer Sung to be a judge for the Ninth Circuit, and Samantha Elliott to be United States District Judge for the District of New Hampshire. Be on the lookout for additional nominations to be confirmed by unanimous consent this week. The House will consider the soon-to-be-passed Senate bill to increase the debt limit, with a target date of passage on Wednesday, December 15th. --- ### Washington Update 12.07.2021 - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/washington-update-12-07-2021/ - Published: 2021-12-07 - Updated: 2021-12-07 “If you’re hanging around with nothing to do and the zoo is closed, come over to the Senate. You’ll get the same kind of feeling and you won’t have to pay.” – Sen. Bob Dole Such was the wit and wisdom of Sen. Bob Dole (R-KS), a war hero and statesman who passed away Sunday at the age of 98. There aren’t many like him left, but his legacy, as with his sense of Congress as a menagerie, will live on. A quiet chaos has gripped the Capitol. A government shutdown was averted, but the hard part—a budget deal—was punted until next February. Now we’re left with what was once considered easy: the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA); and the part that seems like it will last forever: the Build Back Better Act; and the part that few seem to notice: an across-the-board sequester, starting in January, unless Congress intervenes. So, what happens next? We’ll take a stab. The first question on everyone’s mind is timing. Can reconciliation pass both chambers before Christmas? It’s possible, but for that to happen, the Senate must run nearly non-stop, with near-perfect efficiency. What was that Bob Dole quote again? The “Byrd bath,” a much-abused term, won’t run its course until later next week (at the earliest). Getting final determinations from the Senate Parliamentarian requires Republicans and Democrats in the room, with final text and CBO/JCT scores. That will take time. Also note that CBO committed to the Senate Budget Committee (Republicans) to run a full, ten-year score (no budget gimmicks, no “sunsets”) of the Senate substitute (which hasn’t been released yet). While the full score is not required for floor purposes, Sen. Manchin (D-WVA) may want to see it before casting his final vote. That, too, will take time. CBO’s full score, plus the next round of inflation numbers on Dec. 10 from the Department of Labor (bound to get Manchin’s attention), along with a host of issues now being, and yet to be, negotiated (methane tax, oil and gas leasing restrictions, paid family leave, SALT, international tax provisions, among others), will also take time. This is a long list to check off in the next 3 weeks. Again, possible, but Herculean to pull off. Then there’s the fight over how to avert financial default. There will be no default; the question is how that happens. Including a debt-limit suspension in NDAA was floated this weekend, yet that seems far-fetched. As of now, reconciliation is still possible. Some Republicans are brokering a deal that entails a relatively painless Senate Budget Committee markup (few or no amendments) and floor debate (i.e., a very short vote-a-rama). Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has a plan that he will share with Republican Senators at their weekly Tuesday lunch. We will likely know more about next steps after that meeting. And don’t forget the sequester, triggered earlier this year by President Biden’s $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan Act. We’ll spare you the details, but Congress has simply waived the sequester under the Budget Control Act over the last decade. It expires on Dec. 31st. The rescue plan also triggered the statutory PAYGO sequester, requiring hundreds of billions in mandatory spending cuts (Medicare and much else) starting in mid-January. Normally this kind of thing gets buried in an omnibus spending bill, but that won’t happen, if at all, until early next year. The sequester can’t be tucked into reconciliation. In the strange world of DC budgeting, the sequester is an accounting mechanism, meaning it doesn’t score. Which means it violates the Byrd rule. How does it get done? Congress will likely find a way but getting there could be painful. In the meantime, the Department of Justice just announced it will sue Texas over its redistricting map. Last week the Supreme Court heard oral arguments in a case that could result in the demise of Roe and Casey. Inflation is expected to worsen, with energy prices projected to skyrocket come winter. Will any of this matter come November 2022? Some of it will. Hard to say what. In any case, welcome to the zoo. Debt Limit / NDAA – With the government funded until February, the next major deadline for Congress is the debt limit. The discussions about using NDAA to carry it run right into House Republicans, who, fresh from their fight on the bipartisan infrastructure bill, won’t provide an easy out for House Democrats. This is particularly true after former President Trump has issued multiple threatening statements, warning Republicans not to negotiate away the debt limit while reconciliation lumbers along. House Democratic leaders face similar difficulties, as 38 Democrats voted against the House version of NDAA several months ago. Meanwhile, with the Senate defense bill in doubt, staff for the so-called “Big 4”—House Armed Services Chairman Adam Smith (D-WA) and Ranking Member Rep. Mike Rogers (R-AL); Senate Armed Services Chairman Jack Reed (D-RI) and Ranking Member Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK)—are ironing out a compromise bill that can pass both chambers, possibly later this week. Nominations – The Senate’s [Executive Calendar](https://url.emailprotection.link/?bmP4CgKIdbfCCMWhYMS6wBO0jyBLBNB15UvgGQvOJkyMFiuELSXplXVvfCFsIsd_RiEd50tI-C7L675a-qBRrO8vC-o9hSpft1rD9EzJey6LX2k5NxJJBuUBHvIQMfgTp)is exceedingly crowded. Democratic leaders are racing to confirm President Biden’s nominations before the end of the year—and before Republicans can force any unconfirmed nominations back to their respective committees. If successful, Republicans would cause only minor delays. In January, most committees will hold markups to report the nominees to the floor for consideration. Also look for nominations to fill the Senate schedule. There are even talks among Democrats of a nominations “vote-a-rama” to confirm as many nominees as possible this year. Jerome Powell’s re-nomination to chair the Federal Reserve Board likely won’t happen until January. Even with Democratic objections, there is little doubt that Chairman Powell will be confirmed, in good part by support from Republicans (42 supported him last time). House/Senate Floor – The House and Senate’s schedule could be adjusted this week as the country mourns the loss of former Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole (R-KS). For now, in addition to NDAA, the House will likely consider H.R. 5314, the “Protecting Our Democracy Act.” Among other things, the bill addresses presidential abuses and foreign interference in federal elections. Sen. Mike Braun (R-IN) will also try to use the Congressional Review Act (CRA) to overturn the Biden Administration’s vaccine mandate on private employers. Sen. Manchin has indicated he will vote for the CRA “resolution of disapproval.” Braun et al. can send a powerful, bipartisan message, but that’s it: the CRA contemplates no expedited procedures in the House, where leadership determines the floor schedule. Even if it did pass the House, Biden would veto it. And there is no veto-proof majority in either chamber. --- ### 11.30.2021 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/11-30-2021-washington-update/ - Published: 2021-11-30 - Updated: 2021-11-30 With their success in the November elections, Republicans are teeming with optimism about the mid-term elections in 2022. Democrats continue to bleed retirements in competitive seats, while fretting about President Biden’s poll numbers. And they face a brutal December of division over the “Build Back Better Act.” What could go wrong? Who knows? In political terms, the mid-terms are light-years away. The standard Republican talking point we hear—a defensive mechanism, no doubt—is, “Things look great, but we sure have the capacity to screw it up.” True, but facts don’t lie. Democrats are the party in power heading into a mid-term, led by a beleaguered President. They hold majorities in the House and Senate by the skin of their teeth. And the political headwinds appear daunting: GOP-dominated redistricting; crime becoming a major national issue; ongoing anxiety over COVID-19; and inflation running riot. Barring some unforeseen political wave, Republicans are preparing for monumental gains, at all levels of government. Is it premature to be measuring the drapes? Again, maybe. To be sure, the Senate picture is still mixed. With Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH) choosing not to challenge Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH), Republicans winced. But don’t count out New Hampshire. And there are other opportunities—Georgia, Nevada, Arizona. Depending on the national mood, there could be others. As one GOP pundit put it, “We will probably have some accidental senators come 2023.” House Republican gains lie somewhere between 30 and 70 seats. If the concerns now capturing the nation’s attention remain a year from now, our bet is on GOP pickups closer to the higher end of the range. Among other things, we’ll be watching inflation. As Milton Friedman said, “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” But it’s also a political wrecking-ball that by itself can flatten the party in power. This is the backdrop to December 2021. Reconciliation now sits in the Senate, which is busy commencing the parliamentary intrigue known as the “Byrd bath.” Items to be adjudicated before the Parliamentarian and her staff include immigration, prescription drug prices, labor standards, and energy. This can be a mind-numbing process, dictated in good part by precedent and budget scoring conventions. Far more interesting is what’s going in the minds of Senators Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ). Far be it for us to know. We can only go by what they say. For starters, Sen. Sinema was blunt about the House bill: “So, that’s not the agreement the president put out in his framework several weeks ago.” Of course! you might say. The bill will change in the Senate. That’s not news. But how will it change? Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) has his own ideas. “Now the legislation comes to the Senate,” he said, “where I hope to see it strengthened in a number of ways.” Can Bernie Sanders agree with Joe Manchin on what “strengthened” means? Manchin holds considerable leverage in this process. And his political fortunes are entirely different from those of Sanders, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY). Consider the numbers: according to a recent West Virginia poll, Manchin has a 61 percent approval rating. President Biden? 32 percent. And 74 percent said Manchin should oppose the Build Back Better Act. Said Republican pollster Mark Blankenship, “I think that’s what’s recognized here is that Senator Manchin is listening to the people of West Virginia.” As we’ve said from the beginning, this is the fundamental debate that matters most for this bill (and maybe much else). Getting Joe Manchin and Bernie Sanders, along with AOC and House progressives, to agree on final text is a tall order. It can be done, but it will be painful getting there. The coming weeks will come down to finding agreement on paid family leave, climate change, fossil fuels, immigration, drug pricing, healthcare benefits, the SALT tax deduction, and several other issues. Manchin and Sinema are key, but the reality is that Senators Maggie Hassan, Mark Kelly (D-AZ), Raphael Warnock (D-GA), and Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV), all of whom face voters next year, have much more riding on this legislation. Senate and House Floors – Facing a Friday deadline to continue funding the government, the House and Senate are expected to pass another short-term funding resolution extending to January. Schumer is also trying to finish the FY 2022 National Defense Authorization Act early this week. Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Jack Reed (D-RI) and Ranking Member Jim Inhofe (R-OK) continue to negotiate an agreement on amendments. Many Republicans would like to have roll call votes on their priorities and are not ready to call it quits. (There was a 3:30pm filing deadline today for all first-degree amendments to the NDAA.) Debt Limit – While Schumer and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) have had initial conversations about how to address the debt limit, most Senate Republicans remain adamant that Schumer and the Democrats must raise the debt limit on their own. "I don't think that anybody is willing to take that vote again when there's a path forward that doesn't require it,” said Sen. John Thune (R-SD). There is still no firm “X-date,” or the day when Treasury’s extraordinary measures to avoid default run out. While Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has (softly) floated December 15, that is also the day cash will start coming in from estimated corporate taxes, potentially pushing the X-date further into 2022. --- ### 11.16.2021 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/11-16-2021-washington-update/ - Published: 2021-11-16 - Updated: 2021-11-16 Reconciliation – Now that the Congressional Budget Office will finish its score of the House reconciliation bill by COB Friday, will the 5 House Democrats who demanded a full CBO score before voting on it resist pressure from leadership and progressives to vote this week? Time will tell. More time for the “Build Back Better Act” is necessary, but it’s no friend to the majority. Whatever happens with House moderates—Will they wait for CBO? Will they demand more changes? Will they balk on final passage? —one thing is certain: the process around reconciliation, not to mention the messy politics, will drag well into December, possibly right up to Christmas, testing the patience of those exhausted with the entire effort. Consider what lies ahead: - Assuming the House passes the bill, possibly sometime this weekend, or even early next week, it will be held at the desk for the required “privilege” scrub, to ensure it conforms to Senate rules. - Byrd Rule challenges (for the most part) haven’t formally commenced—and won’t until the Senate Parliamentarian has final language and CBO scores in hand—and could take weeks to finish. - The Senate will make additional changes, some substantive (and controversial), which, among other things, could complicate CBO and Joint Tax Committee’s scoring efforts. - The House will have to vote again on whatever the Senate (inevitably) changes and (possibly) passes. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) said it best: “Whatever the House does is irrelevant. The final bill is gonna be written in the Senate, and it’ll be written by two people.” With his typical wry succinctness, McConnell seized on a central fact, and indeed, a potentially fatal flaw, in this entire process. Which leads to the politics. With inflation raging—see the CPI numbers released last week—and showing no sign of abating (i.e., it’s not transitory), throwing an additional $1.75 trillion on the fire may not be the tonic the economy needs. This seems to be Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-WV) position. “From the grocery store to the gas pump,” Manchin tweeted last week, “Americans know the inflation tax is real and DC can no longer ignore the economic pain Americans feel every day.” During his press conference earlier this month, Manchin was equally emphatic: Throughout the last three months, I have been straightforward about my concerns that I will not support a reconciliation package that expands social programs and irresponsibly adds to our nearly $29 trillion in national debt that no one else seems to care about. Nor will I support a package that risks hurting American families suffering from historic inflation. Inflation is no doubt the issue of the day, and it’s not just Manchin’s fixation. Republicans from House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) to McConnell and the rank-and-file are pouncing on it—fingering the BBA as a major cause of consumer woes. As winter approaches, it won’t just be the price of bacon and gasoline spurring complaints; home heating prices (propane, natural gas) are expected to skyrocket. Energy policy will quickly become top of mind, including provisions in reconciliation (e.g., the methane tax) to make it more expensive. Expect to hear more on this, from Manchin, Republicans, and perhaps others, in the coming weeks and months. But that’s not all. Senate Budget Committee Chairman Bernie Sanders (I-VT) continues to push for health care changes that Manchin and Sen. Krysten Sinema (D-AZ) may not abide. Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) wants immigration provisions that could (again) run afoul of the Parliamentarian. And what happens if House progressives see their priorities diluted or deleted in the Senate bill? Maybe all this comes together in the next five weeks, and celebration in the Rose Garden is within reach. But the road ahead looks bumpy to say the least. Appropriations – Speaking of bumpy roads, the outlook for a deal on FY 2022 spending is bleak. When Congress returns from Thanksgiving break, expect another continuing resolution to keep government funded until Dec. 17th (or thereabouts). Barring any breakthrough on negotiations, which seems unlikely at this stage, we may see another CR extending to January, or even February. A few weeks ago, Democrats released their draft spending bills, replete with favored policy riders, and have since demanded Republicans provide detailed counterproposals. For their part, Republicans say the riders are “poison pills” that must be discarded before they will begin discussions on topline numbers for defense and nondefense spending. Some Republicans, such as Senate Appropriations Committee Ranking Member Richard Shelby (R-AL), are speculating about a year-long CR, and seem perfectly fine with it. “We could be headed for a yearly CR,” Shelby said. “A lot of people would like that. One that keeps all the riders off, you know? Think of that from our standpoint.” Rep. Mike Simpson (R-ID), a senior Republican House appropriator, said, “If they want to have the Trump budget for another year, that’s fine with me.” Complicating discussions are the questions surrounding reconciliation, which includes hundreds of billions in new federal spending. For many, it seems futile to negotiate annual appropriations bills until reconciliation is completed. Debt Limit – Meanwhile, the debt limit remains a constant background irritant. Just when it rears its ugly head is anyone’s guess, but it seems the so-called “X date” will come later in December, and possibly in January or February. But Treasury Secretary Yellen, and seemingly the entire financial community, wants the issue resolved quickly. Waiting until after Christmas—if that’s even feasible—seems politically risky, but the crowded Senate calendar may not allow any other option. The 11 Republicans, including McConnell, who voted for the last short-term debt limit deal, continue to signal unwillingness to help Senate Majority Leader Schumer (D-NY) again. Thus, forcing Democrats to raise the debt limit via reconciliation, something they are loath to do, seems likely. To make that process more palatable, Senators Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Pat Toomey (R-PA) are working on an expedited process. To wit: During the Senate Budget Committee markup, Republican members would abstain from filing amendments, which would help get the legislation to the floor more quickly. Republicans could then limit amendments under the ensuing vote-a-rama, limiting debate time (note: given germaneness requirements, there’s not much Republicans could do under Budget Committee jurisdiction anyway). NDAA / Senate Floor – Hundreds of amendments have been filed to the Senate’s FY2022 National Defense Authorization Act, which is expected to be considered on the Senate floor this week. The Senate Armed Services Committee continues to work on an amendment package, while simultaneously working on pre-conferencing with their counterparts on the House Armed Services Committee. Schumer has also teed up the following nominations to be considered: - Graham Steele to be an Assistant Secretary of the Treasury - Robert Bonnie to be Under Secretary of Agriculture for Farm Production and Conservation, and - Brian Eddie Nelson to be Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Crimes The Senate may also proceed to a vote on the confirmation of Jonathan Kanter to be an Assistant Attorney General, at a time to be determined. --- ### And Then There’s Virginia… - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/and-then-theres-virginia/ - Published: 2021-11-04 - Updated: 2023-06-23 “Sic semper tyrannis.” It’s Latin for “thus always to tyrants.” It’s Virginia’s state motto. Few Virginians are aware of it. Until a few months ago, few Virginians were aware of Glenn Youngkin, either. But in the coming days, many will know more about Virginia (and Youngkin) than they cared to know. The reason? Youngkin, a Republican, could win the governor’s race in a state that, according to the nation’s best political commentators, was a lost cause for the party. If he does win—and we stress if—Youngkin could be the GOP’s Deus ex machina, or the external shock emanating from across the Potomac, leaving more chaos in its wake. That a former private equity executive is statistically tied with former Virginia governor and Democratic political operative Terry McAuliffe, is nothing short of remarkable, especially given that, six months ago, Youngkin’s name ID was in single digits. It’s been over a decade since a Republican won statewide. The following chart courtesy of the [New York](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/09/us/virginia-elections-democrats-republicans.html) Times neatly conveys the story: The conventional political wisdom about Virginia was best summarized in The Breeze, the newspaper of James Madison University. “Based on previous elections and polling for Nov. 3,” the paper reported last year, “the time when Democrats lacked urban and suburban support in Virginia seems to have ended and a new era of state politics may be on the rise.” (Emphasis added) “It’s just not a good formula long term,” J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, told The Breeze. Youngkin apparently agrees. While he assumes conservative stances on immigration, crime, and guns to the satisfaction of the GOP base, Youngkin has effectively deemphasized those issues—instead leading with sustained broadsides against the left’s K-12 education policies. The Youngkin campaign sensed something smoldering this summer, as parents angrily confronted school board officials, most prominently in Loudon County—no Republican stronghold, mind you—over what they viewed as divisive social engineering in the classroom. When during the final gubernatorial debate on September 30, McAuliffe spluttered, “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach,” the gaffe went viral, and Youngkin’s 30-second campaign ad wrote itself. If the polls are accurate—again, a big if—education is top of mind for Virginia voters. As a result, Youngkin, and other Republicans following his playbook, could gain serious traction with the suburban vote, seemingly lost to the party of Trump. Let’s be clear: Virginia is a blue state. So even if Youngkin loses, Republicans we speak with still see a silver lining. In their view, if McAuliffe wins by, say, 1 percent, it will represent a 9-point swing from the 2020 election, when Biden beat Trump in Virginia by 10 points. ‘DE JA VU’ ALL OVER AGAIN It seems like “de ja vu all over again.” Recall 2009, the last time the GOP won the Virginia governor’s race, just one year after Barack Obama’s historic election victory. After a year of the Obama Administration, an invigorated right, led by the nascent Tea Party movement, catapulted then state-Attorney General Bob McDonnell to an astonishing 18-point victory over Democrat Creigh Deeds. Coupled with Chris Christie’s win in New Jersey, these races were the harbinger of the GOP’s congressional blow-out in 2010, when they recaptured the U.S. House of Representatives. Make no mistake: you wouldn’t know it from the mainstream media, but according to the latest on-the-ground data, New Jersey’s governor race is now in serious contention. Victories in Virginia, let alone in both states—or again, even narrow losses, counting as moral victories—could presage disaster for Democrats in next year’s midterms—and possibly beyond. House Democrats have been getting distressing news in the form of two recent announced retirements: Representatives Mike Doyle (PA) and David Price (NC), two seats that Republicans could certainly win. As of now, 13 House Democrats won’t be running next year. Recall that Republicans only need to win 5 seats to retake the House (the smallest majority that Democrats have held since World War II). While midterms are over a year away—an eternity in electoral politics—the nation’s political headwinds strongly favor the GOP: The President’s party historically loses seats in midterm elections (according to Karl Rove, since World War II, the party controlling the White House has lost an average of 28 seats in its first midterm). - Republicans firmly control the redistricting process (see Texas, for example, where new district lines alone could give Republicans 5 to 15 seats). - Biden’s approval rating is plummeting, now at 38 percent, according to Quinnipiac. - President Clinton in 1994 and President Obama in 2010 were at 46% and 45% approval, respectively, and both lost control of the House, with Clinton losing 53 seats and Obama losing 63 seats. - According to Quinnipiac, in May, the generic ballot was D+9; today it stands as R+3 (any pollster worth their salt will tell you the GOP almost never polls ahead in the generic ballot). - The latest Politico/Morning Consult poll found 62% say the nation is on the “wrong track.” VIRGINIA, CONGRESS, AND THE “NINE-WAY TEETER-TOTTER” What does all this mean for the fracas over reconciliation, infrastructure, the debt limit, and the end-of-year budget showdown? Again, if Youngkin wins, passing these big-ticket items—already challenging amidst Democrats’ factional infighting—could get harder. Of course, it could all come together, for as Samuel Johnson once said, “Depend upon it, sir, when a man knows he is about to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully.” Consider where we are. Despite projected optimism from Democratic party leadership, the notion of passing reconciliation and infrastructure legislation, even just in the House, before Halloween was always far-fetched. How about an announced framework agreement? President Biden this morning released exactly that, but it’s not clear, as Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) noted, that all 50 Democrats support it, as, in his words, “there’s a great deal of uncertainty within the caucus as to what’s contained in the deal.” Frameworks are one thing; but locking down legislative text, under extreme political duress, is quite another. As we’ve noted, the fundamental difficulty in this exercise lies in reconciling Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WVA) together with Progressive House Democrats, who, like their polar- opposite, the Freedom Caucus, are demonstrating, at least at this stage, iron-willed resolve against compromise. Attempts to get Manchin on board have seemed heavy-handed. To have an elderly socialist from Vermont write an op-ed in a West Virginia newspaper chastising Manchin as a shill for corporate America, selling out seniors, the middle class, and children—there are better ways, it seems, to pick up votes. Recall that Trump carried West Virginia by 39 points in 2020. Not surprisingly, Manchin’s response was swift, direct, and biting: This isn’t the first time an out-of-stater has tried to tell West Virginians what is best for them despite having no relationship to our state…Senator Sanders’ answer is to throw more money on an already overheated economy while 52 other Senators have grave concerns about this approach. To be clear, again, Congress should proceed with caution on any additional spending and I will not vote for a reckless expansion of government programs. No op-ed from a self-declared Independent socialist is going to change that. It’s time now to play four-dimensional chess to bridge the party’s yawning progressive-moderate divide. But how? One thing is obvious, but worth stating: Few Republicans will help with any of this. Not that Democrats need them for reconciliation, of course. But when it comes to the CR and debt limit, they might. End-of-year spending/debt limit battles of recent vintage have been resolved by the so-called “Big Four”: in this case, Speaker Pelosi (D-CA), House Minority Leader McCarthy (R-CA), Senate Majority Leader Schumer (D-NY), and Senate Minority Leader McConnell (R-KY). But maybe not this time. McCarthy is inches from holding the Speaker’s gavel in 2023; along with GOP members eyeing chairmanships, we’re confident McCarthy won’t spend any political capital helping Pelosi get a CR-debt-limit deal across the House floor. Same goes for McConnell. Earlier this month, McConnell helped Schumer pass a short-term debt-limit deal. But Schumer couldn’t resist taunting Republican senators once it passed. He accused them of playing a “dangerous and risky partisan game.” He said Democrats were able to “pull our country back from the cliff’s edge that Republicans tried to push us over.” Sen. Mike Rounds (R-SD), one of 11 Republicans who voted for the deal, was incensed. Schumer, he said, “gave a classless speech.” Another “yes” vote, Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH), called it an “unnecessarily partisan speech.” And yet another, Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT), no firebrand himself, said, “there’s a time to be graceful and there’s a time to be combative, and that was a time for grace.” Republicans we talk with say this is senatorial euphemism for: “Screw you, Chuck.” Many of these senators will be reluctant to help come December—especially after a loss in Virginia next Tuesday. Last week, retiring Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL), ranking member of the Senate Appropriations Committee, and one of the 11 Republicans who voted to proceed to the short-term deal, said he wouldn’t do so again, “and I don’t think any of us would.” In a remarkably scathing letter to Biden after the debt-limit vote, McConnell wrote, “I am writing to make it clear that in light of Senator Schumer’s hysterics and my grave concerns about the ways that another vast, reckless, partisan spending bill would hurt Americans and help China, I will not be a party to any future effort to mitigate the consequences of Democratic mismanagement.” He added: “This childish behavior only further alienated the Republican members who helped facilitate this short-term patch. It has poisoned the well even further.” As negotiations sputter along, likely into November, and possibly December, all four bills, in the eyes of Republicans, have become one big disaster of the Democrats’ own making. Put simply, for Republicans, everything is linked: reconciliation, infrastructure, debt limit, and the CR. Democrats are in charge, they say, so let them fix it. The days of Big Four deals appear to be long gone. The backdrop to this chaos is that, with each passing day, gasoline approaches $4.00 a gallon; inflation inches higher; supply chains are bottlenecking; and labor shortages worsen. So as reconciliation negotiations drag on, passing hard and “human” infrastructure, as one senior White House official told Politico, is like riding a “nine-way teeter-totter.” Add into this volatile mix an upset victory by Republicans in Virginia. It could be, as one pundit described it to us, “some pretty high-octane gasoline added to a growing inferno.” Again, maybe. But a win next week could reverberate not just in 2021, but in 2022 and even 2024. --- ### 11.2.2021 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/11-2-2021-washington-update/ - Published: 2021-11-02 - Updated: 2021-11-02 Reconciliation & Infrastructure – This week Democrats continue their search for an elusive goal: uniting their respective party factions—with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) on one side, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) on the other—around the “Build Back Better Act” (reconciliation, or “BBB”) and the “Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act” (infrastructure). As they search, voters are heading to the polls in New Jersey and Virginia (early voting in both states commenced a few weeks ago), and a Republican victory tomorrow in one, or both, states could cause two divergent reactions. As Samuel Johnson once said, “Depend upon it, sir, when a man knows he is about to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully.” In other words, losing the governor’s races in Virginia and/or New Jersey could provide an external shock to the system, one that unites the party, forces quick compromise, leading to immediate passage of both bills. Or, quite possibly, losing either or both states could prove cataclysmic, inducing moderates and progressives to retreat to their ideological corners, with moderates demanding an immediate vote on infrastructure, and a pause on reconciliation, while their compatriots argue that the election results argue for boldness, and therefore a return to the $3.5 trillion spend-a-thon. The third option, of course, is to continue muddling along. It’s possible the House votes on both bills later this week, but before they do, progressives are demanding Manchin and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) publicly commit to the Biden framework announced last week. So far, no such commitment is forthcoming. Some lawmakers speculated that, last week, as many as 40 House Democrats were prepared to vote against the infrastructure bill absent Manchin and Sinema’s pledges. Last week, Democratic Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL), when asked whether Senate Democrats unanimously supported the framework, replied, “No, I wish I could say yes, but there's a great deal of uncertainty within the caucus as to what's contained in the deal.” In a tweet, Sinema confirmed Durbin’s lament, as she would only convey platitudes about the process. “After months of productive, good-faith negotiations with @POTUS and the White House,” she wrote, “we have made significant progress on the proposed budget reconciliation package. I look forward to getting this done, expanding economic opportunities, and helping everyday families get ahead.” Today, Manchin was more definitive, but in the wrong direction. He urged Democrats to pass the infrastructure bill, noting that holding it “hostage” won’t help secure his support for reconciliation. “As more of the real details … are released,” he continued, “what I see are shell games — budget gimmicks that make the real cost of the so-called $1.75 trillion bill … almost twice that amount, if the full time is run out.” He added, “The political games need to stop.” Meanwhile, the public sniping across factions shows no sign of abating. In a barely concealed jibe at Manchin and Sinema, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) had this to say: “The problem is not with the President, the problem is with members here who, although they are very few in number, they are a significant minority, think that they have a right to determine what the rest of the Congress should be doing.” House progressives seem intent to maintain their leverage and continue their fight to strengthen reconciliation along ideological lines. Sanders’ statement only seemed to add fuel to their fire. Speaking of leverage: progressives are acting rationally. In this process, it seems that nearly everyone has it. As former leadership staffers, we can’t recall a time when a group of just 5 House members—let alone the 90-plus in the progressive caucus, or the dozens who consider themselves moderates—could stop legislation of this magnitude from passing. Yes, as is obvious, the Senate is operating on a knife-edge, with only one senator needed to derail a bill. But so is the House. Recall the Freedom Caucus as the thorn-in-the-side of Speaker John Boehner. A helpful analogy, but his vote margin during critical budget fights was far larger than Pelosi’s, giving him some, albeit thin, cushion (aided by some Democrats willing to help). Pelosi has no such wiggle room (and with no Republicans willing to help). In addition to getting consensus across factional lines, party leadership is contending with process. Consider the House. It’s entirely possible that, once House Democrats have the votes, they move immediately to vote on BBB and infrastructure. And, per House rules, they could do that without having a final score on the BBB from the Congressional Budget Office and Joint Tax Committee. That would be odd, to say the least—this is a budget reconciliation bill, after all—but given there’s little time, such niceties could be dispensed with. But not so fast: getting official scores could prove consequential, and necessary, to moderates concerned about voting for the BBB. In the Senate, there’s no such discretion; process is integral to how the chamber functions, especially when it comes to reconciliation. Scores are necessary, as is getting resolution on myriad Byrd rule questions (see, for instance, immigration), many of which will be raised ad nauseam by Republicans. Speaking of which, Senate Republicans believe the House draft bill is rife with “Byrd-able” provisions, raising the prospect of additional wrangling between Manchin, Sinema, progressives—and many others. As of this writing, formal engagement with the Parliamentarian (immigration excepted) has yet to begin in earnest. Also, with a bill this big in size and scope, there are bound to be drafting errors, so regardless of whether on overall deal is struck, a Senate substitute is in the offing. That means the House will likely have to vote twice on the BBB. All this process pushes negotiations ever closer to early December, when Congress must deal with an expiring continuing resolution to keep government operating, and possibly an increase in the federal debt limit. As to the latter, some are speculating that Treasury has more time to employ “extraordinary measures,” thus punting the so-called X-date to as late as February. But one problem (among others): if its passes and becomes law, the bipartisan infrastructure bill requires a general fund transfer to the highway trust fund of $118 billion ($90 billion for highways; $28 billion for mass transit). That could accelerate the X-date. Time may be running out for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) to proceed with using reconciliation to raise the debt limit. Schumer contended last week that doing so would take two weeks. As we noted last week, the 11 Republicans, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), who helped pass last month’s short-term debt limit deal, were infuriated by Schumer’s partisan rant after the October deal passed. The 11 may not repeat the favor this time around. Appropriations – With that in mind, we still see little chance of an omnibus passing at the end of the year. Appropriations Committee Vice-Chair Richard Shelby (R-AL) put it bluntly, “Until reconciliation, the debt (limit), infrastructure — they gotta get out of the way — and I think our focus will then be on funding the government.” On getting something done this year, Shelby said, “It would take a miracle.” While much of the attention is on defense and non-defense spending, many Republicans are incensed over Democrats’ poison-pill policy riders, particularly around abortion-related provisions. House Republicans – House Republicans are holding another series of roundtable meetings this week designed to highlight key policies in the reconciliation package that Republicans oppose. This week’s meetings will cover the following topics: - Local business taxes and regulations – November 2nd - Nationalized elementary schools – November 3rd - “Made in America” tax – November 4th - Socialized medicine – November 5th In addition, House Republican leadership and staff directors just completed a multi-day planning session to prepare for end-of-year business and a possible GOP majority in 2023. Senate Floor This Week – As the Senate waits to see what the House can pass, it will work on the following nominations: - Beth Robinson to be United States Circuit Judge for the Second Circuit; - Toby Heytens to be United States Circuit Judge for the Fourth Circuit; - Jonathan Davidson to be Deputy Under Secretary of the Treasury; - Benjamin Harris to be an Assistant Secretary of the Treasury; - Isobel Coleman, of New York, to be a Deputy Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development; - Jeffrey Prieto to be an Assistant Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency; and - Rajesh Nayak to be an Assistant Secretary of Labor. --- ### The CGCN Group and Matador Announce Merger - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/the-cgcn-group-and-matador-announce-merger/ - Published: 2021-10-28 - Updated: 2023-06-23 “Bringing our teams together will not only expand our stable of award-winning strategic communications experts but provide an even deeper bench of knowledge and expertise for all of our clients” WASHINGTON, DC (Thursday, October 28) – Today, the CGCN Group, an advocacy and strategic communications firm, and Matador, a public affairs firm, announced the merger of their respective companies. The combined organizations, operating under the CGCN name, will offer a comprehensive list of services ranging from strategic and crisis communications to public affairs and advocacy. The CGCN Group is a fully integrated advocacy and strategic communications firm recognized for its unparalleled relationships across government and media, and its ability to develop winning campaigns by successfully shaping policy and regulatory debates. Founded by veteran communications strategist Tracey Schmitt in 2018, Matador has quickly become a go-to communications shop for those seeking creative, sophisticated, and informed counsel to drive impactful public affairs and strategic communications campaigns. Schmitt, a campaign and communications strategist, will join CGCN as a Senior Partner. Merrill Smith will join as a Partner and Katherine Coughlin as a Policy Advisor. Matador’s Chief Creative Officer, Nick Lintott, will continue to provide creative and production services through [Matador Media Group](http://www.matadordc.com/). “We are thrilled to be joining forces with Matador. Bringing our teams together will not only expand our stable of award-winning strategic communications experts but provide an even deeper bench of knowledge and expertise for all of our clients,” said Matt Rhoades, co-CEO of the CGCN Group. “I’ve known Tracey and Merrill for years, and they are top-notch talent with an exceptional level of experience, talent and professionalism. We can’t wait to hit the ground running.” Schmitt founded Matador after nearly two decades of developing winning strategies for high profile leaders in the public, private and political sectors; including the White House, and three presidential campaigns. “We are excited to join forces with the respected, talented, and trusted team at CGCN Group,” said Schmitt. “Since our launch in 2018, we have been approached by other firms, but it wasn’t until my discussion with Matt and the team at CGCN that I was confident this was the right move at the right time. I’m incredibly proud of what we’ve built and believe this next chapter will result in a stronger organization, poised to meet the growing demand for savvy and cutting-edge communications campaigns. Smith has over 20 years’ experience working in the highest levels of government, politics, and private sector communications. She worked on two presidential campaigns, the White House, and in the private sector prior to joining Matador. Coughlin is a lawyer who served as a counsel on the Senate Judiciary Committee. She has vast experience and expertise in judiciary, health care and immigration issues. The merger will go into effect on November 1, 2021. What follows are Schmitt, Smith, and Coughlin’s biographies: TRACEY SCHMITT Veteran communications strategist, Tracey Schmitt founded Matador after nearly two decades of developing winning strategies for high profile leaders in the public, private and political sectors; including the White House, and three presidential campaigns. ​On the front lines of Republican politics, she advised candidates and campaigns at the forefront of the national political and policy debates as the National Press Secretary for the Republican National Committee, a Spokeswoman for President George W. Bush's re-election campaign, National Press Secretary for the 2005 Presidential Inaugural Committee, and the Deputy Communications Director and Spokeswoman for the McCain-Palin Presidential Campaign, in the fall of 2008. ​In the private sector, Tracey has counseled numerous business leaders and CEOs at the intersection of policy, government relations, and public relations. As Senior Vice President of Global Public Affairs at Emergent BioSolutions, a global biodefense and biopharmaceutical company, Schmitt led an award-winning team whose portfolio included Public Affairs, Global Public Relations, Investor Communications, Branding, and Corporate Social Responsibility. She has been published in the New York Times and has appeared on network and cable television as a political analyst. Her work has taken her to over thirty countries across Europe, Asia, Middle East, Australasia, Africa, and Central America. A graduate of the University of Southern California's Annenberg School of Journalism, her graduate studies have included Executive Education programs at both the Harvard School of Business and Oxford University. MERRILL SMITH ​Merrill Smith’s career in public affairs and politics began when she nixed the idea of law school and took leave from her job as a real estate paralegal at Morgan Lewis & Bockius LLP, to volunteer on then-Governor George W. Bush’s 2000 presidential campaign. Following him to the White House in January 2001, she held various positions, ultimately serving as Deputy Director for Public Affairs in the Office of The Vice President, where she was engaged in strategic communications planning and execution for foreign, domestic, and political affairs. ​Later, as a spokesperson for the Bush-Cheney 2004 re-election campaign, she developed and led the campaign’s strategic communications for the critical Midwest region, which included Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Illinois. In this role, she served as the primary on-the-record liaison with key state reporters and national media covering the region and led a team of state-based communicators. Following the President’s re-election, she was tapped to be the Deputy Director on the 55th Presidential Inaugural Committee where she was responsible for the development of the inauguration’s official commemorative book, George W. Bush: Portrait of a Leader. In the private sector, Smith has provided legislative, public affairs, media and development counsel for clients ranging from Fortune 50 corporations to grassroots coalitions and some of the nation’s leading philanthropic organizations, both as a Director at Public Strategies, Inc. and as an independent consultant. Her smart and substantive approach has earned her a reputation as a trusted advisor for public policy, political and business leaders alike. Smith earned a Bachelor of Arts in English from the University of Virginia. KATHERINE COUGHLIN Katherine Coughlin’s diverse and distinguished public policy, legal and legislative career has placed her at ground zero of some of the most critical debates of our time. Upon passing the Texas Bar, following her graduation from the University of Texas School of Law, she began her Washington career as a Presidential appointee in the Office of the Assistant Attorney General, Civil Division at the US Department of Justice. Six days into her tenure there, the attacks of 9/11 forever changed our country, and became the primary focus of her work at DOJ. She received a Special Commendation award for her role in the development of the 9/11 Victim Compensation fund. Additionally, she worked closely with the State Department on the issue of terrorism financing, and later filed a brief on a critical deportation case in the Eleventh Circuit. As counsel on the Senate Judiciary Committee, Katherine advised US Senator Chairman Orrin Hatch on Judicial nominees, including the confirmations of several sitting federal judges. A long-time advisor to United States Senator John Cornyn, Katherine served as his lead counsel for immigration and health care, intimately involved in all aspects of those key policy areas. In this capacity, she provided legislative counsel, drafting critical policy and speeches, and led the dialogue with critical stakeholders including leaders of PhRMA, hospitals, patients, insurance, and physician groups. ​Katherine graduated cum laude with a Bachelors in Business Administration from Southern Methodist University, and she received her law degree from the University of Texas School of Law. --- ### Washington Update 9.21.2021 - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/washington-update-9-21-2021/ - Published: 2021-09-21 - Updated: 2021-09-21 Continuing Resolution / Debt Limit – This week, the House will consider a continuing resolution to fund federal agencies until December, provide disaster relief funding, and extend the debt limit until after the midterm elections. The House is expected to pass the package and send it to the Senate, where Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) are engaged in a high-stakes game of chicken. We believe the White House and Democratic leadership are not taking McConnell seriously. They should. Leader McConnell has said he and his conference are unified and will not support attaching a suspension of the debt limit to a continuing resolution or any other must-pass legislation. Based on our sources, this means Republicans are prepared to filibuster a CR-debt limit bill. While Democrats may wish to test Sen. McConnell, our colleague and Leader McConnell alum, Antonia Ferrier, put it best last week to the New York Times, “The left trying to move Senator McConnell with shame or pressure is like trying to move Mount Everest with a light breeze.” So, what’s the upshot? It seems increasingly clear that most Senate Republicans, at least at this point, seem willing, via the filibuster, to allow a government shutdown, at least for a short time. In their minds, this would force a negotiation over the debt limit, which won’t become real until sometime in October, or later, depending in part on the level of September 15th quarterly tax payments. Some Democrats seem to be coming around to the realization that they aren’t going to get sufficient Republican support on the debt limit, thus forcing them to do it on their own. House Budget Committee Chairman John Yarmuth (D-KY) publicly speculated on Monday on one such possibility, saying, “We can do it through reconciliation. Leadership has said they don’t want to do that. The reason is if we do that through reconciliation, we actually have to specify a number.” If the Senate were to vote on a stand-alone CR with disaster funding and a few other anomalies, it would pass with Republican support. What some Democrats haven’t yet grasped is that many Republicans see the debate on the debt limit as a proxy fight on reconciliation. While Democrats say Republicans must pay for Trump-era spending, Republicans argue the next debt limit suspension would pay for the Democratic reconciliation package, and they should therefore revise their budget resolution to include new debt limit instructions. Reconciliation – To date, the House Budget Committee has not yet announced when it will compile last week’s committee-passed text into one package, demonstrating that the reconciliation process will not conclude in the coming weeks as some had hoped. The reason is straightforward: to date, CBO has only scored legislation from 3 of the 13 committees that have reported their respective pieces of reconciliation. CBO’s remaining efforts will take time. So far, no markup in the Budget Committee has been scheduled this week, and next week is looking dicey. This timeline, albeit speculative, would push the vote on reconciliation into October, or well beyond the Sept. 27 deadline to vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill that Speaker Pelosi promised her moderates in August (more on that below). While the House Budget Committee’s effort is mostly procedural, the real work will be on the expected managers' amendment to the reconciliation bill in the House Rules Committee. There, Speaker Pelosi and her leadership team will have to concoct a near-miraculous legislative alchemy—through manifold tweaks, recissions, additions, and edits—to arrive at the magic number of 218. The overriding goal at Rules will be to address unresolved issues from the various House committee markups. There are open issues on the SALT deduction, drug pricing, and various proposed pay-fors. House Democratic leadership must also address concerns from moderate House Democrats who are not comfortable voting for a bill that Senate Democratic leadership will likely change anyway. There are five or more House Democrats who may have concerns with the direction the House has taken so far, including: Representatives Kurt Schrader (D-OR), Jerry Golden (D-ME), Kathleen Rice (D-NY), Scott Peters (D-CA), and Stephanie Murphy (D-CA). Several other members have SALT issues, and there are likely additional members who could raise other concerns. Any additional issue or complication could prove fatal as Democrats can’t afford to lose more than three votes. What does this portend for the Senate? As best we can tell, the Senate is intent on following its own muse. Among other things, a wayward Senate means the House will have to vote twice on reconciliation, something Pelosi was intent on avoiding. The Senate Finance and House Ways and Means Committees are battling over various tax provisions; Senate Energy and Natural Resources has had little input or coordination on key energy provisions with the House Energy and Commerce and Natural Resources Committees. In short, differences abound. President Biden is now personally involved in talks with Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Krysten Sinema (D-AZ), which is a help for Democratic committee chairs and leaders who have been working with them to address their priorities. However, media reports indicated that President Biden failed to persuade Sen. Manchin to agree to spend $3.5 trillion on reconciliation, with indications that he is still adamant about keeping spending levels at $1.5 trillion. Another report stated that Sen. Sinema told President Biden that if the House delays its scheduled September 27 vote on the bipartisan infrastructure plan, or the vote fails, she won't support a reconciliation bill. This all illustrates how complicated it will be for Democratic leaders to solve these issues in the coming weeks if not months. Transportation – House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) announced that the House will consider the Senate-passed Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act the week of September 27, which is in line with the rule passed in mid-August. Shortly after the vote announcement, Congressional Progressive Caucus Chairwoman Pramila Jayapal (D-WA) said her caucus will vote against the infrastructure bill unless the Senate and House have already passed the reconciliation package. “It won’t have sufficient votes to pass the House,” she said bluntly. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) said today that, “I will not vote for the infrastructure bill unless reconciliation has passed both chambers.” We don’t believe that either the White House or Pelosi would put the infrastructure bill on the floor if it were destined to fail. A failed vote on a key pillar of the President’s “Build Back Better” agenda would be portrayed as a failure for both the President and the Speaker. It’s important to note here that anywhere from 25 to 40 House Republicans could vote for the infrastructure bill, but only on one crystal-clear condition: that the bill is definitively separated, with plenty of calendar days in between, from the reconciliation bill. If the infrastructure bill becomes an addendum to reconciliation, then nearly all House Republicans will bail. Moreover, don’t expect a single Republican—including every member from the Tuesday Group to the Freedom Caucus—to become the 218th vote on infrastructure. If Pelosi is struggling in whipping votes, Republicans won’t throw her a lifeline. Senate This Week - The Senate will process the nominations of Veronica Rossman to be a U.S. Circuit Judge for the Tenth Circuit and Margaret Strickland to be a U.S. District Judge for the District of New Mexico. Last week, Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) vitiated cloture on the motion to proceed to S.2093, the “For the People Act of 2021.” There is the possibility that Leader Schumer may file cloture on the motion to proceed to the recently introduced S.2747, the “Freedom to Vote Act,” which was developed by a group of senators that included Sen. Manchin. The bill would mandate national standards for early voting and vote-by-mail, establish Election Day as a national holiday, and create new disclosure requirements for donors. While Manchin hopes to secure Republican votes for the bill, Senate Republicans remain adamant that the bill improperly overrides the roles of state and local governments. House This Week – In addition to considering the continuing resolution, the House will consider at the end of the week, H.R. 3755, the “Women’s Health Protection Act,” which would create a national right to abortion services. This is in response to the Supreme Court refusing to enjoin Texas’ anti-abortion law. The House will also process H.R. 4350, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2022, on Wednesday and Thursday. The measure was previously adopted by the House Armed Services Committee by a bipartisan vote of 57 to 2. --- ### 09.14.21 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/09-14-21-washington-update/ - Published: 2021-09-14 - Updated: 2021-09-14 Reconciliation – The details of how House Democrats plan to spend and finance their $3.5 trillion spending bill are coming to light. House committees will finish consideration of their respective portions of the reconciliation bill by Wednesday and report final language to the House Budget Committee to be compiled into a single bill. The House Ways and Means Committee has released key details of how it would like to provide $1.2 trillion in tax breaks for families and renewable-energy producers. Of note, nearly half of the tax credits are being spent on the child tax credit. Fast becoming the bete noire of progressives, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), very publicly Sunday on CNN, is already chiming in with his views on these proposals—and they’re not making Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) happy. He is suggesting means-testing for the child tax credit, along with potential work requirements. Manchin also is questioning, and on one important issue actually opposing, some of the House’s green energy proposals. “The transition is happening,” he said yesterday. “Now they’re wanting to pay companies for what they’re already doing. It makes no sense to me at all for us to take billions of dollars and pay utilities for what they’re going to do as the market transitions.” Manchin was referring specifically to the House and Energy Commerce Committee’s “Clean Energy Performance Program,” or CEPP, a policy the White House and progressives badly want, because it would effectively overhaul the nation’s electric grid (and not in a good way). If Manchin is a “no” on CEPP, which seems to be the case, then it’s likely dead. Even if Manchin approves, the CEPP still faces high hurdles from a certain Byrd Rule challenge by Republicans. House Democrats are also aiming to raise around $2 trillion in new taxes and revenue and have settled on a 26.5% corporate tax rate. Other revenue proposals include moving the top capital gains rate to 25%, modifying the Global Intangible Low-Taxed Income (GILTI) regime, increasing taxes on high-income individuals, as well as numerous other revenue proposals, which are outlined [HERE](https://url.emailprotection.link/?bIuhySld_ECWTrdEGunoMAvRl9sZoxvqEOcg5lU2WWR2zB-yl-SGikd54Q0ZH8yk0yaK-3t2DGVPkXxD-7lI2YCv5oKkM7Csr02WiREOKVgj7oc0IBpZlGMgDLlhCNlkkizV9wAN7tOVgqRneXnbF8-gEMFR9OqbK9uaR3RqjEKtidLLxUZGGc7jV3uuqPy3lha393iMqbuYXiRYshKBO_lHwwK8t5joLRfwJT4OlU0Km2h44Y-5th_biwuTNneKH). While House Democrats have settled on pay-fors, there is no indication that Senate Democrats will simply rubber-stamp what the House prefers. It is not a coincidence that every day brings news of another revenue raiser (such as stock buybacks, executive compensation, etc.) being floated by Senate Democrats. Senate Democratic leadership and Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden (D-OR) need to have multiple, alternative tax proposals ready to fill any funding voids that occur during the negotiations within their caucus. We thought it might be helpful to compile the various House committee reconciliation bill drafts. We hope it is a helpful resource to you. - Agriculture - [[PDF](https://url.emailprotection.link/?bfjwFqCwrCyBcuL83qtwUUkKqpOAaXL9ptzKSGqT_YOd2U5IjD40NKgl149DATnXm7KlJ_OLxvP_qi_7e0EXWjXr3Ng4u9Z4JL76OFZIQ34BNUpG_O9uYPV7Jz-bSakvlFwtv5Sza0DR91YidCO0FL1SS1ZzZqpIQxnG91kfKwBQ~)] - Education and Labor - [[PDF](https://url.emailprotection.link/?b_jtYf92IMkIQ3Vm9vOr6ZQZUS2-SfmchP4onl7d6aMPnnmqo9EQjbVJbm34YFei5uv1IrRZGRARITQm_Uq62vW8xsUXXtfzv0uO_iTw_nHQQZ-yRjH1yQCORobiTdx0nmhfPXHgQUxJQMOhdKEFrxI2-QOrDGCcaRebzoE3C3J0~)] - Energy and Commerce - [[PDF](https://url.emailprotection.link/?br7cU8RojQ03DcfHgWGQGRsmZgHyTjKBGblI2CejotvLXanPrnatDN3fqh1rzpeDV9Dj-PGG7AkQl4ZfA-1Sp62GdVkKZKZ-GH8RDJM091x0jBlxSYnsdWw-d8cEKm0A9DTJejJ7M65ZYLPg1V8ioA544W-gZ8Yl7u6zUwFMMOSk~)] [[PDF](https://url.emailprotection.link/?bJn6qNoRjtJVLsJ4_-DOSdLpUvUCT0dsXklIzcGnJltxgfAo9zMnSmOkiroL00E3KAbiJHdqlbe1tSeugOYATV8-T-02_Q5ZMSMnBRrSDer7yzg-iunevh3IJtJ2mzR1-dcB02OZwl4C_TtDwfkA0iN03lv_5iMsZqxL94JaoxqM~)] [[PDF](https://url.emailprotection.link/?bULmDfa-GMVI0DybXGsXcbUANasXj7wx8Hfdx18At42kKUo4sP_phQE4HzBAcC7b-ECGwrk2YBUZdIgdPfzjv6IdmevK5rWWSsWNjBUlFIR-TQmY_IA0M32zPZV_nWBz6ihru6wUvG3JpAzkVc-08SUCOqwMjtOK_t9UKNMwtAVs~)] [[PDF](https://url.emailprotection.link/?bULmDfa-GMVI0DybXGsXcbZGBiQzvh7apM3zu8nm8Gadyd1zR2Lz3UUSvh1A60EVKBPTE2UeKgllDVC_GNAs-nrX8WkKN8igjf4eCfC5P2T482hcZrZ6u7mUP3PBpYvyIjGTtU0BIhVAj1WdcG-uOo7Y7yn02GizTzOh-Cd_AjmA~)] [[PDF](https://url.emailprotection.link/?bULmDfa-GMVI0DybXGsXcbZCJ_55fZg9pTGZReG1w9DUhZqi4zANuQHw6FCSOSeOdD2GyQIupNusegFnNO5fzCPZ_bOLpA7Sa_SsM2R1jmscEbGBIdywS3S_3YWQQw_a1p0iILKArM_5GY70PriFTBbta2lFpujO0o09Mscgq-eQ~)] [[PDF](https://url.emailprotection.link/?bxNy2Rij16POUFxDjaXPJwnKQ3SjOeN1uVYVaf0lbYgrjrwgvBjXnewEWe7_WZHnX4MwClWydsFO5G3oLm6E9G199QfVISEjiMUZza77SZgGZIfofRuNxpET1Q1Gb50b5iMb3VJy_N9C9OOiB8Y0iyi2Y_LuYGE2LEJmVbIDY66s~)] [[PDF](https://url.emailprotection.link/?br7cU8RojQ03DcfHgWGQGRiwXqOYSrWrSpN00n3yDf4ooyFXWKYlViXdu6wr6VJxwhQ2pVAzn_L0uYdtpAL5urqcHJvfXf4f0TX8QuTZ14cO9fCW-mbzPxp0oMKzZ4cfyAybgoqCDQ51_VJdEgd2da_gkjV-dt87gBW7pK87aJf0~)] [[PDF](https://url.emailprotection.link/?bULmDfa-GMVI0DybXGsXcbXaUmEKbRtXP-Fq7euQH-GP8QoYKHHD2IgD6uhQhILl8bZNy7zqjZZ-8a0e84-ai-bn97hW2dczXMbOVS_Ik3FnYZGBoaNejM-Yk67VWTbi9tNVi9U3PthHTB1q3KsJaa61T4BsEu-rcgCbyIBBz1HU~)] [[PDF](https://url.emailprotection.link/?br7cU8RojQ03DcfHgWGQGRnIThibDjh_n-qeU9KANPSe4cQyCzi_XfDsX7Pij1hhzQ08QMKaIZr9V-hJjYas1sgft8V9yEzfwCYfof5-lYntF4dDBqaaNISj8Nll3Rwti5vljovhuIwhXlMLwjFW6A2lMD2Z3YaPjK3VZduk0N9A~)] [[PDF](https://url.emailprotection.link/?bULmDfa-GMVI0DybXGsXcbTKCvY3dzqoykipKIM5d_hNJyhSkqYHn_5uPpHGcBlcGozh2oWUMbd4rLbt_aY7n5l55ZuGML7p5UVGZejx0OJYpS-iFotiqsLwc8bzSNQJVEpiBwLodGGQtsGdNwgkKTsTTguRIFVmf26usT4bqGOU~)] [[PDF](https://url.emailprotection.link/?bi5l_0V03xske6v0uKcr7IXWV8vWPS88N8qLMhs4BstEN6IEvIYXSzGYELm_v0Qq5AqgcBMPyEKiyXzQkt58YAY1FgsxEzkaHkwZH7F0SVssNZml0EZKAO4kMop0VAMMITFNt7pLZVhDZ_mC3a7h9U-lvFQW7c85g9nXCV-UdMs8~)] [[PDF](https://url.emailprotection.link/?btiQq2f9uoZJaKgOzCORbWY3kj0PUaCalsJop3_AUYKcAp8fChQ2oVOKY9P4FwA9X2-y1kWohM2KD796L0iJY0L1hbAG7Iw4a9UF5F2FHCQY1eRXZZSI1dsBHm-ZshP-jvsaEczDDvuOlySXRQxpgdnwz518PkVLp6EuA7I6cQsk~)] [[PDF](https://url.emailprotection.link/?bqFXOra5g4Wnp7UyYEH3MZLuYS8eV6O55X9EXwoalczMRHq23UTE7SD-_-nPXfQuh1w0vfYEhZZBPec_DdobbtB4D48A4DVqsZoKLA9YhaWj_uhl8X0Wcyw0wwlswVOjU-0355iGP2tihkB7etLYA3MdQITFoih2lksTfN05MrMs~)] [[PDF](https://url.emailprotection.link/?bxNy2Rij16POUFxDjaXPJwtm2Eca-T-u3_LMC7tx2kDk0eq6dgV1lbniiB8DwgwtTkFgxPXMvVemZ6Aw-9vVnnC-WoPcL7auWmUP53TaT6JyMTCaZW17oa13sUX148fXDfq7BgEcorgv0T4DCpKXOx5y-j_M_T9TaRseuRxJqzAk~)] [[PDF](https://url.emailprotection.link/?bKwK79B1j-5PF9EWKC62un7MWzsFkNlpGrS6vKa8ZGPouAhphkfIBaky4TU4OZwk6Px-AS-JeobIXlmwgL37a3hwck4XZll2zDOzk2-n5zyzzxgNKf1oemm8QwxZoAMQ1JBafjVoE8mAP1_778_4ThCIaHfXKnCvIGbOf7KkKYg4~)] [[PDF](https://url.emailprotection.link/?bxNy2Rij16POUFxDjaXPJwlsMMrdgr5N2i8n9zieZyvZ2C-PIs31fK5fWgvr6Jn0f-dhkbFf2y4Wa29YqQ0YaxJGZTF8-sp2-ze6LTKu-Ca5D8MEedvfLefAmUqFqgVlMD8Vz3QNyhhbbJDkiLxjesEprTKHVyxs_bx4oLq4Zdw0~)] - Financial Services - [[PDF](https://url.emailprotection.link/?b9T5l48HBiU_cHcaBL7zZu8YsfAk51V-VvchDr9vzL0dmmwZ_nznsXv7GUrUaSq-jibeVObM0vmNvdouZgaXkk30XCXkV-Bsv6RIGB73GhlJE93H5ACg91zJXgb1i_kUmACWL6BC6mpATyXCLirov9J2SLAeVefpuF51ubebp5BE~)] - Homeland - [[PDF](https://url.emailprotection.link/?b63n5vDGIcWd6VyHN-iRwdUz4Utfqzv0oudvwya2Cn3FqSZpS-tCK4LalxyYAiKWs1kQDmg0JZj6MB8csgwMvS9ItrriyW_XE8OV2pdj7zwxoTH1MSCopoapEzZV1xMwijD5r5BJ9UQITRh1HEakzE7rCXb9XxiIRAVzhVZRnID8~)] - Judiciary - [[PDF](https://url.emailprotection.link/?bCfYh8G56utlDz6JwZ5Ug_feUk-24GWrfo30FyODTshVOgmi2gmFCJfN3R4fNTFNpq44TOzIx_kM_suuFKJZbXXwrpDI1SoiviTbnugJV_gGwaO4su5vNVf64r3rc9HOdrObEtviiDD545gTSw8qbg3IXDq0iqpf1JKTeGfveg40~)] - Natural Resources - [[PDF](https://url.emailprotection.link/?bqH6oY4-xr5lIxmqhvvjBVHFm2IcqrqvjcL7FIltAxSNauC_ZQ7uvAicuOUsMMULJxfsrPSvZsDRsvyImeeiJpW8RTFwZWiGZzkHHqhQdjuoKfGpV2F-uTiARVj-3KEZquTBMqfEDsjO7DG29rqGJRtYdnZstpN_p374Bz7f05MM~)] - Oversight - [[PDF](https://url.emailprotection.link/?bk8y9PnW_-ENWSeOnoZDV8iltifXQcsV0QFIkxPXfMv2p7ThtqKSnQFVNY42tf23XfhcafTS0OqZcg73klucKhcNj4q3nqgvAHaUjtchs1Z9HZUzsPCtQL4cN-1GEnvucYgTyuHodU1q6_IIBsOVHGvp0gExIorCv-U5gu3BaqH0~)] - Science, Space, and Technology - [[PDF](https://url.emailprotection.link/?bo4xH1l7H148hloUZtOeKBAnr30KDcX7fGnFeBQ8esDF857NWcPWxe2SuuGD9Q4khZV6k8tiKpHsMHdqtubLrUMOp0aFllyDHeIEaGS2BbNgybZC5vj9WWOqVTdiFSi-LdyvZFSP2WF7nGxxoESWFcRE3LESVpM4AGvDn0DeJtMk~)] - Small Business - [[PDF](https://url.emailprotection.link/?bOspZWXVxguHHioo6zPYtu2Nqb4WfPmx0k3aJBX2EaOlLhOBOJue0T32R7zSpkNyliNqeKcSQXUNQK_0N_fNMhudvG4_yo9ut8BqgkeUUKwPL15Kds_btaYIBfmLjKfrm)] - Transportation & Infrastructure - [[PDF](https://url.emailprotection.link/?b4RORDvSpg5tzEP9F4B37jSLXHPCPMoDuX4D7Z-tWRxF3gP5GhIVp7mNOexQfdwvHGc7LX6kA2lu4usu-IRWpG0Xk2WGfvmN_2gSNti6c0-DOYM_3jkw-_PTe8dPWYTj1whhWx9YcB0qv08DdTOSbTRWaRu_z4obC2yaBXTJZ4J8~)] - Ways and Means - [[PDF](https://url.emailprotection.link/?bEMoL3_8G6o_5-JI8MlVrZCPaUyNJxzULMCexXczCbs4C2F-WyTDIjRk9pCKYBtK4xEJG7Lmp2vNooJ5TwYr0eB1Vfr_FjT4fdQR8tqVKaR6hmu0MyOOf39UhsbYBosTvjXm-b6jcTC7n9ObbhvTa-d5bYJ5WbR0M8_80U4tzBMo~)] [[PDF](https://url.emailprotection.link/?b9T5l48HBiU_cHcaBL7zZu8YsfAk51V-VvchDr9vzL0eJzJfjE6s9HRXOj88XARZ3uzbQvKwtzUZQB4ZOjMgfKAQ85SFQDckSuLEPaNXpwfcuhAE8dKr4N7huiiLBdVZhNNQQDc8B7cV5_5ZsL-4c5XQcMGm5H1myovieoh8hz1U~)] [[PDF](https://url.emailprotection.link/?bTfZDuE2EPbZA6KeBveu4jqnaywFRELdtElQzf1ahVqMmzNgSYGF5Lsv5BE1Mdv8TAN8hVNrxpvIJuBQpJRgsQ8xtaS6p_0NvL9yS6cVhOav1_WZoynMzyEfeLRFoWHGF07qO4_n2HUxC2qStLQVZIehND3-nEwia5mN_P2pmMcw~)] [[PDF](https://url.emailprotection.link/?bUzBWW-HkPSXYtIZ7FE0bUBo_tMiTYJ9c4f_PzMfIitV79UrT2q2uoTaNwvlgbgzVZe7KH-Lb_vMipLeMz5_YYl7N_2m8VajzoQybYVcGmAibPU99G_Lakc3r5jTu7R55dwbcoV1v05L0mSwRai3mGFezUMr7G3c6SQHc6ZQ6ADQ~)] [[PDF](https://url.emailprotection.link/?bYq95cowzkOZn0sUwCSDRIl4MtZWDvJBUl9Jsxtmz5rA7KD4NxHpxnQ09pBMIpRE16TmiddoiWpWQWAT1g5xE3fJyXjK6KKi24OQ-20FBYar6zhsXr_3OGGHpZLDGxmN8hQ1Orv4TPX709V6wQpA6uAAm3VeyeMIas2vVn_QNdUg~)] [[PDF](https://url.emailprotection.link/?brMNGg_t-A0tLlYSvmc7r1P31WQtarHLTomYd-EvL9oaCmbehd_7nI9iLLsT_V5PyjIuROS2Kn5IIAguPBxftW4ccoA4z1Jx_FDrrtDTTPoagib3ZRGRSb9HLRgtldXIzVygl-xwsAkc514prgGoC-205KoK3JIE_q3WeogkPNt8~)] [[PDF](https://url.emailprotection.link/?bF6959Y1hhHCapv2MGtJA9yehRqVBzulKORDc4S9Ose-XgULuRC3Tu0-DKmpAvW-852fqN5-c3Rc3BIeEJHdMAKJt9eLFWOakD6A1esuHwSaz926iP-MlVuQul5ECc6KkeZSZIcV6g-INPwDVfNap-eFU1Eb2yHL7qxm2M4vQvis~)] [[PDF](https://url.emailprotection.link/?bnzTgMphr14F51DVnlrNT6V36oIGdrhoVbP7JH4srNR02hbEFDf6Vy7ncLSBpalzreaOXsLRf0U8tEJND1n8lRHhmkoLzbJM_1mqI0eu68QTHrg3j7Zwq-qnMoEonseRN5ccwO7XnfCfAToV3xU6i6IU4QTzwB3GhiGZiLSob6Ps~)] [[PDF](https://url.emailprotection.link/?boy8khZ4CCBKdtYKCqwdsq8GQZFi-mfDOmFK_RG6Rtjm_h1v33G99qe-OxoxRmVZdkx6w9j303oMKxoNJt0QaibTJLna1vIW-5uFTYWJ4OJ9nM12qw2GyVC4z6KQ-Na9lcRooJArUrhTzjtexZ_63VLaWA-M-6oXm0oOVkP0x4ms~)] - Veterans’ Affairs - [[PDF](https://url.emailprotection.link/?bP8VaKgt5Pc1Vg0BsAWZ2GeIAR6MC0-A57ORglExwRyj03BTJmJ82Be-yJNKGiXoMoldnMxu8jdO1z7nGB-WY3tpQb7398dBUU5Fl7BxKXgm8SXzECKVTP0fwVSr4FMd4huaFrV4W9uGkvqcy2eqU9il-4x9Dk7I5WmuKnG87dcQ~)] Continuing Resolution & Debt Limit – The showdown continues between Democratic and Republican leaders on how to fund the government and address the pending expiration of the debt limit suspension. House Democratic leaders are now contemplating having a floor vote next week on a continuing resolution (CR) to extend government funding to early December, which may also include language to institute another debt limit suspension. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is steadfast in his position that Democrats must pass the debt limit on their own, recently saying that “it’s their obligation to do it.” Whether McConnell means Republicans would actually filibuster a CR coupled with a debt limit increase is unclear. Notably, the letter signed by 48 Republican senators did not broach the topic. At this point, both sides think the other will ultimately blink. It is important to highlight that there is no “Big 4” negotiated agreement this Congress, and this represents the first real test for Speaker Pelosi (D-CA), and leaders Schumer (D-NY), McConnell, and McCarthy (R-CA) since last year’s COVID emergency relief measures. Other possible options for the debt limit are combining it with disaster and Afghani refugee relief funding, compiling a standalone bill, or commencing bipartisan negotiations, in which Republicans would undoubtedly demand spending reforms and other concessions. Senate This Week – Outside of considering the reconciliation package, the continuing resolution, the National Defense Authorization Act and addressing the debt limit this fall, the Senate will be processing more executive branch and judicial nominees. The following nominees will be considered this week: - James Richard Kvaal to be Under Secretary of Education; - David Estudillo to be United States District Judge for the Western District of Washington; - Angel Kelley to be United States District Judge for the District of Massachusetts; and - Veronica S. Rossman to be United States Circuit Judge for the Tenth Circuit. Before the Senate adjourned for the August recess, Majority Leader Schumer also filed cloture on voting rights reform legislation, S.2093, For the People Act. There is no question that Senate Republicans will block the bill from advancing, a move that will intensify calls by progressives to ditch the filibuster. --- ### 9.08.2021 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/9-08-2021-washington-update/ - Published: 2021-09-08 - Updated: 2021-09-08 Reconciliation – The brief respite of (a truncated) August recess is over, and if you thought a few weeks of vacation would replace drama and chaos with clarity and direction, well…who would have thought that? Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-WV) op-ed last week announcing his opposition to a $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill was consistent with his thinking, and therefore unsurprising, but nonetheless it still whipped up the Beltway message machine. Progressives were outraged, Republicans were gleeful, and Democratic leaders were stoic. We’ve heard it said that Manchin’s missive means that some bill less than $3.5 trillion will pass. Maybe, but nothing is certain except death and taxes (and now, apparently, death taxes). If you want to reduce this exercise to something simple: it’s all about the math. To that end, House and Senate Democratic committees conferred during August about the contours and content of reconciliation. The Senate Finance and House Ways and Means committees continue to shoulder the bulk of the effort, including the mammoth task of figuring out the specifics of pay-fors, which include, among others, raising the corporate tax rate, the top marginal personal income tax rate, the capital gains rate, and reforming international tax rules. Also in the mix are potential excise taxes on CEO pay and stock buybacks. The non-binding deadline for House committees to complete their portions of the reconciliation package is September 15. The House Natural Resources and House Oversight committees began markups last week, but many other committees, including Ways and Means, and Education and Labor, won’t begin until this Thursday. The Ways and Means markup will span several days and conclude next week with the debate on revenue raisers. The House Financial Services, Judiciary, and Energy and Commerce committees will start on September 13, while the House Transportation Committee will follow on September 14. As the House committee process unfolds, informal, behind-the-scenes efforts on the Senate’s Byrd Rule have begun. Specifically, Senate minority committee staff are sending background policy memos to the Parliamentarian’s staff as a means of framing Byrd Rule debates on reconciliation. These efforts will take time and will undoubtedly affect the House timeline. Further complicating that timeline is the necessity of obtaining formal scores of the legislation from the Congressional Budget Office and the Joint Committee on Taxation. There are also the continued questions about Senators Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), that is, what is the ultimate number ($3 trillion? $2 trillion?) and the policies they can bear on reconciliation? Though they remain in the background, several Senate Democrats facing tough reelection fights next year will face the same questions. (Rest assured, they won’t be in the background much longer.) Democrats are trying to complete work on their reconciliation package by the end of September, so they can then vote on the bipartisan infrastructure package before September 27, conforming to a deal struck between Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and several Democratic moderates. This is ambitious, to say the least, particularly because progressives could delay consideration of the bipartisan infrastructure bill if they object to the parameters or timing of reconciliation. Again, with just three seats to spare, for Pelosi and Democratic leaders, it’s all about the math, that is, when it adds up to 218 and 51. Appropriations & Continuing Resolution – As the fiscal year draws to a close (September 30th), a continuing resolution (CR) extending to early December appears likely. But passing it is another matter: Republicans have vowed to oppose legislation increasing the debt limit, which, Democrats have promised, will be attached to the CR. Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) put it bluntly, “I don’t think there are going to be any Republican votes to increase the debt limit without some structural reforms. So I think if the Democrats are going to pass it, they ought to stick it on [budget] reconciliation.” Democrats, however, have answered that with a resounding “no.” Does this mean, then, that Republicans will filibuster the CR? Doing so could be dicey, given the political and financial consequences, and especially if Democrats also include emergency spending to address the fallout from Hurricane Ida and western wildfires. In any case, we expect the Democrats to start pounding away on a time-honored theme—government shutdown, government default, and hurricane victims left empty-handed—and to do so relentlessly for the next three weeks. (Notably, the Congressional Budget Office believes the Treasury Department’s use of extraordinary measures to avert default will be exhausted at the end of October or November.) Also complicating the debate is the White House's request to include supplemental funding in the CR for hurricane and wildfire relief funds as well as Afghanistan response aid. Other policies such as abortion could also be advocated by some members during the process. The appropriations process will remain a quagmire until a top-line spending agreement is reached between Democratic and Republican leaders. That won’t be easy. Republicans want a commitment to dollar-for-dollar spending increases in defense and non-defense spending. Both the House and Senate Armed Services committees voted to increase top-line spending in the National Defense Authorization Act above President Biden’s budget request, which was a blow to progressives seeking Pentagon cuts. Republicans also want to renew a previous agreement with Democrats to keep longstanding bipartisan policy riders in and poison pills out. For Republicans, the top priority is keeping the Hyde Amendment. Also, expect a fight over border security funding. It’s worth noting that a CR will maintain Trump-era spending levels for the Department of Homeland Security, much to the consternation of Democrats. National Defense Authorization Act – Both the House and Senate Armed Services Committee have now completed consideration of their versions of the fiscal year 2022 NDAA, and each bill is expected to have floor time in their respective chamber soon after reconciliation has been completed. This could occur sometime in October. --- ### 08.09.2021 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/08-09-2021-washington-update/ - Published: 2021-08-09 - Updated: 2021-08-09 Infrastructure – The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act will come to a final vote as early as tomorrow morning. Conservative Senate Republicans blocked efforts this weekend to expedite consideration of the bill. But those came to end last night, as the Senate voted to adopt the Sinema-Portman substitute amendment by a vote of 69 to 28, and invoked cloture on the bill. At Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-CA) behest, the House won’t consider the bill until the Senate passes reconciliation legislation in September. As former House Republican leadership staffers, many of us know that Speaker Pelosi’s urgent task now is to find the math to pass the Senate’s bipartisan infrastructure bill. The progressives who recently showed they are willing to hold firm just last week (eviction moratorium) remind us of the House Freedom Caucus problems Speaker Boehner dealt with unsuccessfully. Speaker Pelosi can schedule a vote, but pressure on her is meaningless unless the White House can convince nearly every House Democrat to support whatever vehicle they would like to move. We don’t expect any more than a handful of House Republicans to support this product. The bipartisan nature of the Senate compromise absolutely won’t spill over into House politics. In fact, you can argue it hurts the House majority’s ability to pass it. Why would House chairmen, progressives or even moderate Democrats feel compelled to vote for something that retiring Senate Republicans negotiated? Budget Resolution – Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Senate Budget Committee Chairman Bernie Sanders (I-VT) are racing to pass the fiscal year 2022 budget resolution by mid-week. Chairman Sanders released [text](https://url.emailprotection.link/?bdfdCBpcdEXUASYP_roAWdgyeyFvOKrEKM5PyMQQD61zJaSDqZRKFBF4-xAOYkURl5C1uLekQ3hURUhxzNA9F8KBFmfhQShBJ5oiS3UycfS4U5bH51RjdNfnIof_gZhph) this morning. It includes $3.5 trillion in reconciliation instructions, with committees expected to produce their proposals by September 15th, though this date is non-binding. In the Senate, the budget resolution is privileged, meaning the motion to proceed is not debatable and does not have to sit for a day before coming to the floor. Once the resolution is placed on the Senate calendar, Leader Schumer can make a motion to proceed to its consideration, a motion that requires a simple majority vote to pass. Under budget rules, there will be up to 50 hours of debate, evenly divided, between the majority and minority leaders or their designees, and amendment votes can commence during this time. While the Democratic caucus is expected to yield back much of their time, Senate Republicans will unleash a vigorous political counterattack. Though budget resolutions have no legal effect, they are important political statements reflecting the spending priorities of the majority party. Knowing this, Republicans plan to use every tool in their arsenal to make this process as painful as possible. The GOP’s point of maximum political leverage comes after the 50 hours of debate have lapsed or been yielded back, when the so-called “vote-a-rama” begins. This is when things will get interesting on the floor. As they did earlier this year, Senate Republicans will force difficult votes, on everything from taxes to inflation to the Green New Deal, for Democrats, especially those facing tough reelections next year. Democrats, in turn, will try to mitigate the damage by offering side-by-side amendments, attempting to return the favor by forcing 2022 Republicans into political thickets of their own. Vote-a-rama will end once Republicans stop offering amendments. Notably, during the vote-a-rama on the FY 2021 budget resolution in February, 45 out of 889 amendments filed received a vote. After the Senate passes the budget resolution, it will be sent to the House. Speaker Pelosi will call back the House, now in recess, to pass it. We expect that the House will hold votes the week of August 23rd on the budget resolution as well as potentially considering election reform legislation. Under normal circumstances, this would be a logistical headache, but with proxy voting still in effect, several members can vote from home, so the resolution is expected to pass by the end of the month. The following 12 Senate committees will receive reconciliation instructions: - Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry - Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs - Commerce, Science, and Technology - Energy and Natural Resources - Environment and Public Works - Finance - Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions - Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs - Judiciary - Indian Affairs - Small Business and Entrepreneurship, and - Veterans Affairs In the House, the following committees will receive reconciliation instructions: - Agriculture - Education and Labor - Energy and Commerce - Financial Services - Homeland Security - Judiciary - Natural Resources - Science, Space, and Technology - Small Business - Transportation and Infrastructure - Veterans’ Affairs, and - Way and Means Election Reform – Leader Schumer may tee up cloture votes on two election reform bills before the Senate leaves for August recess. Over the weekend, he took the procedural step to potentially call up S.2670, the Redistricting Reform Act and S.2671, the DISCLOSE Act, which requires additional disclosures from corporations, labor organizations, and Super PACs. Republicans will uniformly oppose these measures, which means they will fail to overcome the 60-vote threshold. --- ### 08.03.2021 Wasington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/08-03-2021-wasington-update/ - Published: 2021-08-03 - Updated: 2021-08-03 Infrastructure – With text now in hand, senators are deciding whether and how to amend the bipartisan infrastructure bill, and whether, in the end, they will support it. Playing oddsmaker is a perilous business in Washington, but if we had our druthers, we’d say the bill is likely to pass the Senate this week. In terms of timing, we expect a cloture vote as early as Wednesday. Recall that under the Senate power-sharing agreement, Schumer must debate a new measure for 12 hours before filing cloture. Post-cloture, amendments must be germane to the underlying bill. Environment and Public Works Committee Chairman Tom Carper (D-DE) and Ranking Member Shelly Moore Capito (R-WV) will serve as the bill’s floor managers. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) wants a final vote later this week, when he will then pivot to the fiscal year 2022 budget resolution. While 17 Republicans voted to begin consideration of the infrastructure bill, support among the rest of the conference, at least at this point, varies considerably. Some appear inclined to back the bill, but only if their amendments pass. Others are simply feeling the pressure to join the bipartisan confab. And still others are closely analyzing the bill’s pay-fors, that is, to assess whether they provide real money to offset the bill’s price tag (many say they don’t). The funeral for Sen. Mike Enzi (R-WY) on Friday could also push final consideration of the bill until the weekend as several members would like to attend his memorial service. The 60-vote threshold for amendments should hold firm during the debate, and many of the “gang” will unite to block amendments that would fundamentally change the agreement, especially any changes to their proposed pay-fors. The Portman-Sinema deal has endured weeks of ridicule from progressive House members. One of the main objectors is House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee Chairman Peter DeFazio (D-OR), who wants a House-Senate conference so he can salvage some of the House-passed INVEST Act. Instead, sympathetic senators could include some House priorities during the Senate’s debate on amendments. Another challenge for the House Democratic leadership: with the swearing-in of Rep. Jake Ellzey (R-TX) last Friday, they now have just a 3-vote majority. Before leaving town last week, the House failed to pass an extension to the nationwide eviction moratorium, a priority for the Democratic leadership and the Biden administration. As we have mentioned before, House Democrats can’t count on any support for the package from House Republicans. Despite being a bipartisan agreement, the partisan dynamics in the House are very different than in the Senate, where many Republican supporters of the package are retiring after this Congress. House Republicans are not happy with Speaker Pelosi’s plan to combine the bill with the Democrats’ human infrastructure in reconciliation. With their eye on retaking the majority next Congress, House Republicans are unlikely to provide any help to Democrats in getting this passed. Finally, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-CA) plan to combine the Senate’s bipartisan infrastructure bill with the $3.5 trillion reconciliation package means that it could be weeks or months until the House finally votes, providing ample time for the Democrats’ legislative agenda to slip off the rails. Budget Resolution - Senate Budget Committee Chairman Bernie Sanders (I-VT) expects the fiscal year 2022 budget resolution to be on the Senate floor next week. Leader Schumer has said that all 50 Democrats are prepared to vote to advance the resolution, which, at this point, includes reconciliation instructions amounting to $3.5 trillion. As with the previous budget resolution earlier this year, expect Senate Republicans, during the time-honored “vote-a-rama,” to file hundreds of amendments, with many of them aimed at Democrats facing tough reelections next year. Leader Schumer will try to use the pending August recess to expedite debate and voting as much as possible. Much of the actual reconciliation bill will be developed over August recess but jockeying by members to include their priorities has already begun. The White House, Speaker Pelosi, and several progressives are already saying that provisions that may violate the Senate Byrd rule, such as immigration reform and a clean electricity standard (CES), should be included. Proponents of immigration reform argue that it has an impact on the budget, thus making it eligible for reconciliation. Not so, said Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), who summarized his thoughts in a simple tweet, “Designed to fail.” We expect the House to include these and other policy measures in reconciliation in a naked attempt to gain votes. In the Senate, all eyes will be on Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), who will focus on the energy and climate change provisions in the bill, and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ). Last week, Sinema stated that, “I have also made clear that while I will support beginning this process, I do not support a bill that costs $3.5 trillion – and in the coming months, I will work in good faith to develop this legislation with my colleagues and the administration to strengthen Arizona’s economy and help Arizona’s everyday families get ahead.” Signaling the difficult road ahead for Schumer’s two-part legislative strategy, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) responded to Sinema this way: “Good luck tanking your own party’s investment on childcare, climate action, and infrastructure while presuming you’ll survive a 3 vote House margin - especially after choosing to exclude members of color from negotiations and calling that a ‘bipartisan accomplishment.’” Appropriations – The Senate Appropriations Committee will markup its first three fiscal year 2022 spending bills this week when it considers the Military Construction-VA, Agriculture, and Energy and Water bills. --- ### 07.27.2021 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/07-27-2021-washington-update/ - Published: 2021-07-27 - Updated: 2021-07-27 Infrastructure/Budget Resolution –The Senate’s bipartisan “group of 22” spent the weekend trying to finalize the nearly $600 billion infrastructure package—but to no avail. If anything, the package appears to be on life support. Disagreement remains over funding for mass transit, broadband, drinking water, and unspent COVID relief, as well as Davis-Bacon provisions. Assuming an agreement is reached, the bill text will receive an official score from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Drafters expect that the “amendment in the nature of a substitute” will include the bipartisan infrastructure spending agreement as well as the text of Sen. Carper (D-DE) and Sen Capito’s (R-WV) Surface Transportation Reauthorization Act. If an agreement were reached, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) will likely file a motion to reconsider the failed cloture vote on (the motion to proceed to) H.R.3684, the shell for the Senate bill. After this, if supporters garner 60 votes, it will likely take the rest of the week, and perhaps into next, to finish Senate debate. This timing assumes a deal is reached in the next few days. Moreover, a significant issue, heretofore unaddressed, is how the gang will deal with amendments, of which there will be many, and from both sides of the aisle. The outcome of any one of those could upset the delicate political balance achieved by the bill’s authors. Schumer choosing to “fill the amendment tree” to diminish the number of amendments doesn’t seem like a viable option. What’s more, no one quite knows who will manage the bill on the floor. Senator Portman (R-PA)? Senator Sinema (D-AZ)? Portman and Sinema together? Senate Republican members of the gang are looking to recruit 5 to 10 other Republicans to vote for the package. The chief selling points are that the package will be fully paid for, and that senators should want to take credit for infrastructure investments they would have supported no matter who was in the White House. And don’t forget, they are reminding their colleagues, that the Trump White House supported a $1 trillion infrastructure bill. The key to broader Republican support hinges in part on the CBO score, that is, whether the proposed offsets are real or illusory. With the press concentrating almost exclusively on Senate drama, it’s easy to forget the House. But notably last week, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) reiterated her position that, “We will not take up the infrastructure bill until the Senate passes the reconciliation measure.” As we’ve noted, Democrats cannot assume House Republicans will vote for the bipartisan infrastructure package. The recent events surrounding the January 6th Commission, along with Pelosi’s insistence that both packages have to move together, have brought House Republicans closer together, meaning only a few GOP outliers could break from staunch conference opposition. Democrats have only 3 votes to lose, and House progressives are growing restless. It’s worth noting that House Transportation and Infrastructure Chairman Pete DeFazio (D-ORE) released a “Dear Colleague” last week condemning the Senate highway reauthorization bill. DeFazio noted that, among other major differences, the House INVEST in America Act has 1,475 “Member Designated Projects,” otherwise known as earmarks. The Senate highway reauthorization has none. It’s also worth remembering that should the bipartisan infrastructure bill collapse, Democrats could simply add a good chunk of the nearly $600 billion in infrastructure spending backed by Republicans into the $3.5-trillion reconciliation plan, to bring the actual total to $4.1 trillion. This fact is not lost on many Republicans who are eyeing this process warily. Leader Schumer and Budget Committee Chairman Sanders (I-VT) want to have the $3.5 budget proposal with reconciliation instructions ready for a floor vote in early August. The calendar is starting to get tight and the first week of the August recess could be converted into a Senate work week. It’s not just the budget resolution that would keep Senators in D.C., as a U.S. Capitol Police and National Guard emergency funding bill also needs to be passed. Chances of the Senate staying in session the week of August 9th increase by the day. House Floor this Week and NDAA – Unless the House is called back to process the FY2022 budget resolution, this is the last week the House is in session until mid-September. The House will attempt to pass an appropriations minibus, H.R. 4502, which will consist of the Agriculture-FDA, Energy and Water, Financial Services, Interior-Environment, Labor-HHS-Education, Military Construction-VA, and Transportation-HUD spending bills. The Legislative Branch, State-Foreign Ops, and Commerce-Justice-Science appropriations bills could also be added to the minibus this week. These appropriations bills have been a tough sell for some members of the House Democratic Caucus. The Democratic leadership also has no margin for error, as Republicans will maintain full unity in opposition to these spending bills. Several Senate Appropriations Committee subcommittees may mark up the Agriculture-FDA, Energy and Water, Military Construction-VA, and Transportation-HUD spending bills next week. House Armed Services Committee subcommittees will mark up portions of the fiscal year 2022 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) this week. The Cyber-Innovative Technologies and Information Systems, Strategic Forces, Seapower and Projection Forces, and Military Personnel subcommittees will hold their markups on Wednesday. Thursday sees the Tactical Air and Land Forces, Readiness, and Intelligence and Special Operations subcommittees conducting votes in their subcommittees. A full committee NDAA markup is planned for September 1. Senate Floor this Week – The Senate could commence debate on the bipartisan infrastructure agreement, but the Senate will also consider, among others potentially, Todd Kim to be an Assistant Attorney General. --- ### 07.20.2021 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/07-20-2021-washington-update/ - Published: 2021-07-20 - Updated: 2021-07-20 Infrastructure/Budget Resolution – The fate of more than $4 trillion in new federal spending will be tested on Wednesday, when the Senate takes a procedural vote on the bipartisan infrastructure agreement and talks continue on the Fiscal Year 2022 budget resolution. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) will likely file cloture on H.R. 3684, the INVEST in America Act, which was the House-passed infrastructure bill. That bill serves as the vehicle to carry the eventual text—still being negotiated—of the bipartisan infrastructure framework (BIF). Wednesday's vote requires 60 senators to pass, including 10 Republicans. So far, even Republicans in the bipartisan “Group of 22” are indicating they may oppose procedural motions until their talks, and legislative text, have been finalized. It seems inconceivable that final bill text, with an accompanying score by the Congressional Budget Office, will be ready in time for Wednesday's vote. Nonetheless, Leader Schumer is undeterred. He clearly senses momentum building, and support growing, within the Senate Democratic Caucus for a partisan reconciliation bill. Slowing down at this stage is not an option, as he indicated on the Senate floor last week: “It’s important to keep the two-track process moving. All parties involved in the bipartisan infrastructure bill talks must now finalize their agreement so that the Senate can begin considering that legislation next week.” At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the vexing issue of offsets continues to bedevil BIF negotiators. Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) best summarized the issue this way: “When one side takes off taxes, and the other side takes off user fees, that doesn't give you a lot of” options to raise revenue. Both sides are engaging in the equivalent of looking under couch cushions for available—and real—offsets. With Democrats now intending to close the tax gap through reconciliation, a sizable budget hole will now need to be filled in the infrastructure agreement. Moreover, Schumer’s two tracks are starting to cannibalize each other—“BIF” scavengers desperately seeking pay-fors are treading into reconciliation territory, the boundaries of which are being rigorously policed by Senate Finance Chairman Ron Wyden (D-OR). In short, it’s more important to Wyden and Schumer that reconciliation, rather than BIF, is paid for. Leader Schumer has also set a Wednesday deadline to reach consensus amongst Senate Democratic members on the partisan $3.5 trillion budget resolution. Finance Committee Chairman Wyden has said, “we’re gonna pay for $3.5 trillion” through revenue-raising and cost-saving plans. He also stated that, “we're running them by all my colleagues,” so it will be interesting to see which revenue measures are red lines for certain Democratic senators. Also, keep your eye on House Democrats. House Speaker Pelosi (D-CA) said the House can be expected to change and “realign some of those priorities” in the Senate budget resolution, which is not surprising given her extremely tight majority and narrow margin of error. Inflation – Inflation is clearly not going away as a major political issue. Last week, we learned that consumer prices surged 5.4% in June from a year ago, the biggest increase in 13 years. House Republicans have been sounding the alarm on inflation for months, and now Senate Republicans are following suit. As Democratic members advance their reconciliation package this fall, expect inflation to be the number one counterpunch from the GOP. Take, for example, Senate Minority Leader McConnell (R-KY), who, when asked about Democratic plans to spend $3.5 trillion through reconciliation, said that “with inflation raging at the highest level in 40 years, [its] wildly out of proportion with the need right now.” To further emphasize the issue, House Minority Leader McCarthy (R-CA) sent [a letter](https://www.republicanleader.gov/the-real-effects-of-inflation/) to GOP members last night regarding rising inflation and shared personal stories from constituents around the country negatively impacted by it. Republicans will continue to tout the success of “Operation Warp Speed,” and the delivery of COVID-19 vaccines that helped reopen the country quickly. All of that success, they argue, is falling victim to an economic crisis fueled by Democratic policies. House Floor/Appropriations – The House this week will consider a bill to increase access to U.S. visas for Afghan allies who supported the U.S. military. In addition, the House will vote on H.R. 2467, the “PFAS Action Act of 2021,” which would require the EPA to designate per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances as hazardous substances, as well as legislation that would give the Federal Trade Commission authority to seek refunds for defrauded customers. Pay attention to the House Rules Committee, as it considers amendments for the upcoming appropriations “mini-bus” legislation that includes Fiscal Year 2022 funding for Labor-HHS-Education, Agriculture-FDA, Energy-Water, Interior-Environment, Military Construction-VA, Transportation-HUD and Financial Services-General Government appropriation subcommittees. House Democratic leadership may add bills to the package, but questions remain whether they have the votes to pass them. All amendments are due Wednesday at 5:00 pm. Senate Floor This Week and NDAA – In addition to the potential bipartisan infrastructure agreement, Leader Schumer also filed cloture on the nominations of Kenneth Polite to be an Assistant Attorney General and Jennifer Abruzzo to be General Counsel of the National Labor Relations Board. The Senate Armed Services Committee began subcommittee markups of the Fiscal Year 2022 National Defense Authorization Act tonight with a full committee markup being conducted this Wednesday and if necessary, Thursday. --- ### 07.13.2021 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/07-13-2021-washington-update/ - Published: 2021-07-13 - Updated: 2021-07-13 Infrastructure – The bipartisan group of 22 Senators--Sen. Jackie Rosen (D-NV) being the newest member--has been drafting legislative text, based on their infrastructure framework, which they hope to share with Senate colleagues this week. Senators Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) and Rob Portman (R-OH) have been spearheading this effort, with the White House and a few Senate committee staffers assisting on some details. Republicans especially are skeptical of the proposed pay-fors (as they should be); Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has said his conference wants to see a Congressional Budget Office analysis “to see whether the proposal is credibly paid for.” But skepticism prevails among some Democrats, too. On their side, there is griping over paying for infrastructure with unused unemployment insurance funds and untapped COVID-19 relief funding previously designated for state and local governments. For Republicans, the proposal causing the greatest angst is filling the so-called “tax gap” by spending billions to increase IRS enforcement agents to audit more U.S. taxpayers. Conservative groups are already lining up against it. These groups could make the proposal a ‘key vote’ for their Congressional scorecards, which will matter for many Republicans, especially in the House. (We note also that the tax gap pay-for likely violates budget scoring conventions—you can’t spend money to save money—and therefore might not be officially scored by CBO.) Even though 11 Republican senators are working on drafting the legislation, we remain skeptical that there will be 10 Republicans—the number needed, as many argue, to reach the 60-vote threshold—firmly committed to voting for the final bipartisan agreement, which would ultimately sink the legislation. Any linkage to a future reconciliation package is a non-starter for Republicans. Not surprisingly, they don’t trust Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-NY) and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), both of whom have been openly dilating on the Senate’s “dual track” and that the final bipartisan agreement would only be considered in the House at the same time as reconciliation. As all of this occurs, Democrats on the Senate Budget Committee are continuing to work on their fiscal year 2022 budget resolution, and they hope to have details for public consumption in the coming days. They are busily crafting the top-line spending cap for reconciliation, with some reports now suggesting $3.5 trillion, rather than the $6 trillion preferred by Budget Committee Chairman Bernie Sanders (I-VT). The budget resolution will set up the consideration of a reconciliation bill in September or October that will focus on welfare spending, tax increases, healthcare reform, and climate change. Majority Leader Schumer has said that the Senate will vote on the budget resolution before the start of August recess. House Democrats are content to let the Senate Budget Committee take the first step on a budget. Debt Limit, Appropriations & CR – The current two-year suspension of the debt limit will expire on August 1. Democratic leaders will want to raise or suspend the debt limit until after next year's election but how they choose to do so is still to be determined. Democrats could choose to raise the debt ceiling using the budget reconciliation package, meaning it would only need a simple majority to pass in the Senate. Reconciliation has been used four times to raise the debt limit, most recently in 1997, but a debt limit suspension has never been done through reconciliation before. A concern with that plan is that lawmakers don’t know the so-called “X date” when the Treasury Department's extraordinary measures will end. Given this unknown date, there is a fear that the X date could occur before the reconciliation package is ready to move in the House and Senate. Determining that fateful date is more difficult because of the pandemic’s lingering economic effects. Another option for Democrats is to set up a stand-alone bill addressing the debt ceiling. This could be done by having the House attach a suspension of the debt limit to the upcoming budget resolution this month, but the Senate would still require a suspension bill to pass under the normal 60 vote threshold. Republicans are unlikely to support a clean debt limit bill without securing other policy commitments and concessions. Senate Republicans this spring adopted a nonbinding conference rule requiring any debt limit increase to be offset with spending cuts or structural reforms in federal spending. The fallback position for Democratic leaders will be to do a short-term suspension of the debt limit until the end of the year and attach it to a likely continuing resolution to keep the government funded. There is virtually no time for House and Senate appropriators to reach a funding agreement before October 1. Given these time constraints, and the politics behind spending and other related hot-button issues (e.g., restrictions on federal funding of abortion) a continuing resolution until November 19 or December 10 is possible. The House has a “Committee Work Week” this week, with the following Appropriations subcommittee markups: Labor/HHS/Education, Energy and Water, Commerce/Justice/Science, Transportation/HUD, and Homeland/Defense. Despite progress at the subcommittee level, the House is in session for just two weeks in July, giving House Democrats a very small window to advance bills on the House floor before the August recess. Senate appropriators could start subcommittee markups the last week of July or early August. China / U.S. Innovation and Competition Act - The House is drafting China legislation as a counteroffer to the Senate-passed China bill from earlier this summer. Key differences remain, and thus prospects for a bicameral, bipartisan deal, at least anytime soon, remain elusive. The House has been working on passing smaller bills approved by the Science and Technology, Energy and Commerce, Foreign Affairs, and Ways and Means committees. The goal would be for the products to be negotiated with the Senate and gain bicameral agreement for possible consideration at the end of the year. The House Foreign Affairs Committee will continue its markup tomorrow of H.R. 3524, “Ensuring American Global Leadership and Engagement Act,” which House Republicans oppose because of issues related to climate change and the overall cost of the bill. Both parties see China as an adversary, growing increasingly hostile and irredentist over time, but they differ in some important respects about how to deal with that. On top of this, House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Richard Neal (D-MA) strongly opposes the agreement reached between Senate Finance Chairman Ron Wyden (D-OR) and Ranking Member Mike Crapo (R-ID) on reauthorizing the Generalized System of Preferences and the Miscellaneous Tariff Bill. Senate Floor This Week – Majority Leader Schumer filed cloture on the following nominations that will be considered this week: - Uzra Zeya to be an undersecretary at the State Department; - Julie Su to be Deputy Secretary of the Labor Department; - Jocelyn Samuels to be a Member of the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission; - Seema Nanda to be Solicitor for the Department of Labor; - Nellie Liang to be Under Secretary of the Treasury; - Donald Remy to be Deputy Secretary of Veterans Affairs; and - Tiffany Cunningham to be U.S. Circuit Judge for the Federal Circuit. --- ### 06.29.2021 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/06-29-2021-washington-update/ - Published: 2021-06-29 - Updated: 2021-06-29 Infrastructure – Despite a tumultuous week, defined by President Joe Biden’s topsy-turvy performance, the bipartisan infrastructure process continues apace. Staff to the “gang of 21” are putting pen to paper to flesh out the $953 billion framework, with the goal of completing a draft in two weeks, and hoping the bill hits the Senate floor before August recess. That’s ambitious, to say the least, for several reasons. The first has to do with offsets or “pay-fors.” Some are controversial (e.g., reinstating the Superfund tax on petrochemical producers) and many are illusory—meaning CBO will not score them (see, for instance, “dynamic scoring”). If the bill produces a sizeable increase in the deficit, many Republicans could end up opposing it. On top of that, Republicans—many of whom are already irate over the recent leak of taxpayer files to ProPublica—won’t be particularly enthused by the prospect of paying for a bill by hiring more IRS enforcement agents to close the putative “tax gap.” Second, GOP members are strongly opposed to tying the bipartisan agreement and the next ($2 trillion? $4 trillion? $5 trillion?) budget reconciliation package together. Senate Minority Leader McConnell (R-KY) is now trying to pressure Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) to delink the two bills. While some Democrats may remain skeptical of the infrastructure agreement, it likely will need nearly every Democratic member’s support in the House and Senate. The political fault lines underneath the infrastructure package are clearly cracking. Most House Republicans opposed the Senate gang’s infrastructure push from the start. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) stated that Democratic leadership “killed any opportunity” for a deal with his conference. Pay close attention to the Republican members of the gang of 21 in the weeks ahead. Senators Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Jerry Moran (R-KS) have already publicly expressed concerns—with Graham venting outrage—over Biden’s linkage of infrastructure and reconciliation. What’s not entirely clear is where Senators Thom Tillis (R-NC), Mike Rounds (R-SD), Richard Burr (R-NC), Todd Young (R-IN) and others involved will come down as the process unfolds. Watch, too, progressives such as Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA), who said the bipartisan infrastructure bill, “simply isn’t enough.” And of course, the ubiquitous Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (D-NY), who is agitating for a $10 trillion reconciliation bill. The longer the infrastructure agreement remains in limbo, the more time there is for lawmakers to feel the heat from constituents, outside groups, and the media. Schumer and Pelosi want to pass the bipartisan infrastructure bill and the FY2022 budget resolution, with reconciliation instructions, out of the Senate in July. During August recess, House and Senate committees would then begin assembling the reconciliation package with the goal of holding votes before the end of September. The House would hold the bipartisan infrastructure bill at the desk until September, when it would be theoretically passed alongside the Democratic-only reconciliation bill. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) says he would support a reconciliation bill as high as $2 trillion assuming it's fully paid for, which of necessity likely means raising corporate and capital gains taxes, given the list of available offsets outside of tax hikes is woefully short. Surface Transportation – This week, the House will vote on H.R. 3694, “The Invest in America Act,” a $715 billion surface transportation reauthorization bill. Traditionally, this legislation is developed in coordination with the Senate, but as we have previously noted, this year the House and Senate are on different planets when it comes to this issue. The House bill has been loaded up with the priorities of Democratic members, and House Republicans are actively whipping their members to oppose it. If the bill passes the House, expect a long and contentious conference committee with the Senate. --- ### 06.22.2021 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/06-22-2021-washington-update/ - Published: 2021-06-22 - Updated: 2021-06-22 Infrastructure – Members of the Senate’s bipartisan working group are conferring with several Senate committees, including Commerce, Finance, Environment and Public Works, and Energy and Natural Resources, to develop more specifics on their infrastructure framework, especially on pay-fors. The White House has promised to propose alternatives to, among other ideas, indexing the gas tax to inflation and fees on electric vehicles. With 21 Senators now agreeing to a deal in principle, the likelihood of a potential infrastructure bill has increased. However, high hurdles remain. Senate progressives are saying “no deal” without significant spending on climate change and so-called “human” infrastructure. With 11 Republicans committed to the outline right now, Democrats can only lose one of their own. If a final agreement is secured with the White House, President Biden will have to sell it to keep Senate Democrats unified. Similarly, Republican members of the gang may have to produce 9 to 19 Republican votes to negate lost votes on the other side of the aisle. Don’t be surprised if those members make specific demands as the price for their support—demands that could surely upset an already delicate balance. Despite deadlines proffered by the White House, the seemingly endless logrolling and cajoling of other senators could extend well into July, not least because the Senate leaves for a two-week recess on Thursday. House Republicans have thus far been observing the Senate’s back-and-forth from the sidelines—and doing so with skepticism. Meanwhile, House progressive lawmakers see the bipartisan deal as a non-starter without guarantees of spending trillions more on a future reconciliation bill. As Speaker Pelosi recently stated, “we know that one bill is not going to do it for us.” On a separate track, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and the Senate Budget Committee continue to negotiate topline numbers for a FY2022 budget resolution that will include reconciliation instructions. Senate Budget Committee Chairman Bernie Sanders (I-VT) favors a $6 trillion spending package, with $2.5 trillion worth of pay-fors coming from the Senate Finance Committee, $185 billion from the Energy and Natural Resources Committee, and $500 billion from the Environment and Public Works Committee. That would put overall spending at $2 trillion more than what President Biden has proposed. Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA), a member of both the Senate Budget Committee and the bipartisan infrastructure gang, could be pivotal to forging a compromise. Every member of the Senate Budget Committee will need to support the budget resolution. Any delay in Warner’s support, or other Budget Committee members, could slow down Schumer’s timeline for reconciliation. House Budget Committee Chair John Yarmuth (D-KY) wants to vote on a budget resolution the week of July 12, and then have the full House advance the measure the week of July 19. China – House Republicans this week are focusing on China and COVID-19. They will release legislation holding China accountable for its dilatory response to the pandemic and lack of transparency about the Wuhan lab, now widely alleged to be the progenitor of the coronavirus. This morning, Minority Leader McCarthy sent a letter to House Republicans outlining eight pillars of the package, which includes declassifying information related to the origins of COVID-19, imposing economic sanctions and visa restrictions, and waiving Chinese sovereign immunity so that families of COVID-19 victims could file suit against the Chinese government. In addition, Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA) is announcing this week that “Big Tech and China” will be a new pillar of the Big Tech Accountability Platform, sponsored by Republicans on the House Energy and Commerce Committee. Under the new pillar, committee Republicans will push Big Tech companies to improve the transparency of American data going to China, strengthen the vetting of mobile applications, and address the sale of counterfeit goods coming from China. ESG Legislation – Last week, the House passed H.R. 1187, the Corporate Governance Improvement and Investor Protection Act, by a 215 to 214 vote. The bill would require public companies to disclose environmental, social and governance criteria. In what would normally be considered a routine matter for the current majority, Speaker Pelosi instead had to vote to break a tie after four Democrats broke ranks by voting ‘no’. With a razor-thin majority, the difficulty surrounding this vote—on a core issue for Democrats no less—doesn’t augur well for Pelosi and her lieutenants. House Republicans – Before the end of this work period, we expect House Republicans to roll out the members of their six policy task forces. As a reminder, these task forces will be developing legislative proposals that can be utilized if and when Republican votes are needed, or as a policy platform should Republicans regain the majority next Congress. The task forces will cover: Jobs/Economy; Big Tech Censorship; Energy/Climate/Conservation; Domestic Security; Health; and China. While no date has been announced for a steering committee meeting, we also expect Republicans to announce before the end of this work period which Member of Congress will be filling the vacant seat on the House Financial Services Committee. The seat was opened when Rep. Steve Stivers (R-OH) retired last month. Senate Floor this Week – Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) used Senate Rule 14 to bypass the Senate Rules Committee to force a floor action on the “For the People Act” this week. Leader Schumer will hold a procedural vote Tuesday on the bill. Senate Republicans are unanimously opposed to the bill, leaving only the question of whether any Democrats (e.g., Manchin) will oppose cloture on the motion to proceed. Leader Schumer also filed cloture on the following nominations: Christopher Fonzone to be General Counsel of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and Kiran Ahuja to be Director of the Office of Personnel Management. It remains to be seen when Senate Democrats will start the “motion-to- discharge” process for Rohit Chopra to be the director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Member attendance will be essential, as every Senate Democrat will need to be present and voting, along with the potential help of Vice President Harris to break any ties. Appropriations – House Democratic leadership is tentatively planning on holding floor votes on several minibus appropriations bills the last two weeks of July. In the lead up to that effort, the House Appropriations Committee has set the following sub-committee and full committee markup schedule: Thursday, June 24 - Subcommittee Markups: Financial Services and General Government; Legislative Branch Friday, June 25 - Subcommittee Markups: Agriculture, Rural Development, Food and Drug Administration, and Related Agencies; Military Construction, Veterans Affairs, and Related Agencies Monday, June 28 - Subcommittee Markups: Interior, Environment, and Related Agencies; State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs Tuesday, June 29 - Full Committee Markups: Subcommittee Allocations; Financial Services and General Government; Legislative Branch Wednesday, June 30 - Full Committee Markups: Agriculture, Rural Development, Food and Drug Administration, and Related Agencies; Military Construction, Veterans Affairs, and Related Agencies Subcommittee Markups: Defense; Homeland Security Thursday, July 1 - Full Committee Markups: Interior, Environment, and Related Agencies; State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs Monday, July 12 - Subcommittee Markups: Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies; Energy and Water Development, and Related Agencies; Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, and Related Agencies; Transportation, and Housing and Urban Development, and Related Agencies Tuesday, July 13 - Full Committee Markups: Defense; Homeland Security Thursday, July 15 - Full Committee Markups: Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies; Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, and Related Agencies Friday, July 16 - Full Committee Markups: Energy and Water Development, and Related Agencies; Transportation, and Housing and Urban Development, and Related Agencies --- ### 06.15.2021 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/06-15-2021-washington-update/ - Published: 2021-06-15 - Updated: 2021-06-15 Infrastructure – Last week, a bipartisan group of senators (Cassidy (R-LA), Collins (R-ME), Manchin (D-WV), Murkowski (R-AK), Portman (R-OH), Romney (R-UT), Shaheen (D-NH), Sinema (D-AZ), Tester (D-MT) and Warner (D-VA) announced an agreement on a nearly $1 trillion infrastructure blueprint with several potential pay-fors. Pay-fors under consideration include: repurposing unused COVID relief funds, creating a new infrastructure financing agency, promoting public-private partnerships, closing the tax gap, and imposing new user fees, including on electric vehicles. Also on the table: some degree of deficit spending. Importantly for Republicans, the proposal does not alter the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Senators on both sides of the aisle are reserving judgment until they learn more details. However, there are early signs that the package will face multiple obstacles. During talks with the White House, Senators Pat Toomey (R-PA) and Shelly Moore Capito (R-WV) had for weeks proposed repurposing COVID relief funds for infrastructure but got nowhere. Congressional progressives are already saying they will not vote for any bipartisan deal unless Senators Manchin, Sinema, and other Democrats commit to a follow-up reconciliation bill to address human infrastructure needs and “the climate crisis.” Congressman Ro Khanna (D-CA) tweeted last week that, “An infrastructure bill that doesn’t prioritize the climate crisis will not pass the House. Period.” In the same vein, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said, “I don’t know how we can possibly sell it to our caucus unless we know there is more to come.” As we have written before, many Republicans--if not the entire House Republican Conference--see no upside to voting for a $1 trillion infrastructure bill. By their lights, passing a “bricks and mortar” bill is the stepping-stone to the Democrats’ holy grail: reconciliation. This is not an unreasonable line of thinking. By passing a highway bill with modest climate change provisions—that is, by making them current law—Democrats could then leverage significant increases in climate programs under reconciliation. That becomes exceedingly more difficult if Democrats move to reconciliation without a regular-order infrastructure predicate. This week, the Senate Commerce Committee will mark up the safety and rail portions of the Senate surface transportation reauthorization, getting the upper chamber one step closer to floor debate. House Majority Leader Hoyer (D-MD) announced that during the week of June 28th, the House will vote on H.R. 3684, the “INVEST in America Act,” which the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee passed, on mostly partisan lines, last week. We remain skeptical that a bicameral agreement on surface transportation can be reached before the September 30 deadline given the significant differences between the House and Senate bills, as well as the need to develop pay-fors acceptable to both bodies. As noted earlier, Republicans also are skeptical of including even modest climate or environmental policies in a surface transportation bill, as it would open the possibility that such programs could be greatly expanded within a reconciliation vehicle. Despite the challenges, some on Capitol Hill are hoping that a conference committee could be convened in August or September should both chambers clear their legislation before the August recess. Inflation – You may have already noticed, but prices for goods and services are on the rise and Republicans want to politically capitalize on it for the 2022 elections. Last week, the Labor Department announced its consumer price index surged 5% year-over-year in May, the largest increase since August 2008 when oil was $140 a barrel. That headline caught our attention because many of us were around for the [2008 Republican ‘takeover’ of the House floor during August recess to protest Democratic inaction on high gas prices](https://url.emailprotection.link/?b06gfaiWgA8QpTPupKmjtzxZ8RxxGV7wAilS37WevuM2DhNIeE9b2FGeCqCNqGBpelpk2sOlcJs7ACokgtO4BAgDzO8VePMbYYoA212ndlxC4sHfnD80kCXt5WN1AjYPh). Reports of high lumber prices have been getting headlines outside of the Beltway for months, but now food and energy prices have increased at the highest rates since 1992. Appliances, used cars, transportation costs are all up more than 10% from this time last year. Part of the blame may be COVID-related supply shortages and the Federal Reserve’s current accommodative monetary policies, but no matter: Republicans are solely blaming massive spending coming from the nearly $2 trillion stimulus bill in March. This is an important political consideration to think about as discussions on infrastructure continue. While a few Senate Republicans may be comfortable with almost $1 trillion in new infrastructure spending, the majority of the Senate and House Republican conferences may not be. If Congressional Democrats use the new reconciliation package to pass significant parts of President Biden’s American Jobs Plan and American Families Plan, expect Republicans to continue blaming Democrats for the real-world consequences of inflation. House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) previewed this message in [a letter to House Republicans released last night](https://www.republicanleader.gov/our-country-in-crisis/), saying “This inflation is a tax on Americans and is directly related to the Democrats’ reckless policies.” This could also have an impact on forthcoming negotiations on appropriations bills. House Democrats introduced a deeming resolution that provides a $1.5 trillion limit on discretionary appropriations for fiscal year 2022, which helps the House Appropriations Committee begin drafting their bills. With the Budget Control Act expiring, it could be very difficult for a bipartisan and bicameral agreement on topline spending this summer and fall. Congressional Review Act – House Democratic leadership is currently planning to bring three CRA bills to the floor next week in an effort to rollback Trump Administration policies. We expect strong opposition from House Republicans to the measures, which include: - SJ Res 13 - Equal Employment Opportunity Commission CRA - SJ Res 14 - Methane CRA - SJ Res 15 - True Lender CRA Senate Floor This Week – The Senate will consider the nominations of Ketanji Brown Jackson to be United States Circuit Judge for the District of Columbia Circuit and Lina Khan, of New York, to be a Federal Trade Commissioner. Many in the financial services sector are following Ms. Khan’s nomination closely. Once she is sworn in at the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), current FTC commissioner Rohit Chopra would be able to receive a Senate floor vote to take over as the Director at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. --- ### 6.9.2021 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/6-9-2021-washington-update/ - Published: 2021-06-09 - Updated: 2021-06-09 Infrastructure – Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has set an ambitious goal of moving a major infrastructure bill through the Senate by July. To meet that timeline, the next several weeks could see the development of a budget resolution with instructions to committees to begin drafting the reconciliation package. Earlier this year, it took just 39 days from the time the budget resolution text was announced until the “American Rescue Plan Act” was signed into law. However, that was a short period of Democratic unity, which does not exist today. Don’t be surprised if members begin calling for changes to the summer recess schedule, particularly to accommodate a House-Senate conference that could set up final passage in the fall. It would be politically awkward for Congressional leadership to start and then pause the reconciliation process for August recess. President Biden and Sen. Shelly Moore Capito (R-WV) ended their infrastructure talks. Attention now turns to the bipartisan “gang” of senators that includes Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA), Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), and Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT). Rumors abound about what the group is considering, including paying for new infrastructure spending with a carbon tax. Notwithstanding these and similar House efforts (see the talks spurred by the House “Problem Solvers” Caucus), we still think it’s likely that all the sound and fury over infrastructure eventually gets channeled into reconciliation. But note that this will be no easy exercise for Democrats, given the extremely tight margins in both chambers. Following the unanimous markup of the “Surface Transportation Reauthorization Act” (STRA) in the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, the Senate Finance, Senate Commerce, and Senate Banking Committees will move their respective pieces of highway reauthorization legislation. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is conferring with Ranking Member Pat Toomey (R-PA) on the transit piece of the legislation, however many issues need to be resolved, including topline spending levels. The Senate Commerce Committee may hold a markup on their provisions as early as next week. The key to any package advancing to the Senate floor is the Senate Finance Committee’s agreement on “pay-fors,” which the committee discussed during their highway bill hearing on May 18. It’s important to note that options here are limited, as the 2015 FAST Act, in rather slapdash fashion, exhausted the list of one-time pay-fors, such as raiding various Federal Reserve funds for private banks. Given bipartisan opposition to raising the gas tax, and Republicans’ outright rejection of tax increases, the committee will have to get creative in finding common ground. The House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee today will mark up the “INVEST in America Act.” Unlike the Senate, this is expected to be a partisan exercise. The House bill also includes earmarks, which will complicate any future discussions in the Senate, which refused to include them in their package. This fact will no doubt complicate a House-Senate conference, assuming they even get to that point before the highway program expires on October 1. Filibuster Reform – Following a month of bipartisan infrastructure talks and processing the U.S. Innovation and Competition Act (USICA), Schumer is setting up a legislative schedule this work period that will surely test the political limits within the Democratic caucus surrounding the filibuster rule. Senate Democrats started that process this week by attempting to advance H.R. 7, the Paycheck Fairness Act, which Republicans blocked on a 49-50 vote. Schumer may also force votes on gun safety and equality legislation later this work period and could force another vote on the January 6th Commission. This will all lead up to the week of June 21, when the Senate will consider S.1, the “For the People Act.” Senate Republicans will unanimously oppose the bill, and Sen. Manchin will join them. Assuming this happens, debate about ending or revising the filibuster will intensify (watch in particular for the reform proposal that preserves the filibuster for most forms of legislation, but allows a special carve-out for voting and election reform bills). Focus on Senators Manchin and Sinema has thus far dominated the filibuster drama, but it’s possible there are several other Democrats who have reservations about filibuster reform. --- ### 05.25.21 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/05-25-21-washington-update/ - Published: 2021-05-25 - Updated: 2021-05-25 Infrastructure – Senate Republicans provided more specifics last week on their $589 billion infrastructure package, but to no end. The White House’s $1.7 trillion counterproposal, released last Friday, made clear that no deal is in sight. Beyond the disagreement over the top-line number, the White House counteroffer dismissed using new user fees to pay for the bill, which Republicans favor. The White House is insistent that corporate tax increases should pay for infrastructure investments. Note, the corporate tax rate, which Democrats want to use to help pay for infrastructure, is also caught up in international negotiations at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Treasury Secretary Yellen is trying to find common ground on a Global Minimum Tax and by extension a resolution to taxes on digital services. This gets to the many challenges ahead. Tax increases are the red line that Republicans simply won’t cross. By the same token, House Democrats want to include a laundry list of spending and policy priorities that strain the conceptual limits of what constitutes infrastructure. Adding fuel to the fire, House Republicans, not without justification, smell blood in next year’s midterm elections. Cutting deals with Democrats on President Biden’s top priorities is not their recipe for regaining the majority. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) likely feels the same way, which is why it’s unlikely 10 GOP senators will break ranks. As a result, this is likely the last week of bipartisan talks on infrastructure given the President’s Memorial Day deadline. Senators head home at the end of the week. The last, best hope for a bipartisan deal could hinge on whether President Biden reengages personally, with fewer staff and cabinet officials involved. But even that, for all the foregoing reasons, is likely a bridge too far. Once bipartisan talks end completely, the White House will turn attention to Senators Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), Joe Manchin (D-WV), Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), Maggie Hassan (D-NH), Mark Warner (D-VA), Chris Coons (D-DE), and Tom Carper (D-DE)—with the goal of solidifying 50 votes for a potential reconciliation bill. Democrats will need to quickly start the development of their budget resolution and reconciliation instructions in order to get a partisan reconciliation bill through this summer. The Senate Finance Committee has scheduled a markup this Wednesday that attempts to promote more clean energy development which is viewed by many as a start of the Democrat's infrastructure push. House Democrats are eager to begin drafting reconciliation outlines. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) hinted that House committees may start drafting language this week, “so that they can be ready to move ahead on — in whatever way we decide.” On a separate track, Senate Environment and Public Works Committee Chairman Tom Carper (D-DE) and Ranking Member Shelly Moore Capito (R-WV) announced an agreement on a $303.5 billion multi-year “[Surface Transportation Reauthorization Act](https://url.emailprotection.link/?boWdmqgV9Rt5TiMCqg5t8bGNZlDDVR0hX1kiZqm88zKYDIKHxKMi8BORrzwvU18A3PrFBptGb-PK3ont2rllz41RzoxKwxGMmP93YXFgCzgPyTvoz0sw7BEOwy0pco7Z8YR_uTfiskN9ym6AwPuibIFDZi3JlPMMnFBz_muSPS0s~),” that will be marked up on Wednesday. House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee Chairman Peter DeFazio (D-OR) canceled plans this week to mark up his yet-to-be-released surface transportation bill. The House Democratic proposal is now expected to be marked up in late June. T&I Ranking Member Sam Graves (R-MO) introduced his own competing reauthorization bill, the “[Surface Transportation Advanced through Reform, Technology & Efficient Review (STARTER) Act](https://url.emailprotection.link/?b59ZhwsKODqe10__m0vSsyGOvmILi_MW47R6SRPHl5_8ZgK_Enf6EP0z3xDUDJPBmZA7QwBXn8MEpVO9t7lVR-DnR4wDgV4MuX25t1nhp19rNslSmGDNZ1A_2wfNXMK1Lf2vSPBP8Jk-KuAHewVA1080wPKE7j3GtmAAh2XQKx3w~).” For those who think highway reauthorization is the likely bipartisan alternative to an uber-infrastructure bill, consider that the House and Senate are on different planets. A conference committee, which will have to deal with, among other things, earmarks, will be contentious, and therefore could take months. Not to mention the fact that, in addition to EPW, other Senate committees with jurisdiction over highways—Commerce, Banking, and Finance—have yet to markup their respective bills. In short, having a highway bill signed into law by September 30, the deadline for funding the federal highway program, appears to be a tall order. Which means an extension, of possibly a year or more, is very much in the cards. China – This week, the Senate will continue debating amendments to the “United States Innovation and Competition Act” (formerly the “Endless Frontier Act”). Hundreds of amendments have been filed and cloakroom staff for Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Minority Leader McConnell continue to negotiate. While the vote was 86 to 11 to begin debate on the legislation, many Senate Republicans may vote against the final package. These Republicans have a variety of concerns, including provisions related to prevailing wages, funding allocations and various disagreements on trade policies. Appropriations – The White House Office of Management and Budget is expected to release its full fiscal year 2022 budget on Friday. The announcement will not only trigger work on a potential reconciliation bill, but also mark the start of the regular appropriations process. Absent a budget resolution, House members could agree to “deem” top-line defense and non-defense discretionary spending figures to allow appropriators to start drafting bills. Senators have the following Appropriations Subcommittee deadlines to submit their funding requests: Agriculture June 17 Commerce Justice Science June 18 Defense July 9 Energy and Water June 16 Financial Services and General Government June 22 Homeland Security June 28 Interior and Environment June 24 Labor, Health and Human Services, Education July 8 Legislative Branch June 15 Military Construction and Veterans Affairs June 21 State, Foreign Operations June 29 Transportation, Housing and Urban Development June 23 In the House subcommittee and full committee markups are expected on the following dates: Subcommittee Markups: June 24, June 25, June 28, June 30, July 12 Full Committee Markups: June 29, June 30, July 1, July 13, July 15, July 16 Nominations – In addition to debating the China package, the Senate will consider the nominations of Chiquita Brooks-LaSure to be Administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) and Kristen Clarke to be an Assistant Attorney General at the Department of Justice. --- ### Washington Update 05.18.21 - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/washington-update-05-18-21/ - Published: 2021-05-18 - Updated: 2021-05-18 Infrastructure –Senate Republicans will offer a revised infrastructure proposal to President Biden this week. Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) said the new plan will have “more definition, but maybe some different numbers too.” As always, a central issue is how to pay for it. Some Republicans favor increasing user fees, while others are interested in public-private partnerships, promoting government bonds, and establishing a new infrastructure financing authority. Democrats have pounced on user fees, casting them as a regressive tax—not to mention President Biden’s pledge not to raise taxes on taxpayers making more than $400,000 a year. Even so, Senate Republicans may be willing to go as high as $800 billion, higher than their initial $589 billion proposal but still far less than President Biden’s $2 trillion. But many more Republicans are skeptical of cutting a bipartisan infrastructure agreement only to have Democrats follow with even more government spending in the “American Families Plan” passed via reconciliation. What’s more, signs of incipient inflation loom over this debate—a fact that Republicans tie in no small part to Washington’s hyper-spending spigot. Add to this volatile mix a surface transportation bill, soon to be introduced, by House Transportation & Infrastructure Chair Peter DeFazio (D-OR). The final text is expected to be similar to H.R. 2 from last Congress. If that’s the case, expect a similar level of support from House Republicans: next to none. If he is unable to complete work on it this work period, committee consideration will likely occur in early June. House Democrats still hope to have a comprehensive infrastructure bill—which to a Republican eye will surely include provisions that cannot reasonably be defined as such—on the House floor before the July district work period. China – This week, the Senate will consider S. 1260, the “Endless Frontier Act” which passed the Senate Commerce Committee last week by a vote of 24 to 4 (with “no” votes from Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT), Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI), Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) and Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-WY)). We expect an open amendment process on the floor, with additional bipartisan provisions from the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee, and Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee potentially coming up for votes. There continues to be discussion, but no resolution, on whether a China trade-related package from the Senate Finance Committee will be included. There is also an expectation that $50 billion will be deemed “emergency spending” and added to the package to address the current semiconductor chip shortage. Due to the considerable number of amendments expected to be filed, consideration of the bill could stretch into next week. While subject to the 60-vote threshold to advance, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Sen. Todd Young (R-IN) are hoping a significant bipartisan vote will push the House to act in kind. Budget-Appropriations Timelines – The White House Office of Management and Budget is expected to unveil its full fiscal year 2022 budget on May 27 and will include proposals for mandatory spending and revenue proposals. The US Treasury Department also plans to release its green book the final week of May, which should shed more light on the Administration’s tax proposals. One consequence of the Administration’s dilatory budget submission is a delayed budget and appropriations process on the Hill. The Senate is tackling infrastructure and China policy and hoping the House will follow suit, but the House may be focused on advancing spending bills by the time the Senate completes its work. January 6th Commission – On Wednesday, the House is expected to debate and vote on two pieces of legislation related to the events of January 6th: - H.R. 3233, the “National Commission to Investigate the January 6 Attack on the United States Capitol Complex Act” (Rep. Thomspon--MS); and - H.R. 3237, the “Emergency Security Supplemental to Respond to January 6th Appropriations Act” (Rep. DeLauro--CT) The Commission will be composed of ten members selected by the Speaker of the House, House Minority Leader, Senate Majority Leader and Senate Minority Leader, respectively, and will issue a final report no later than December 31, 2021. This is likely to be a highly charged and emotional investigation, with those who were present that day, including members and senators, having to relive what happened. --- ### Washington Update 5.11.21 - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/washington-update-5-11-21/ - Published: 2021-05-11 - Updated: 2021-05-11 Infrastructure – Work continues this week on the development of a multi-year surface transportation bill in the Senate Environment and Public Works and House Transportation and Infrastructure Committees. The goal is to produce draft legislation by the end of the month, though this timing could slip into June. The bipartisan “America’s Transportation Infrastructure Act” from the 116th Congress continues to be the basis of negotiations between EPW Chairman Tom Carper (D-DE) and Ranking Member Shelly Moore Capito (R-WV). Without the support of Senators Joe Manchin (D-WV) or Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), Democrats will not have the votes to pass their infrastructure package through reconciliation. Without an assured 51 votes, President Biden may be forced to continue his dialogue with Republicans. To that end, the President is expected to resume talks this week with the Senate Republicans who drafted their conference’s infrastructure proposal. This includes Senators Capito, Crapo (R-ID), Wicker (R-MS), Barrasso (R-WY), Blunt (R-MO), and Toomey (R-PA). At this point, the central debate is over how to define “infrastructure.” For their part, Republicans focus on roads, highways, bridges, broadband and airport facilities. Resolving this question—assuming it’s resolvable—could help narrow the gap between the Senate Republicans' $568 proposal and President Biden’s $2.3 trillion package. Senate Republicans would like to see a counterproposal from President Biden, which would provide them with some reassurance that negotiations are genuine. Big Four Meeting -- On Wednesday, President Biden will meet with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY). Behind the scenes, Leaders McConnell and McCarthy continue to coordinate on strategy. Following the lackluster April jobs report, Republican leaders are raising concerns about federal transfer payments disincentivizing workers to return to work, especially the disproportionate number of women and minorities who have withdrawn from the labor force. House Republicans – With a lack of floor activity, expect House Republicans to focus on creating media opportunities surrounding key issues such as the economy, jobs, and supporting law enforcement. House Republicans also are discussing how to put House Democrats on the record regarding potential court-packing plans for the Supreme Court. At the Republican retreat in Florida, Leader McCarthy announced the leadership for the Conference’s new policy task forces. These task forces have begun the process of putting together very substantive legislative proposals. The purpose of these efforts is two-fold: 1) Ensure House Republicans are prepared with substantive policies if/when they get to the negotiating table on policies this year; and 2) Prepare a longer-term policy agenda should Republicans regain the majority next Congress. We are advising clients to engage with these groups: - Jobs and the Economy, chaired by Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-NC); - Big Tech Censorship, chaired by Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA); - Future of American Freedoms, chaired by Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH); - Energy, Climate and Conservation, chaired by Rep. Garret Graves (R-LA); - American Security, chaired by Rep. John Katko (R-NY); - Healthy Future, chaired by Reps. Devin Nunes (R-CA) and Brett Guthrie (R-KY); - China, chaired by Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX). The media narrative this week will be focused on Wednesday’s House Republican Conference meeting during which members will vote on a resolution calling for the removal of Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) as Conference Chair. There appears to be sufficient support for Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) to take over the role. House Republicans will be glad to have this saga behind them. China Package – The Senate Commerce Committee will resume their markup of the “Endless Frontier Act” on Wednesday. Last week, efforts were made to educate committee members and garner more support for the legislation, as well as negotiate amendments for potential inclusion during the markup. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden (D-OR) and Ranking Member Crapo (R-ID) are nearing completion of their portion of the package that addresses forced labor and other trade practices. Leader Schumer intends to bring the complete China package to the Senate floor as soon as possible, and consideration could stretch more than a week due to the sheer number of amendments expected to be filed. So far this has been a Senate-only exercise without House lawmakers being a part of the process. Rep. McMorris Rodgers (R-WA), Ranking Member of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, has expressed skepticism of the Senate’s approach, saying, that “creating new, duplicative multi-billion-dollar programs is not the answer.” Schumer and Sen. Todd Young (R-IN) are focused on garnering the largest bipartisan vote possible in the Senate and then deal with the House later. Energy – On Wednesday, the House Financial Services Committee will markup H.R. 2570, the “Climate Risk Disclosure Act.” The bill would require the Securities and Exchange Commission to require all public companies to disclose annually their investments and risks related to various climate change scenarios. Companion legislation was introduced in the Senate by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA). While the legislation is unlikely to garner sufficient support in the Senate, energy and financial services companies are eyeing the bill closely given actions already underway at Treasury and the SEC. Last month, Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen [told the Institute of International Finance](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0139), “It will be important to build on existing work to improve climate-related financial risk disclosure.” Budget / Appropriations / NDAA – The full FY 2022 budget request from President Biden and the Office of Management and Budget will likely be made public during this work period. The release of the budget will help facilitate multiple congressional work streams which have thus far been delayed. House Budget Chairman John Yarmuth (D-KY) and Senate Budget Committee Chairman Bernie Sanders (I-VT) could begin laying the groundwork for an FY 2022 budget resolution, which would outline top-line spending levels as well as potentially provide new reconciliation instructions to House and Senate committees. Should an FY 2022 budget resolution be brought to the Senate floor this summer, another politically charged ‘vote-a-rama’ will take place. As a result of the delayed release of the President’s budget, work on the National Defense Authorization Act has also been shelved. The Senate Armed Services Committee will not mark up their version of the NDAA until July, which creates a tight timeline to secure a bicameral agreement by the end of the year. Upon release of the President’s budget, House and Senate appropriators will begin developing appropriations bills at the subcommittee level, with the House attempting to have their bills ready for the floor as soon as July, an ambitious target. Senate Floor This Week – The Senate will consider the following nominations this week: - Andrea Joan Palm, of Wisconsin, to be Deputy Secretary of Health and Human Services. - Cynthia Minette Marten, of California, to be Deputy Secretary of Education. --- ### Washington Update 4.27.21 - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/washington-update-4-27-21/ - Published: 2021-04-27 - Updated: 2021-04-27 House Republican Conference – At the House Republican Conference retreat yesterday morning, Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) rolled out the leadership of the GOP’s new policy task forces. They are: - Jobs/Economy – Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-NC) - Big Tech Censorship – Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA) - Energy/Climate/Conservation – Rep. Garrett Graves (R-LA) - Domestic Security – Rep. John Katko (R-NY) - Health – Rep. Brett Guthrie (R-KY) and Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA) - China – Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX) - American Freedoms - Jim Jordan (R-OH) These task forces demonstrate Leader McCarthy’s effort to develop a substantive policy agenda. To this end, he is relying on ranking members to have legislative proposals drafted, scored, and ready for potential floor votes. These proposals can then be broached if and when Republican votes are needed or used as a policy platform should Republicans regain the majority next Congress. The current breakdown in the House is 218 Democrats to 212 Republicans. Conventional wisdom holds that some moderate Republican votes may be ‘up for grabs’ to help Democratic leadership pass key bills in the House. But at the moment, no House Republican appears ready or willing to help Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) pass any substantive legislation. Bipartisan bills will likely only pass the House after consultation with Republican leadership. House Republicans also welcomed the US Census Bureau's announcement yesterday that Texas will gain two congressional seats along with Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon each gaining one seat. California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia will all lose congressional seats ahead of the 2022 midterm elections. Senate Bipartisanship – While the media has spent this work period focused on competing infrastructure proposals, the Senate has been making bipartisan progress on several other issues. The prospects for a bipartisan, comprehensive China response package continue to improve. Following last week’s markup of S. 1169, the Strategic Competition Act, in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, the focus shifts to the Senate Commerce Committee this Wednesday, when it will mark up S.1260, the Endless Frontier Act. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Sen. Todd Young (R-IN) garnered 6 Democratic and 6 Republican co-sponsors for the bill’s introduction. With other committees having completed negotiations on their portions of the China package, Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden (D-OR) and Ranking Member Mike Crapo (R-ID) continue to work in good faith on counterfeit goods, Chinese media censorship, forced labor, and supply chains. Other trade policies related to China could come into play as well. It’s not clear yet whether the committee will hold a markup of any potential agreement. Leader Schumer wants to have the final China package on the Senate floor by the next work period, and potentially as soon as the week of May 10th. Bipartisanship has extended beyond committee work to the Senate floor. Following negotiations and consideration of a handful of amendments S. 937, the COVID-19 Hate Crimes Act, passed by a vote of 94 to 1. This week the Senate is expected to proceed to S.914, the Drinking Water and Wastewater Infrastructure Act, which was unanimously advanced by the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee. While disagreements on big-ticket legislation may get the most attention, these are clear indications that the Senate is capable of legislating even under a 50-50 split. Senate Republican Conference – The Senate Republican Conference last week elected to keep their current ban on earmarks and adopted Sen. Rick Scott’s (R-FL) proposal stating that any future increase in the debt ceiling should be accompanied by an equal amount of spending cuts or major budget reforms. While non-binding, the decisions demonstrate that Senate Republicans are returning to traditional pre-Trump fiscal conservativism. The House Republican Conference lifted its ban on earmarks in March. Senate Floor This Week – Leader Schumer announced that the Senate will consider S. J. Res. 14, which is a resolution under the Congressional Review Act to eliminate the Trump administration’s methane-emissions rule (note: the CRA covers the so-called methane “policy rule,” not the “technical rule”). A bipartisan vote in support of the CRA is expected. The Leader also filed cloture on the following nominations: - Jason Scott Miller to be Deputy Director for Management, Office of Management and Budget - Janet Garvin McCabe to be Deputy Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency - Colin Hackett Kahl to be Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Administration – President Biden will mark his 100th day in office this Friday, and will make an address to a Joint Session of Congress on Wednesday evening. Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) will be delivering the Republican response. Before his address, President Biden is expected to unveil his $1.8 trillion “American Family Plan,” which will focus on education, childcare, family leave, and social well-being. It remains to be seen whether the White House will also push for health care reforms in the package. The proposal will be paid for by changes in individual tax policies, including tax increases on capital gains, estates, and several other wealth taxes. --- ### Washington Update 04.19.21 - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/washington-update-04-19-21/ - Published: 2021-04-19 - Updated: 2021-04-19 House Republicans – The House Republican Conference convenes next Sunday through Tuesday in Orlando, Florida for its members’ retreat. In a continuing effort to influence legislation in the narrowly controlled House, members will announce several new policy task forces, covering Health, Economy, Big Tech, Domestic Security, and Freedom and Fairness. They will be modeled after last year’s China Task Force, which got rave reviews from House GOP members and leadership for crafting substantive policies and reports. Today’s retirement announcement by Rep. Steve Stivers (R-OH), effective May 16th, will leave open a highly sought position on the House Committee on Financial Services. Stivers’ possible replacement includes Rep. Pete Sessions (R-TX), Rep. Ralph Norman (R-NC), Rep. Daniel Meuser (R-PA), and Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R-NY). House Democrats did not expand the committee’s membership ratio, thereby depriving some senior Republicans of a coveted spot on the committee. Because of this, we would expect this open slot to be awarded to a more senior House member. Senate Floor– The Senate hopes to complete consideration of the COVID-19 Hate Crimes Act this week and send it to the House. After that, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) says he wants the Senate to take up S. 914, the “Drinking Water and Wastewater Infrastructure Act,” which was approved unanimously by the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee last month. The bill would reauthorize the Drinking Water State Revolving Fund (DWSRF) and provide resources to small and disadvantaged communities. The Senate is also expected to consider the following nominations this week: - Lisa O. Monaco to be Deputy Attorney General - Gary Gensler to be a Member and Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a term expiring June 5, 2026. Infrastructure – Senate Republicans will continue advocating for a bipartisan infrastructure package that focuses exclusively on core infrastructure priorities such as roads, highways, bridges, water, wastewater, airport modernization, and broadband initiatives. Environment and Public Works Committee Ranking Member Shelly Moore Capito (R-WV) continues to lead the negotiation efforts for the conference on a traditional surface transportation reauthorization bill. Senate Republicans are coalescing around a package with a $600 to $800 billion price tag, with transportation-related pay-fors instead of raising taxes. Senators Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) and Joe Manchin (R-WV) will be important arbiters of a compromise package. If, as expected, Democrats resort to using reconciliation to pass a final bill, Sinema and Manchin may be the ultimate deciders. The centrist group of 20 Senators who previously tried to broker COVID relief measures continues to hold discussions, including with leaders of the House Problem Solvers Caucus, on their own priorities for an infrastructure package. At this point, these so-called “gangs” have little to show for their efforts. Energy – House Republicans will spend the first part of this week focusing on their climate change and conservation policy agenda. They will highlight bills and policies that harness the power of technology and innovation, rather than mandates and taxes, to address climate change. The rollout will feature efforts to expand energy infrastructure, promote precision agriculture, and encourage development of critical minerals and zero-emissions power sources, such as advanced nuclear. The effort is viewed as a ‘prebuttal’ to President Biden’s virtual Climate Leaders’ Summit taking place later this week. Senate Conference Rules/Earmarks – On Wednesday, Senate Republicans will vote on their conference rules. The major topic of debate will be whether to reinstate earmarking. Proponents of earmarks are a mix of senior Republican senators, appropriators, and younger members who were not in the Senate when the earmark ban was instituted. They argue that without Republican participation in directing federal funding, Democrats will simply hand over more federal funds to blue states. Opposition to earmarks will be led by Senators Ted Cruz (R-TX), Josh Hawley (R-MO), Pat Toomey (R-PA), and Rick Scott (R-FL). Given that the House GOP has already voted to permit earmarking, it’s conceivable that, in the upcoming appropriations process, many Senate Republicans make earmark requests while others object. Senate Republicans will also consider a proposal from Sen. Rick Scott that any increase in the debt ceiling must be accompanied by equal cuts in federal spending. This debate could be a window into how much traditional fiscal conservative policies still resonate with members. Calls for “Cut, Cap, and Balance” dominated Republican politics while President Obama was in office. China – The Senate Foreign Relations Committee will markup the bipartisan Strategic Competition Act on Wednesday, while Majority Leader Schumer and Sen. Todd Young (R-IN) hope to unveil their “Endless Frontier” legislation this week following the Senate Commerce Committee’s hearing on the subject last week. Other committees continue to work on their portions of the package such as the Senate Finance Committee, which is discussing supply chain and forced labor provisions. Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R-FL) “Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act” now has 44 bipartisan co-sponsors. Consideration of a comprehensive China response package could slip until the May work period. --- ### 04.14.2021 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/04-14-2021-washington-update/ - Published: 2021-04-14 - Updated: 2021-04-14 Senate Floor -- The Senate returned from recess this week and Democratic leaders are looking to move forward on several fronts in the next three weeks. There is a strong desire to put the Senate on record regarding H.R. 1, the For the People Act, gun control, and immigration reform—and as a means of testing the political limits of the Senate filibuster. On the floor, the Senate will consider the following nominations in this order: - Polly Ellen Trottenberg to be Deputy Secretary of Transportation - Wendy Ruth Sherman to be Deputy Secretary of State - Gary Gensler to be a Member and Chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission - Brenda Mallory to be a Member and Chair of the Council on Environmental Quality In addition, we expect a potential procedural test vote on Sen. Mazie Hirono’s (D-HI) legislation, the “COVID-19 Hate Crimes Act,” which aims to give the U.S. Department of Justice and local law enforcement more resources to combat hate crimes. House Floor – The House returned yesterday. This week, the House will take up the “Paycheck Fairness Act,” which passed last Congress, as well as the “Workplace Violence Prevention for Health Care and Social Service Workers Act.” In the weeks ahead, Democratic leaders have said the House will focus on multiple pieces of legislation pertaining to their justice and civil rights agenda. For their part, Republican House leaders are returning to Washington bolstered by the news that House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) raised $27.1 million in the first quarter of the year. The amount is the largest ever raised in a quarter by a Republican representative. That number is further evidence that while some traditional GOP allies may be leery of House Republicans, Republican voters remain very supportive of the Conference. Infrastructure/Reconciliation – Congress has commenced efforts to advance President Biden’s American Jobs Plan in the weeks ahead. With the [President’s fiscal year 2022 budget outline request](https://url.emailprotection.link/?bRxosZwjTT6m1tQn8Zv_b0j8bsio_M5GNqKcuMaTBMUSCWQRt3i-AINgjrIir3kEcdUvUg8FKWMHhATirdOmzaY6c9W_TT5p2HMuhQIFvlTtYnNc07ScqfDqPR_BVT52c7enpUqxAnZz9nmhVi948PoW2EUbNkix1WisYOw1Xak8~) released last week, Democratic leaders have what they need to craft a new comprehensive stimulus package as well as the annual appropriations bills. President Biden met yesterday with transportation-focused Republican and Democratic members of Congress to discuss his $2.25 trillion plan. While there is agreement that traditional infrastructure (e.g., road, bridges, highways, ports) needs to be addressed, tax policy will continue to be a major focus. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) recently said he does not support raising the corporate tax rate to 28%, and that a 25% rate is more appropriate. On the House side, tight voting margins could give Republicans more influence than usual on the direction of a final package. Several House members have already started to lay down their own policy markers and we expect more will do so in the weeks ahead. Senate Republicans remain adamant that the President’s infrastructure proposal must be smaller, more focused, and devoid of tax increases. For them, the 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act remains inviolable, and therefore other “pay-fors” must be incorporated as a necessary, but not a sufficient, condition for their support. While international tax policies have drawn the most attention so far, expect an expanded focus on energy and individual tax policies this month. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden (D-OR) is expected to renew his legislative efforts to promote alternative energy production. In addition, President Biden is expected to provide details about his “American Families Plan,” which is expected to include consequential changes to individual tax policies. The House and Senate Appropriations Committees will start their annual review hearings of the President's budget request this month, but the real work will be reaching an agreement on top-line spending and sub-committee allocations. Also, expect an even greater fight this year on potential policy riders during the appropriations process. Senators who have been unable to include their priorities in reconciliation due to the Byrd Rule may turn their attention to must-pass legislation to achieve their goals. China - Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is seeking to advance comprehensive legislation that would address U.S. competitiveness with China. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee will markup the [Strategic Competition Act of 2021](https://url.emailprotection.link/?bgnkgcmNaMkNTHMezEWIY0W6-W2HHvD4pfTLN3u3HiRcqf1lGiIQE6FpA2G0HPnnuY5al47CmJn_4WeYC70Mf2Lwwu8qyGXhccCpbBZ4KDAd0wJbwozCriOiLpmQJdFKBAgDSCyNSruKfMMTI2jbNf7rzjBng32S3XLYJlLCLn2A~), a bill sponsored by Chairman Bob Menendez (D-NJ) and Ranking Member Jim Risch (R-ID), that would promote human rights, confront China’s economic aggression, and support U.S. science, cyber, and technology development. Leader Schumer and Sen. Todd Young (R-IN) continue to work on the “Endless Frontier Act” in the Senate Commerce Committee, which will hold a [hearing](https://url.emailprotection.link/?bAXP8Omxf9FyPQER1o_ipe3-D-h3AZzHNcGGvftPlGfraiuKcZ8yWhUPLA-KI3qyXvP9vlSgYE5e9EYlEFJRZjoprelegBf2qpHKnerOzmNUHxB0lPcKkNsQUWUbyi6eq) on the proposal this Wednesday. While talks continue, Sen. Young is adamant that any China legislation must pass through regular order, and not as part of an infrastructure or tax reconciliation measure that Republicans will surely oppose. Leaders of the Senate Finance Committee continue to work on their portion of the China package, including their oversight of forced labor issues in China and supply chain policies. At the same time, efforts are underway on how to best pay for this package. In the House, Leader McCarthy intends to keep a group working on China policy, similar to what House Republicans had last Congress with the China Task Force. Republicans are likely to continue pushing for specific legislative priorities that were included in the Task Force’s report. Many of these policies enjoy bipartisan support and could be candidates for inclusion in future legislation. Surface Transportation Bill Reauthorization - The Senate Environment and Public Works, Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, and Senate Commerce Committees will be working to develop their portions of the surface transportation authorization bill. EPW will hold a [hearing](https://url.emailprotection.link/?bXAI4uZYb4nFXGZY581r2ZY9V7Wccmf0bwrWmf55T5aPXNwrjbqX761tr8Dyc-kiM_cKtuY9XFu94F4jpzSgGe-rMySzrvyp_TSvGPmxo9ED9ZHarNU5KzCLnNYwDwk4hm-RZ90lSMmxHBZBIAQHHg52IKqGknB6VWNJCxD_1XOU~) this Wednesday on funding for the Highway Trust Fund, while SBC will follow with a [hearing](https://url.emailprotection.link/?b0x5ZRVTWgJj7PszV10cUWKiihPjz4HtHMwziATcC3j9aSmQT66uIgXcsiaAoFTKhuBatjt-vZHk4eGTo0eNUjgTr_G9aDRGUEIEKRLndfnlMl3ntYO1wJiTRSruYLXcqdsF3h_BrQhDMDeTMi22KraPgdNUTp1DtVzytXTr-DimvDsnsKP58QClsrYNtOhwHUPw03Na2JWwNp3ola7tZ2Q~~) on Thursday covering public transit issues. At the committee level, Democratic chairs and Republican ranking members continue to have discussions on potential policy outlines. Before any bipartisan agreement can be reached, two issues will have to be addressed: how expansive the package will be beyond traditional highway bill priorities, and how will a package be paid for. As a reminder, most surface transportation reauthorization priorities cannot be done through reconciliation, including general fund transfers into the Highway Trust Fund. Congressional Review Act - The use of the Congressional Review Act (CRA) will likely be used during this work period. So far Democratic leaders have announced their intention to target Trump-era rules on settlement claims and methane emissions from oil and gas operations. Other CRAs are also possible. Energy/Climate – It’s been reported that the White House will host a virtual Climate Leaders’ Summit on April 22nd and 23rd. Leader McCarthy and House Republicans will push their own energy and climate agenda prior to the White House summit, and it will focus on innovation, infrastructure, American jobs, supply chain protection and environmental policies consistent with conservative principles. --- ### 03.23.2021 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/03-23-2021-washington-update/ - Published: 2021-03-23 - Updated: 2021-03-23 Senate – This is the Senate’s last week in session before a two-week recess. It will return to business on April 12th. The major focus on the floor this week is H.R. 1799, the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) Extension Act, which would extend the program to May 31st. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) filed cloture on the motion to proceed on the bill last week. The PPP is set to expire at the end of March. The House easily passed the bill 415 to 3. Senate Democratic leaders hope a clean version of the legislation can pass without consuming valuable floor time. However, some Senate Republicans are seeking to amend the legislation to prohibit the Small Business Administration (SBA) from setting priorities for processing the applications of some entities over others. If the bill cannot be passed by unanimous consent, Senate Democratic leaders may have to negotiate a potential time agreement so the Senate can leave for recess by Thursday afternoon. President Biden’s cabinet will be complete this week with the confirmation of Marty Walsh to be Labor Secretary. The Senate is also expected to consider the following nominations this week (in the following order): - Shalanda D. Young to be Deputy Director of the Office of Management and Budget; - Vivek Hallegere Murthy to be Medical Director in the Regular Corps of the Public Health Service and Surgeon General of the Public Health Service; - Rachel Leland Levine to be an Assistant Secretary of Health and Human Services; - David Turk to be Deputy Secretary of Energy; and - Adewale O. Adeyemoto to be Deputy Secretary of the Treasury. Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will be testifying Tuesday and Wednesday before the House Financial Services and the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committees for their quarterly COVID response hearings. During recess, considerable work will continue on the development of a potential bipartisan legislative package to strengthen U.S. competitiveness against China. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Menendez (D-NJ) announced a markup on April 14th of his committee’s portion of the bill. Other committees may also convene markups around that time with the goal of having a consolidated package on the Senate floor in the second half of April. Senators have been introducing several bipartisan bills aimed at curbing China’s economic influence including: - The Endless Frontiers Act (Schumer, Young) - The STRATEGIC Act (Risch, Romney, Young, Sullivan, Rounds, Wicker, Rubio, Hagerty, and Portman) - The LEADS Act (Menendez, Durbin, Wyden, Brown, Murray, Reed, Warner, Klobuchar, Van Hollen, Shaheen) - Innovation Centers Acceleration Act (Coons, Durbin) - National Manufacturing Guard Act (Coons, Rubio, Hassan, Cornyn) - Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (Rubio, Merkley) --- ### 03.16.21 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/03-16-21-washington-update/ - Published: 2021-03-16 - Updated: 2021-03-16 Senate – Yesterday, the Senate confirmed Rep. Debra Haaland (D-NM) as Interior Secretary which kicked off a week of confirmation votes with Isabella Guzman expected to be confirmed as Administrator of the Small Business Administration and Katherine Tai to be United States Trade Representative. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has also filed cloture on Xavier Becerra to be Secretary of Health and Human Services as well as Marty Walsh to be Secretary of Labor. The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) is set to expire at the end of this month, and both the Senate and the House are taking steps to extend it. Senate Committee on Small Business & Entrepreneurship Chair Ben Cardin (D-MD), Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) have introduced legislation that would extend the program for another two months and provide an additional 30 days for the U.S. Small Business Administration to process loans submitted before the newly proposed May 31, 2021 deadline. The legislation is a companion to the House bill that is expected to pass the chamber this week with Republican support. Its outlook in the Senate is murkier, however, due to the notable silence of Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), the new ranking member of the Senate Small Business and Entrepreneurship Committee. Sen. Paul will play a pivotal role in any attempt to pass the PPP Extension Act by unanimous consent in the Senate. His views on the legislation are likely to become public on Wednesday, when his committee holds a hearing on the future of the PPP. There are some signals that Senate Democratic leaders may soon bring to the floor legislation expanding background checks for private gun sales. Similar legislation has already passed the House. A procedural vote in the Senate would follow expected hearings in the Senate Judiciary Committee. Similar bills have failed to garner 60 votes in the past, but this issue—along with test votes on immigration, election rules and union organizing—could again become fodder for progressive Democratic members seeking to change the Senate’s filibuster rules. House – Last week, we told you that Leader McCarthy (R-CA) has been working with ranking members to develop legislative priorities. This effort goes beyond merely outlining alternative visions for policy. At the committee levels, Republicans are working to draft legislative language, score it, and collect co-sponsors. These substantive packages will then be ready to move quickly in the event that Republican votes are needed to pass broader legislation or break stalemates on other issues. As an example of this, in the energy space, some Republican priorities are being unveiled this week as part of a “Securing Cleaner American Energy” agenda. The agenda includes 18 bills covering issues such as climate change and clean energy infrastructure. We would expect that you will see other committees doing similar things. We have previously noted how difficult it will be for the House Democratic leadership to pass one-sided legislation due to their slim majority. Many have asked when the open House seats will be filled by special elections. The following is a list of those expected elections: - Louisiana CD-5 & CD-2 – Special elections March 20th, with runoff April 24th if needed - Texas CD-6 – Special election May 1st - Ohio CD-11 – TBD (Gov. DeWine, R, could schedule it as late as November) - New Mexico CD-1 – TBD --- ### The Party They’ll Get, Not the Party They Want - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/the-party-theyll-get-not-the-party-they-want/ - Published: 2021-03-16 - Updated: 2023-06-23 For the business community, the news that President Biden is considering the first major tax increase since 1993 was probably unsurprising. And maybe not so troubling, given that it will be difficult to pass in a nearly evenly divided Congress. But when that news is juxtaposed to Sen. Roy Blunt’s (R-MO) recently announced retirement, it might be time for concern. The reason is straightforward: Blunt’s retirement, along with Senators Portman (R-OH), Burr (R-NC), Shelby (R-AL), and Toomey (R-PA) creates greater political space for the GOP’s younger, insurgent populists to flex their muscles. This suggests, among other things, trouble ahead for the tried-and-true coalition of Republicans and corporate America—and the issues they care about. For decades, that coalition reliably fought what they viewed as big government, anti-free-market policies. Along with conservative talk radio and think tanks, it comprised the heart of the GOP. At least on some issues, this union will likely endure for the policy fights ahead. But evidence suggests an unraveling is coming. GOP populists in Congress are often frustrated by (in their view) woke CEOs embracing avant-garde social agendas. The upshot, especially for policy, is a party increasingly unwilling to listen simultaneously to corporate priorities on, say, tax and trade policy, alongside their CEOs latest cultural forays. What does that mean for tax policy, and much else? For one thing, a party that once made cutting corporate income taxes a standard policy trope may be fading from view. Trump may be out of office, but his legacy, which GOP members indelibly embraced through letters, press releases, votes, and op-eds, lives on. In good measure thanks to Trump (and his U.S. Trade Representative, Bob Lighthizer), the GOP no longer accepts the inevitable tradeoffs of free trade and globalization. Moreover, supply-side orthodoxy, especially on spending and taxes, no longer commands the reflexive support it once did. This is not to say that Republicans favor more spending or higher taxes across the board. But for the populist GOP, “America First” is about putting the “American worker” before those concerned about corporate bottom lines. Longtime GOP leaders such as Sen. Blunt (think also of former Speakers Boehner and Ryan) have been squarely within the GOP’s mainstream. They represented a solid core of the party’s business-minded establishment, which enjoyed considerable influence over the party’s major economic and financial concerns. But the nation’s political, economic, and cultural landscape has rapidly, and radically, changed underneath them. A younger generation of GOP leaders-in-waiting has seized on these changes and their implications for the party’s future. Where one sits on the political spectrum has reliably been determined by class. As these new leaders see it, that seat for Republicans is no longer “the country club.” And with the party in thrall to former President Trump, and a conservative base feeling besieged by cancel culture, congressional Republicans are responding to constituents’ grievances about a country they don’t recognize. These members are growing not just in number, but in influence. Conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt last week issued a remarkable broadside against the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, in which he tweeted, “The embrace of Democrats in campaigns failed, betraying its members and its legacy. Time to revolt Main Street. It’s the Chamber of Beltway Buddies, not Commerce.” Note here that Hewitt is not a right-wing firebrand, but a sober-minded member of the GOP’s establishment and a regular commentator on Meet the Press. He is conservative, no doubt, but not in league with Sean Hannity, Dan Bongino, or Mark Levin. He may have offended NBC’s corporate sponsors, but he was also playing to his listeners’ views. That he is playing at all suggests something is afoot. The corporate-Main Street divide may have been a convenient cliché invoked by both parties to strike a populist note. But for the GOP, it is slowly becoming a fact of political life. It might be too early to characterize this churn as some grand “realignment.” But it’s safe to say that the likes of Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO), Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), and Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) are more aligned with the party’s conservative base on key economic issues than the Republican generation that preceded them. Hawley, Scott, Blackburn and others have tapped into the party’s anti-Big Business bent, which seems relatively indifferent to an increase in capital gains and corporate income taxes. Consider Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR). To counter the Democrats’ push (which ultimately failed) to include a federal minimum wage increase to $15-an-hour in the $1.9 trillion COVID-19 package, he, along with Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT), introduced an alternative, dubbed, “The Higher Wages for American Workers Act.” Of interest, Cotton included a wage hike to $10-an-hour and attached Trumpian immigration policies strengthening penalties for companies that hire illegal immigrants. “America has a responsibility to protect its citizens, but for years Congress has allowed the pay of our poorest workers to be eroded by competition from illegal immigrants and skyrocketing cost of living,” Cotton and Romney wrote. “With this bill, we have a chance to correct both these failures.” With this bill, the party’s 2012 presidential nominee (Romney) joined a leading 2024 Republican presidential candidate (Cotton) on a bill requiring a federal minimum wage hike, with immigration policy opposed by corporations. Once upon a time, this would have been unthinkable, but it is now fairly unremarkable. Whether on issues related to technology and social media, immigration, taxes, trade, and much else, congressional Republicans—many of whom are under the age of 50—are gravitating more and more to the views and demands of their conservative base. As noted, “woke-ism” is a central target of GOP voters, and their younger leaders are attacking what they perceive is its unholy grip on the nation’s major social, cultural, and economic institutions. It’s not clear what this tendency suggests over the long-term, but for now, the business community needs to rethink how it engages the GOP on issues they consider fundamental. Because their list of priorities and the GOP’s may not always overlap in the same way it once did. --- ### 03.09.21 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/03-09-21-washington-update/ - Published: 2021-03-09 - Updated: 2021-03-09 Overview—This week, the Senate will confirm Rep. Marcia Fudge (D-OH) to be the 18th Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). Along with the expected confirmation of Rep. Debra Haaland (D-NM) to be Secretary of the Interior, Democrats will be left with just 219 votes in the House. It will be several months until special elections are held to replace each of them. If anything, this points to a widely overlooked fact: though in the minority, House Republicans really do matter. The Senate sent its version of the Biden COVID bill back to the House, where it surely will pass, but not without griping (both public and private) from some rank-and-file Democrats. That will signal difficulties ahead, as Congress moves to a months-long, and highly uncertain, process to consider an infrastructure package, the scope and contents of which are highly variable, depending on whom you ask. President Biden, and many Democrats, define infrastructure expansively, including climate change and other policies, which tend to defy any definitional limits. Republicans conceive it much more narrowly, confining it mostly to roads, bridges, highways, rail (to some extent), and water projects. To make matters more complicated, Democrats see infrastructure mostly (yes, there are exceptions) through an urban lens; Republicans through a rural one. It should be noted that both centrist and swing-voting senators Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Krysten Sinema (D-AZ) represent large rural constituencies and consider those voters when bucking progressives. Over the weekend, Sen. Joe Manchin suggested the infrastructure price tag could reach $4 trillion, paid for by unspecified tax increases. Surely, at least in theory, few, if any, Republicans would support such a bill. But that’s not the interesting part. More interesting is how Speaker Pelosi (D-CA) could pass such a bill, or something along those lines, in the House with such a razor-thin majority. This is not a partisan jab, but merely noting what is becoming a perennial predicament, one that faced previous Republican leaders, though with larger margins. With 219 votes, it’s reasonable to ask about, among other things, House difficulties in passing infrastructure and climate spending under reconciliation; or controversial appropriations bills (e.g., Defense, Labor HHS); or defense authorization; or immigration reform. What about tax increases? The answer is: nobody really knows. What is clear is that Republicans, with just a handful of Democratic moderates, can make or break some major Biden initiatives moving through the Senate and the House. The vote on Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) amendment to raise the minimum wage proved this point as seven Democratic members and independent Sen. Angus King voted against it, showing it could not even achieve a majority vote threshold. To prepare for this potential eventuality, House Republicans, specifically ranking members of key committees, are contemplating drafting legislation on various topics. They are preparing to have bills scored by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), with cosponsors (both Republican and Democratic), ready for prime time, that is, if needed as part of larger packages or to break legislative stalemates. So, just as former Speaker Boehner (R-OH) needed House Democrats, Speaker Pelosi may need House Republicans—likely more so, given the realities behind the math. And while the business community and official Washington speculate endlessly about Delphic statements from Sen. Manchin or parliamentary procedure in the Senate, just as notable is what may, or may not, happen in the House of Representatives in the coming months. Stay tuned. Senate – With the COVID reconciliation bill completed, Senate Democrats will now turn to their spring agenda items. The priority will be confirming Biden nominations on the Senate executive calendar. This week, the Senate will hold confirmation votes on Rep. Marcia Fudge to be Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Merrick Garland to be Attorney General, and Michael Regan to be Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency. Other nominees still awaiting Senate confirmation include: - Martin Walsh to be Secretary of Labor; - Isabella Guzman to be Administrator of the Small Business Administration; - William Burns to be Director of the Central Intelligence Agency; - Katherine Tai to be United States Trade Representative; - Adewale Adeyemo to be Deputy Secretary of the Treasury; - Debra Haaland to be Secretary of the Interior. Last week, the Senate Finance Committee deadlocked 14 to 14 on Rep. Xavier Becerra’s (D-CA) nomination to be Secretary of Health and Human Services. The tie vote will still allow Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) to bring the nomination to the full Senate for a vote, although the path is more complicated. In accordance with the Senate’s power-sharing agreement, the Majority or Minority Leader may--only after consultation with the chairman and ranking member of the committee--make a motion to discharge Becerra’s nomination. Debate is then limited to 4 hours on the nomination. Following the use or yielding back of time, the Senate would then vote on the motion to discharge and if agreed to, the nomination could then be placed on the executive calendar to be further considered under standard nomination procedures. Along with clearing nominations, Schumer has directed committee chairs to begin drafting a legislative package dealing with China, which could include the U.S. chipmaking industry’s competitiveness with China. While the legislation will focus on spurring U.S. manufacturing and research and development, other anti-China related provisions could be discussed. Issues such as trade enforcement, sanctions, and limiting China’s access to U.S. capital markets could also be brought up again. If enough Republicans become engaged in the discussions, which is a distinct possibility, a potential agreement could be reached for consideration as soon as April on the Senate floor. The other major initiative is the surface transportation reauthorization bill. The one-year extension of the Fixing America’s Surface Transportation (FAST) Act expires on September 30. Senators have been asked to submit their legislative requests to the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee by March 19th. The EPW Committee is hoping to vote on its package by Memorial Day. While the process is beginning in a bipartisan manner, there are major sources of disagreement around how to pay for the package, tradeoffs between climate change policies and significant permitting reforms, as well how to strike a balance between transportation priorities in rural areas with those in dense urban settings. House – The House votes on the Senate version of the COVID-19 reconciliation bill this week. Notably, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) retweeted comments of Democratic rank-and-file about their disappointment that certain priorities, such as a minimum wage increase, were removed from the bill. The revised COVID package will likely pass the House, but as noted above, the process won’t be easy, and surely won’t augur well for legislative battles ahead, including infrastructure. --- ### 02.23.21 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/02-23-21-washington-update/ - Published: 2021-02-23 - Updated: 2021-02-23 Bipartisanship and budget reconciliation don’t always go together. That fact may have far-reaching consequences for President Biden’s legislative agenda in the 117th Congress. In a 50-50 world, using a tool that only requires a simple majority to pass legislation—and quite significant legislation, at that—may get Democrats the bill they want, but not the outcome they need. President Biden will get his COVID relief/stimulus bill, but one wonders what it will mean for bipartisan cooperation over the next two years—and beyond. The rejoinder can already be heard: Republicans show no sign of cooperating with Biden—though several GOP senators believe they sought compromise at $600 billion, which was summarily rebuffed—so he has decided to plow forward without them. But if the early signal is sent that Republicans don’t matter, the partisanship now roiling the Capitol will only intensify. Biden’s central organizing principle, unity, simply won’t hold up. Republicans believe that Biden and the Democrats are making a bet, which could pay political dividends. Though the “51 or bust” strategy may inflame partisan fires, if Democrats secure consequential policy wins, the thinking goes, maybe the country will reward them in the mid-term elections. It’s possible. But Republicans are also aware that this a gamble against historical tides: the mid-terms rarely bode well for the incumbent President’s party. And Democrats may be overestimating what budget reconciliation can actually deliver. A $15-an-hour minimum wage? Time will tell. To look ahead, then: Official Washington is already chattering about Reconciliation #2, anticipated to cover infrastructure and climate change. But as has been endlessly reported, reconciliation (in the Senate, that is) imposes strict tests that the policy adventurous usually fail (think: a clean energy standard or electric vehicle mandates). Unless Senate Democrats are prepared to defenestrate decades of parliamentary precedent, that will continue to be the case. And that means the “policy” part of infrastructure largely falls by the wayside. But to build back better, policy is desperately needed—meaningful permitting reform, for example, so that building actually occurs. Without that, Democrats are left with…spending lots of money. As Republicans see it, that may be what congressional Democrats want, but whether it’s what they need—politically—is another question. As to unity, it’s not clear that Democrats have it on their side. With reconciliation the chosen vehicle, and with only 221 members in the House and 50 in the Senate, Speaker Pelosi (D-CA) and Majority Leader Schumer (D-NY), respectively, have little margin for error. Any misstep with progressives likely alienates Democratic moderates and creates a need for Republican votes. But don’t hold your breath. GOP centrists oppose Neera Tanden’s nomination for OMB Director, as they are unlikely to allow Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WVA) to outflank them on the right. As Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) predicted, reconciliation “will unify our party.” He then said, “I don’t think many Republicans are going to be for very many of the things that are coming out of this administration.” He was right. COVID Reconciliation Package – The House will vote on the Democrats’ COVID-19 relief proposal in the next few days, either Friday or Saturday. Following House passage, the bill will be sent to the Senate, where consideration can begin as soon as next week. The bill will go straight to the Senate floor, bypassing committees. Senate Democratic committee chairs don’t see this as a problem, as they “pre-conferenced” language with their House counterparts. Schumer may offer a substitute amendment to appease Democratic demands—of both the liberal and moderate kind—and deal with Byrd-rule problems raised by the Senate parliamentarian. In private, the Senate parliamentarian will opine on disputed provisions in the reconciliation package, most notably on the minimum wage. Moreover, the Congressional Budget Office found that the COVID bill, as drafted by the House, exceeds the $1.9 trillion reconciliation spending limit. This means that several billion in proposed spending will need to be cut at some point during the process. Also, prepare for another vote-a-rama, during which Republicans will file hundreds of amendments, cast Byrd Rule objections and raise budget points-of-order. As the Senate awaits the reconciliation package, floor time will be used to vote on Biden nominees. Linda Thomas-Greenfield is expected to be confirmed as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, and ditto for Tom Vilsack as Secretary of Agriculture (for the second time). Nominees for the Departments of Commerce, Energy, State, Housing and Urban Development, Education, Labor, and the Environmental Protection Agency are all awaiting consideration by the full Senate. This week will also feature committee hearings for Attorney General, the U.S. Trade Representative, as well as secretaries of Health and Human Services and Interior, and the director of the Central Intelligence Agency. House – In addition to passing the COVID bill (the “American Rescue Plan Act of 2021”), the House will vote on the “Protecting America’s Wilderness and Public Lands Act” and the “Equality Act,” which addresses discrimination against LGBTQ Americans. Next week, the House takes up H.R. 1, the “For the People Act,” which is the House Democrats’ campaign, election, and government reform legislation. The House will also consider the “George Floyd Justice in Policing Act.” For the week of March 8, the House could vote on the Senate-amended reconciliation package and send it to President Biden. --- ### 02.09.21 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/02-08-21-washington-update/ - Published: 2021-02-09 - Updated: 2021-02-09 Overview – Now that Congress has passed a budget, the real fun begins. And it’s called reconciliation. That lone word has been top-of-mind not only for budget process geeks, but everyone in Washington concerned about the course of policy, spending, and taxes over the next two years. A central question, beyond whether Biden’s COVID package will pass under reconciliation—it probably will—is whether the plan to include raising the federal minimum wage to $15 survives. Over the weekend, President Biden struck a pessimistic note, as the Congressional Budget Office issued a report concluding the minimum wage will cost 1.4 million jobs by 2025. But Senate Budget Committee Chairman Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is soldiering on, saying he has “an army of lawyers” working to ensure the wage hike passes the Byrd Rule test. But that’s the least of Sanders’ problems. Even if they get past the Parliamentarian, or if Democrats take the extreme step of disregarding her ruling, supporters need 51 votes, which, as of now, they don’t have. And as we’ve noted many times, don’t assume that Speaker Pelosi (D-CA) has an easy path to 218. Last week, that path became more cluttered, when the New York state Board of Elections certified Representative-elect Claudia Tenney the winner of New York’s 22nd Congressional District (her opponent has vowed to appeal, even to the House of Representatives). For now, that confirms the 15th House seat Republicans flipped during the last election cycle. This brings Pelosi’s majority to a tenuous 221-to-211 margin. And things could get worse. There are currently two vacant congressional seats in Louisiana, following the passing of Representative-elect Luke Letlow (R) and former Rep. Cedric Richmond’s (D) resignation to join the Biden Administration. Special elections in Louisiana will be held March 20; however, with so many candidates running, runoff elections in April seem plausible. (There will also be a vacant seat in Texas following today’s tragic passing of Rep. Ron Wright (R-TX).) Rep. Marcia Fudge (D-OH) is expected to resign, pending her confirmation to be the next Secretary of Housing and Urban Development. While no special election date has been announced, it could be as early as May when her seat is filled. This raises another central question: can Democratic leaders offer carrots to moderates, particularly Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WVA), to get their support for a minimum wage increase and other controversial priorities on reconciliation? Time will tell, but it seems doubtful. Consider Manchin. Of the things he would want most, helping his home-state coal industry would likely be paramount, something the Progressive Left could never abide. Meanwhile, Congressional Republicans appear united, at least in the reconciliation fight. Senate GOP moderates, who last month floated a $618 billion compromise COVID stimulus plan, feel vindicated after former Obama National Economic Council Director Larry Summers recently panned Biden’s $1.9 trillion COVID package as bloated, ill-advised, and potentially inflationary. As for the House GOP, the dust-up over House Conference Chairman Liz Cheney (R-WY) and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is now behind them. After some rough sledding, members emerged from last week’s conference meeting united, emboldened, and firmly behind Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA). They are ready to fight, with very few defections expected, the Democrats’ reconciliation package, which will follow President Biden’s “American Rescue Plan”. It will include additional direct payments to individuals, extended enhanced unemployment benefits, state and local aid, funding for vaccine distribution, housing and nutritional assistance, and some investments in public infrastructure such as public transit and broadband. House – There are no votes scheduled for the House floor for the next two weeks. House Democratic leaders want to vote on a final reconciliation package the week of February 22 when the House returns. House lawmakers could come back early should it come together earlier than that. Over the next several weeks, the twelve committees that received reconciliation instructions will mark up legislation for inclusion into an omnibus reconciliation bill. These markups will be arduous and seemingly endless, as House leaders want proposals sent to the House Budget Committee by this Friday (which is ambitious to say the least.) House Republicans will flood the zone with amendments, which, depending on the committee, could create vote-counting problems for Democrats. As such, this process, in committee and on the floor, may get tense and potentially dicey. Senate – The impeachment trial of former President Trump begins tomorrow, focusing the Senate’s attention this week. By standing rules, the Senate will begin each day at noon, except Sundays, and will continue until the trial is over, unless senators agree to changes. The shape and scope of the trial will determine how long the trial lasts. Senators will vote to adopt a rules agreement once the trial begins and is expected to grant up to 16 hours per side for presentations. The trial agreement will also set up a process for debate and a vote on whether witnesses will be called to provide testimony, which could prolong the trial. Democrats and Republicans alike want to make swift work of this exercise. Democrats want to focus on advancing President Biden’s recovery agenda and Republicans want to talk about something besides the tragic events of Jan. 6. President Trump’s first impeachment trial lasted three weeks. Many Republicans believe that impeaching a former president is unconstitutional and, based on public statements and prior votes, Trump’s acquittal is a near certainty. While the trial consumes time on the Senate floor each afternoon and evening, there will also be activity in Senate committees during morning business. After the adoption of the Senate organizing resolution last week, Senate Democrats now control the committees and their agendas. Work this week will continue to focus on processing President Biden’s nominations, including his picks for Secretaries of Labor and Education and director of the White House Office of Management and Budget. --- ### 02.02.21 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/02-02-21-washington-update/ - Published: 2021-02-02 - Updated: 2021-02-02 That was fast: President Biden’s unity message has run aground, as both sides revert to their corners on policy. Polarization will only intensify, as Biden’s executive order blitz (this week will be immigration) continues apace, and budget reconciliation appears to be the Democrats’ preferred path to pass Biden’s COVID package. As with executive fiat, reconciliation is a potent tool to avoid bipartisanship. Democrats can pass the bill in the Senate with 51 votes, no Republicans needed. All this strips real meaning from Biden’s unity plea. But more to the point, just how Democrats proceed—that is, will they follow Senate long-standing precedents on budget process?—will determine what gets passed and, for legislative purposes at least, the tone and tenor of the 117th Congress. The reconciliation process brings no guarantees. In a 50-50 Senate, getting 51 votes is no sure thing—prepare for some serious arm-twisting and deal-cutting. And do not assume, with Speaker Pelosi’s five-seat majority, that getting to 218 in the House will be any easier. Every single Democratic member can potentially disrupt the legislative process if they choose to. Progressive lawmakers in both chambers are fighting to incorporate a $15 minimum wage increase, even if the parliamentarian concludes it violates the Byrd Rule. That is just one of many progressive priorities that could alienate centrist Democrats. The news that Senators Joe Manchin (D-WVA) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) oppose eliminating the filibuster was unsurprising. The more important, and immediate, question is their tolerance for employing the nuclear option on reconciliation, not just on the minimum wage, but also significant regulatory and spending provisions that present major difficulties under regular order. As Biden economic adviser Jared Bernstein said over the weekend, the public doesn’t much care about parliamentary maneuvering; they just want a bill. In the end, Manchin et al. may agree. But make no mistake: the arcana of Senate procedure does matter for legislating and legislators, and perceptions (on either side) that rules are being circumvented can only inflame an already partisan Capitol. This will make President Biden’s earnest effort to unify much harder. Meanwhile, the wheels of process are turning. Democratic committee chairs have been submitting their reconciliation priorities to Senate and House Democratic leadership. Ten Senate Republicans, enough to break a filibuster with Democrats (and Independents), are actively promoting their $600 billion COVID package. This package includes funding for healthcare providers; enhanced unemployment benefits; childcare, schools; small businesses; behavioral health; direct payments; and increases for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. Democratic leaders want a final COVID-related reconciliation package by mid-March, when enhanced unemployment benefits expire. This is a highly ambitious timeline that will be difficult to achieve. For perspective, it took Republicans 56 days to pass the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act after a budget resolution was passed, and it took 197 days to process the American Health Care Act in 2017, which ultimately failed in the Senate. The following table provides even greater historical context. Senate: This week, Alejandro Mayorkas and Pete Buttigieg are expected to be confirmed as U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security and U.S. Secretary of Transportation, respectively. Following the confirmations, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) could file cloture on the motion to proceed on the budget resolution, which will contain reconciliation instructions for Senate committees. (The House Democrats filed their budget resolution text this afternoon and reports indicate the same text will also be used by Senate Democrats.) A “vote-a-rama” may take place on Thursday, when hundreds of political amendments will be filed. This could produce some support between hard-right conservatives and progressive Senators on policies that the business community opposes. In this new populist environment, many Senate Republicans cannot be taken for granted as pro-big business. Look for Leader Schumer and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) to protect their 2022 members from politically difficult votes. However, a few may be taken if the leaders agree to side-by-side amendments. Some populist amendments could be agreed to by unanimous consent or through en-bloc amendment packages, as opposed to putting members on record. There is no time limit to the vote-a-rama and it is up to the members to reach an agreement, usually late at night, to move to a vote on final passage. House – The House is back in session this week to work on their budget resolution, which will likely be passed on Wednesday. Also expect a vote on the bipartisan National Apprenticeship Act, which would authorize $3.5 billion for apprenticeships and other training opportunities. During the weeks of February 8 and 15, House committees that receive reconciliation instructions will convene and remotely vote out their reports to the House Budget Committee. The House could then return the week of February 22 to move the reconciliation package on the House floor. --- ### 01.25.2021 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/01-25-2021-washington-update/ - Published: 2021-01-25 - Updated: 2021-01-25 Senate - House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) sent the article of impeachment against former President Trump to the Senate last tonight. Following an agreement between Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), the Senate trial will begin the week of February 8. As to the rules of the trial, and what they mean for individual senators, the Congressional Research Service wrote the following on Jan. 21: Compared to when the Senate meets in legislative and executive session, the opportunity for individual participation by Senators in a Senate trial is limited. The rules require that any debate among Senators take place in closed session. Senators can make motions under the impeachment rules, but these rules are silent on what motions can be offered, and when. In modern trials, when Senators proposed motions, it was often pursuant to a previously-agreed-to order of the Senate. Senators can also submit written questions during the trial—to House Managers, counsel for the impeached officer, or witnesses—that the Presiding Officer presents on their behalf. Orders of the Senate, however, might structure the time and process for posing questions. During the open portion of an impeachment trial, Senators spend most of the time listening to arguments presented by House Managers and counsel for the impeached officer. The Trump trial will be by the book, and the outcome, though by no means assured, is not hard to fathom. Getting 17 Republicans voting to convict is a tall order. It’s possible that a handful break; some are looking to what Sen. McConnell, who publicly rebuked Trump for what happened on Jan. 6, will do. But it’s not clear if McConnell voting “aye” would cause the dam to break. Many Republicans dismiss this effort as a “snap impeachment,” which, they say, has unlawfully deprived Trump of the due process he deserves. Others question the constitutionality of conducting an impeachment trial of a private citizen, arguing that impeachment was designed by the framers to deal with those holding office. As the Senate trial unfolds, Schumer will have to continue moving Biden’s Cabinet nominees, as well as maneuver to cut deals on COVID legislation, and potentially draft and pass a budget reconciliation bill. And he will do this in the absence of an organizing resolution, which creates an awkward status quo, in which Republicans continue to control the committees, while Democrats control the floor. Several non-controversial cabinet nominees have received bipartisan support and will be confirmed quickly: Janet Yellen as Secretary of the Treasury (today) and Antony Blinken as Secretary of State soon thereafter. Pete Buttigieg (Transportation) and Alejandro Mayorkas (Homeland Security) are also likely to be confirmed soon. In the end, Biden’s Cabinet will likely be filled out, even as Republicans try to raise procedural and policy objections. The real fight, in our view, comes with sub-Cabinet nominees, who are likely to be more ideologically inclined and therefore more controversial. These are the policy players who make the agencies tick. Republicans can block scores of these nominees, forcing Schumer into a box, as he did repeatedly to McConnell during the Trump years, of having to endlessly file cloture. There’s simply not enough Senate floor time to do that, even with the Senate’s 2019 rule change allowing for 2 hours of debate (rather than 30) post-cloture for these nominations. Meanwhile, Leaders Schumer and McConnell continue to haggle over a power-sharing agreement. McConnell wants a commitment from Schumer that Senate Democrats won’t touch the legislative filibuster. Not surprisingly Schumer has demurred, pointing instead to the precedent set by the 2001 agreement forged between then-Leaders Lott (R-MS) and Daschle (D-SD), when the Senate was also 50-50. McConnell’s rejoinder: there was no legitimate threat in 2001 to eliminate the filibuster; there is now. In any event, the longer this process takes, the more detrimental it could be to President Biden’s early legislative agenda. White House – Republicans appear united in opposition to President Biden’s COVID package. Moderate Republicans contend the proposal is too broad and coming too soon after Congress passed a $900 billion COVID bill in December. Republicans continue to focus on targeted stimulus checks, vaccine distribution, liability protections and funds for other critical health needs. Moreover, repurposing unspent funds from previous COVID packages could help reach compromise, especially one that addresses Republicans’ deficit concerns. Democrats are eager to move quickly, so the question is how long they will wait for a bipartisan package to emerge. Democratic Budget Committee staffers are already moving on a budget resolution with reconciliation instructions, in the event negotiations crater. Reconciliation will be a partisan exercise, which undoubtedly vitiates Biden’s inaugural message of unity and bipartisanship. President Biden spent his first week in office issuing 19 executive orders—a record. More are expected this week on U.S. manufacturing, racial justice, immigration, and climate change. The EOs represent the beginning of a long process to systematically dismantle the policies of the Trump era. The road to doing so is fraught with political and especially, legal, peril, as new regulations, and those promulgated to rescind old ones, will be challenged in court. House – In a change to the schedule, the House will not be in session this week, but will be back the week of February 1, which was originally a district work period. --- ### 01.19.2021 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/01-18-2021-washington-update/ - Published: 2021-01-19 - Updated: 2021-01-19 White House – Last week, President-elect Biden unveiled a $1.9 trillion COVID relief plan, which includes several Republican priorities, such as funding for vaccines, testing, stimulus payments, and small business assistance. But Republicans are expected to oppose the measure due to the price tag as well as many other provisions that they staunchly oppose, such as aid for states and raising the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour. This is the opening salvo in a negotiation. The Biden Administration is signaling it would like this to be a bipartisan deal, hoping to avoid the more partisan and time-consuming route of budget reconciliation, which only requires 51 votes to pass. But it won’t be easy. It took Congress the better part of eight months to agree on December’s COVID relief bill. Negotiations could span much of February, with Democrats hoping to pass a final package before mid-March, when enhanced unemployment benefits expire. Republicans could agree to a smaller bipartisan package more narrowly focused on COVID-19-specific measures and direct payments. And they could very well insist, once again, that tailored liability protections for businesses should be part of the mix. Should negotiations with Republicans fail, Senate Democrats have two options: 1) proceed with the cumbersome and timely budget reconciliation process, or 2) wrestle with the knotty question of eliminating, or at a minimum revising, the legislative filibuster, which Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WVA), at least for now, opposes. Before these negotiations commence in earnest, President-elect Biden, once sworn into office at noon on Wednesday, will sign a flurry of executive orders. Among other things, they will instruct agencies to roll back President Trump’s priorities, as well as address issues such as climate change, racial equality, health care, and immigration. Senate – Top of mind this week is the Senate’s impeachment trial of President Trump. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) could send the article of impeachment to the Senate in the next few days and a trial could begin after President-elect Biden is sworn in. The impeachment trial could delay consideration of President-elect Biden’s cabinet nominees, as well as “resolutions of disapproval” under the Congressional Review Act to nullify certain Trump regulations. Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Senate Democrats would like to establish a process whereby the Senate can work concurrently on items on the executive and legislative calendars, as well as on the impeachment trial. This would require the consent of all 100 senators, which will be difficult to obtain. Georgia officials are expected to certify the results of the Jan. 5 runoff elections later this week. Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock are expected to be sworn in shortly thereafter. Alex Padilla of California, who will replace Kamala Harris, is also expected to be sworn into the Senate around the same time. Once all of this occurs, and Harris becomes vice president, Schumer will become the majority leader in the Senate. In the meantime, Leader Schumer and Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) must negotiate a Senate organizational resolution, which will have to be voted on or accepted by unanimous consent. This is critical for the functioning of a 50-50 Senate, including the makeup and funding of its committees. After the resolution is finalized, Senate committee assignments will soon be divvied up by each party. Most of the Senate’s work this week will be at the committee level with hearings for several of Biden’s cabinet nominations, including the U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Department of Homeland Security, U.S. Department of Transportation, U.S. Treasury Department, and U.S. Department of State. Given the uncertainty around the organizing resolution, it’s not clear when committee votes, and hearings, on these and other nominees will occur. House – This week, the GOP Steering Committee will convene on the 21st and 22nd to finalize committee assignments. H.R. 1, the For the People Act, which addresses voting rights and election reforms, is expected to be the first major legislation that House Democrats will pass in the 117th Congress. Consideration of H.R. 1 is expected next week. --- ### CGCN Group Announces Amber Kirchhoefer as Advocacy Partner - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/cgcn-group-announces-amber-kirchhoefer-as-advocacy-partner/ - Published: 2021-01-15 - Updated: 2021-01-15 Today, we are pleased to announce that Amber Kirchhoefer, who most recently served as Deputy Chief of Staff to Kansas Sen. Pat Roberts, will be joining the firm as a partner. Amber’s Senate experience, reputation, and knowledge of the issues will provide tremendous value for our clients. Amber Kirchhoefer served as deputy chief of staff to former Sen. Pat Robert, chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee. As deputy chief of staff, she was responsible for overseeing Sen. Roberts’ legislative and political agenda. Prior to serving as Deputy Chief of Staff, Amber spent nine years as Sen. Roberts’ Legislative Director, managing issues before nine Senate committees, including serving as chief liaison to the Senate Finance Committee, which will lead efforts to advance new tax policies in the 117th Congress. In addition, she worked with the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, which has jurisdiction over health care legislation. Her experience includes passing, among other bills, the 2018 farm bill and biosecurity legislation. From appropriations to health care to tax and trade, Amber is well-versed in Senate rules, procedures, and committee processes. Prior to working for Sen. Roberts, Amber worked for Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT), serving as a Legislative Assistant with responsibility for healthcare. In addition to working in Sen. Bennett’s personal office, she also served as Professional Staff on the Joint Economic Committee and the Senate Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem. --- ### 1.12.2021 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/1-12-2021-washington-update/ - Published: 2021-01-12 - Updated: 2021-01-12 House – Yesterday, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) announced the House will vote on Wednesday to impeach President Trump. Before they do that, however, House Democrats will also attempt to pass a resolution urging Vice President Pence to invoke the 25th Amendment to oust President Trump from office. Impeaching the President by January 20th will require House Democrats to bring a resolution straight to the floor as a privileged resolution, rather than through the House Judiciary Committee. Currently, there are 222 members in the House Democratic Caucus, with 217 needed for passage on the floor. House leaders may elect to hold the articles of impeachment until President-elect Biden is in office and Democrats have control of the Senate. Conviction in the Senate requires “two-thirds of members present,” or 67 votes. Obviously, a considerable number of Republicans would have to support Trump’s conviction to reach that threshold. Note that even though this could happen after Trump leaves office, it is not a moot point. Separately, the Senate can vote to disqualify Trump from “hold[ing] and enjoy[ing] any Office of honor, Trust or Profit under the United States,” and further that he “shall nevertheless be liable and subject to Indictment, Trial, Judgement and Punishment, according to Law.” (According to Justia US Law, “Unlike removal, disqualification from office is a discretionary judgment, and there is no explicit constitutional linkage to the two-thirds vote on conviction.”) So, the political and personal stakes, for Trump at least, are high. A big question is what President-elect Biden wants to happen. He has emphasized time and again his sincere intention to unite the nation. Moreover, it’s possible that an impeachment trial could overshadow his agenda. So far, President-elect Biden has said that any decisions regarding impeachment are up to Congress. Incoming Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) will also have to consider how an impending trial could impact the Senate’s floor agenda, which, along with Biden’s legislative priorities on COVID/stimulus and infrastructure, must accommodate consideration of Biden’s Cabinet nominees. It’s still unclear how, or whether, a trial and regular order could coexist. We should note that the Senate can do both morning business and conduct an impeachment trial in the afternoon, because the Senate would convene at 1:00 pm. So, it’s entirely possible that Biden nominees, beyond DOD, could start moving, even with a trial occurring. Senate – The makeup of the 117th Congress is now settled. Yet important procedural steps remain open. The Senate is in recess this week, but negotiations on a Senate organization resolution, which, among other things, will establish committee ratios and budgets, are commencing. The 2001 power-sharing agreement, forged by then-Senate Majority Leader Lott (R-MS) and then-Minority Leader Tom Daschle (D-SD), could serve as a starting point for negotiations. But, ultimately, it will be up to Schumer and Leader McConnell (R-KY) and their respective caucuses, as a resolution requires 60 votes to pass. Georgia’s Democratic Senators-elect, Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, have not been officially sworn-in. And until Vice President-elect Harris becomes Vice President, Senate Republicans remain in control. But in effect, that doesn’t mean much. So far, only retired General Lloyd Austin, nominated to be Secretary of Defense, has received a hearing date (Jan. 19). Added to the mix is the Congressional Review Act (CRA), which authorizes fast-track procedures (including a simple majority vote in the Senate) to nullify major regulations—in this case, according to our calculation, those that were issued by federal agencies on or after August 21, 2020. Incoming Biden Administration officials can also stop any rule that is not published in the Federal Register, or significantly delay implementation of rules that have been published, but not taken effect. Congressional Republicans successfully used the CRA 16 times when President Trump took office. White House – There has been some discussion around a two-part stimulus bill from President-elect Biden. Components could include $2,000 direct payments, state and local funding, vaccine distribution funding, unemployment benefits, rental relief, tax incentives, and additional small business assistance. At this stage, it’s too early to tell whether Republicans will support Biden’s proposal. --- ### 1.3.21 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/1-3-21-washington-update/ - Published: 2021-01-03 - Updated: 2021-01-03 Georgia Runoff – While it may be 2021, the 2020 election cycle is still with us with the Georgia runoff on January 5th. With December 31st as the last day for in-person early voting in most Georgia counties around 3 million Georgians have voted in-person and absentee by mail. By comparison, 3.9 million Georgians turned out for early voting before the general election. More than 114,000 Georgians who didn’t vote in the general election have already voted in the runoffs. On January 4th, President Trump will rally his base in Dalton, Georgia, a key county seat for Republicans. It will be a late-night on January 5th, and may take days, or even a week, before the final victors are announced (similar to the general election). With the chance of litigation, a certified outcome could be pushed even further. This means that Georgia will be without one senator for some period of time as Sen. David Perdue’s (R-GA) term ends on January 3rd. Sen. Kelly Loeffler’s (R-GA) term does not expire until 2023. 117th Congress Begins – In the Senate, swearing-in will be at noon today, with 51 Republican senators and 48 Democrat senators. Returning and new senators will take their oaths followed by a live quorum call to begin the 117th Congress. Until the two Georgia runoff races are finalized, there will be no organizing resolution, and Senate committee assignments will remain in their current form. Members have been submitting their committee requests, and nine committees will eventually have new Republican leaders. If Republicans retain the majority in the Senate, then organizing the Senate can occur quickly. If Democrats win both Georgia seats, resulting in a 50-50 tie, organizing negotiations will have to occur between leaders Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Chuck Schumer (D-NY), something that has not occurred since January 2001. On the House side, there is little room for error for Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) to be reelected as Speaker. House Democrats will have a 222-211 edge to start the 117th Congress, with one race yet to be resolved and one vacancy, with the tragic death of Representative-elect Luke Letlow (R-LA). The vote must be in person so members will be present and voting in groups for hours throughout Sunday. For a handful of Democratic members, this will be their first time voting in person since last March. The House will also vote on a new rules package this week with some significant changes, most notably to the motion to recommit. The House minority will no longer be able to amend or recommit a bill with instructions before final passage on the House floor. Motions to recommit will now only send legislation back to the committee of jurisdiction and the motion will be non-debated. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and Republican members are livid over this maneuver. With the motion to recommit essentially eliminated, House Republicans might shift their focus to the use of discharge petitions. If momentum were to ever build behind using discharge petitions, bills can be automatically scheduled for floor consideration if supporters garner at least 218 signatures. The rules package also includes the so-called “Gephardt Rule,” which would automatically increase the debt limit if the House passes a budget resolution. The debt limit is currently suspended until July 31st. Through the Treasury Department's “extraordinary measures,” this date of fiscal reckoning can be pushed into the fall. This could lead to the interesting confluence of negotiations over the debt, annual government spending measures, and the expiration of key program authorizations, all at the same time. Also under the new rules package, PAYGO rules can be waived for measures that “prevent, prepare for, or respond to economic, environmental, or public health consequences resulting from climate change.” This means it would be easier to pass major Democratic spending and stimulus packages. Earmarks were not specifically mentioned in the package, leaving the issue to be resolved by the respective House Democratic and Republican conferences. The rules package will also extend remote voting rules from the 116th Congress; it also requires the House Clerk to submit a new process by February for House members to be able to indicate their support for Senate-passed measures that have been received by the House. Election Certification – At 1:00 PM on Wednesday, Congress will meet jointly to count certifications of electoral votes from the 2020 presidential election. Eyes are on a select number of House and Senate Republicans to see if they will jointly file an objection to any state certificates. If a joint objection is heard, then there will be two hours of debate in both the House and Senate on the objection, and then a vote will occur on whether to approve or deny the questioned electoral votes for an individual state. The entire process could go late into Wednesday night. The last time this occurred was in 2005. Senate Republican leaders are not supportive of these objections and have told their conference not to support any objections by House Republicans. If any objection votes are called, some Senate Republicans up for re-election in 2022, and worried about potential primary opponents, may join forces with other Trump allies. Leader McConnell has reportedly said any votes on certifying the 2020 election will be “the most consequential I have ever cast.” --- ### 12.15.20 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/12-15-20-washington-update/ - Published: 2020-12-15 - Updated: 2020-12-15 Congress continues to work on a major year-end spending bill, either an omnibus or cromnibus, along with a COVID-19 relief package and other legislative member priorities. Leaders hoped to finish work today, but a universal agreement appears elusive. Also of note: early voting in the two Georgia Senate runoff elections begins today. On COVID-19, the fundamental question is whether to advance a package without liability protections and state and local funding, the approach favored by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY). A final agreement will be forged by the White House and the “Big Four” — McConnell, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA). In addition, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin is opposed to the inclusion of “expense deductibility” for Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans, which has strong support in Congress, including from Senate Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-IA) and Ranking Member Ron Wyden (D-OR). Negotiators are close to finishing an omnibus appropriations bill. The House and Senate tax-writing committees are pushing tax and healthcare extenders into the year-end spending package, but they are proving to be contentious, with some of the most significant debate centering around potential “payfors.” Other extraneous items could ride on the omnibus. Last Friday, House and Senate healthcare committee leaders agreed on legislation to address surprise medical billing. (Notably, some members would like to use the potential $16 billion in savings from the agreement for other health care priorities.) Also in the mix: pipeline safety reauthorization; various bipartisan energy provisions taken from House and Senate energy legislation; and the Water Resources Development Act. The path to the exits remains littered with complications. First, it’s not clear whether President Trump will support COVID-19 relief without his priorities included. Democrats and the media were quick to dismiss the administration's $918 billion proposal, offered last week by Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. On top of this, a new “gang” has emerged—one might even call it a “populist gang,” joining the left and right. Two unlikely allies, Senators Bernie Sanders (D-VT) and Josh Hawley (R-MO), are insisting on $1,200 stimulus checks in the final COVID package (adding significant cost to the bill), with Sanders threatening a filibuster if their demand is unmet. (Observers should note the potential of these polar- opposites to unite the bases of both parties, which have the numbers to drive some unexpected changes in the next Congress, and even pull support from the middle.) Lawmakers are staring down the December 18 government funding deadline, with “Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation,” a program under the CARES Act, set to expire on December 26. Another short-term continuing resolution may be needed if negotiators run out of time, which cannot be ruled out. Looming over this end-of-year frenzy is the Georgia special election, on January 5. Early voting started today, and it cannot be denied that the outcome of these races is a factor in this week’s Hill negotiations. This week, no votes are expected in the House until an agreement is reached on appropriations and Covid-19 relief, while the Senate will continue to process nominations. President Trump stated on Sunday that he still intends to veto the National Defense Authorization Act conference report, which Congress approved overwhelmingly: The House passed the measure 335-78, the Senate 84-13. While Congress isn’t taking the threat lightly, it’s clear that Trump’s veto could be easily overridden before the 116th Congress adjourns. --- ### 12.08.20 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/12-08-20-washington-update/ - Published: 2020-12-08 - Updated: 2020-12-08 House and Senate Update – As lawmakers continue negotiations around end-of-year government spending, the impending December 11 deadline is expected to be extended through a Continuing Resolution. The new deadline is likely to be December 18. Talks on the Hill are ongoing on multiple fronts. Appropriators are working on an omnibus or “cromnibus” that could be combined with a COVID relief package. The bipartisan “gang” of senators will soon produce a more thorough outline of the COVID relief proposal they announced last week which could be around $900 billion. It is important to note that the bipartisan proposal is noteworthy, but House and Senate leaders are the ultimate deciders of what is in, or out, of any package given the size and scopes of their respective caucuses. Progress is being made, but major debate remains around liability protections and state and local funding. Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) and Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL) are spearheading negotiations on liability protections. Cornyn has been the leader for the Republican conference on liability and its implications during the pandemic. Lawmakers have been especially focused on the length of time businesses might receive liability protections related to COVID-19. Depending on vaccine distribution, protections could cover 2020 and part of 2021. State and local funding disagreements have to do with the parameters around potential funding. Republicans want to ensure no federal funds could be used to bail out financially strapped state programs unrelated to the COVID crisis. Appropriations chairs, along with those from authorizing committees (and ranking members) continue to work on an FY 2021 spending package. Some areas of disagreement are being set aside for leadership to resolve, but appropriations sub-committee chairs are still trying to reach agreements amongst themselves. We expect more involvement from House and Senate leaders in these negotiations as the week progresses. Issues surrounding funding for the Department of Homeland Security and others may result in some subcommittees receiving current-year funding while others receive new allocations. Other expiring legislative and tax policy authorizations, several of which come from the Senate Finance and House Ways and Means Committee, could also extend negotiations around a final, year-end spending deal. President Trump issued veto threats to the National Defense Authorization Act on grounds that negotiators failed to include reforms to Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act in the final bill. Discussions around this and other knotty issues in the NDAA will continue this week. We will soon know if the House and Senate can muster the necessary two-thirds majorities needed to override a potential Trump veto. The House will vote today on the NDAA conference report and the Senate will follow soon thereafter. The Senate will consider nominees to fill floor time as these agreements are being negotiated. Notably, a confirmation vote will come for Nathan Simington to be a member of the Federal Communications Commission. Senators could also vote on a privileged joint resolution of disapproval regarding arms sales. Bipartisan leaders in both chambers continue to express interest in sending the 2020 Water Resources Development Act (WRDA) to the President’s desk this year. The House is expected to vote on WRDA under suspension of the rules this week. Finally, negotiators are very close to agreeing on, and potentially attaching, a suite of non-controversial energy provisions to the year-end spending package. --- ### 12.02.2020 Washinton Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/12-02-2020-washinton-update/ - Published: 2020-12-02 - Updated: 2020-12-02 House and Senate Legislative Update – The Senate returns this week to continue negotiations on the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), a potential end-of-year spending package, and to confirm nominees. Senator-elect Mark Kelly (D-AZ) will also be sworn into the Senate this week, giving Republicans a 52-48 majority. As we saw when the Senate was last in session, Covid-19-related attendance issues could impact some Senate Republican priorities, such as the consideration of nominations. On Monday, members of the House and Senate Armed Services Committees worked through their differences on a final NDAA. They plan on producing legislative text soon. The debate over military bases named after Confederate military figures continues to be a prominent stumbling block. President Trump has maintained his opposition to any language that would require, over time, changing the names of those bases, and could veto NDAA over this issue. Leaders of both parties, on both sides of the Capitol, have given appropriators plenty of negotiating room to reach a spending deal. But fracturing is already occurring, as House Minority leadership announced its opposition to the top-line spending agreement hatched by leaders of the House and Senate spending panels. As is the case with the NDAA, it is unknown what President Trump’s position will be on a final negotiated funding package. Moreover, discussions on additional COVID-19 provisions, namely extending unemployment insurance, small business relief, and potentially other measures, will also influence spending talks. As of now, it’s hard to see a massive spending deal, replete with COVID-19 relief, coming together. A straight continuing resolution (CR), a “cromnibus,” or a CR (with some riders) is certainly possible. With the Georgia runoffs looming over negotiations, anything at this point seems possible, and the political stakes couldn’t be any higher. It’s also worth noting that some Democratic House members are considering eliminating the motion to recommit, for obvious reasons. With such a slim majority (the latest count by the Associated Press has Republicans at 206, with the likelihood of gaining three additional seats and the possibility of 213, in the next Congress), Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) has very little margin for error. This is likely to make “calling the previous question” – generally used as a motion to end debate on a pending proposal and bring it to an immediate vote – and discharge petitions more common in the next Congress. House GOP and Democratic Steering Committees are meeting this week. There will be presentations and votes on chairmen, ranking members, as well as discussion around new members of every committee. The process will begin with uncontested votes and then move to contested. Notably, votes on the House Committee on Armed Services took place yesterday, and votes on the House Committee on Energy and Commerce will take place today. Additionally, we have compiled a list of expiring tax and legislative provisions and programs through 2021. [View List](https://www.cgcn.com/wp-content/uploads/Federal-Programs-Expiring-2020-2021.pdf) --- ### CGCN Group: Leaders in Financial Services Advocacy - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/cgcn-group-leaders-in-financial-services-advocacy/ - Published: 2020-11-25 - Updated: 2020-11-25 There has never been a more exciting or a more uncertain time for the financial services industry. New financial technologies and private funding opportunities are radically improving possibilities for both financial institutions, investors, and consumers, but new legislation and regulation at the federal level could have massive impacts on the industry for better or worse. We are here to help you navigate the coming changes from Washington D.C. as well as seize on any potential opportunities. The partners at CGCN have a long history of being part of the process of shaping financial technology and securities policy, both in the government and as corporate advocates. While others may take a wait-and-see approach, we believe in seizing favorable openings by working with a broad spectrum of influential voices including grassroots activists, the press, and rank-and-file members of Congress so that we have a strong base of support before we even approach key Congressional leaders. At CGCN, we understand that lawmakers want companies of all sizes to have access to the capital they need to create jobs and facilitate growth. They want to promote innovation in banking and investing that helps people secure their financial futures. Let us make sure you have a seat at the table to help make that happen! #### Meet Our Expert Team #### MIKE NIELSEN Mike is a highly regarded expert on financial-services issues who had a hand in crafting every major piece of legislation that moved through the Senate Banking Committee from the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act of 1999 through the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010. Nielsen served as the top banking and economic aide to former Utah Sen. Robert Bennett and as Staff Director of the Financial Services Subcommittee of the Senate Banking Committee. He joined CGCN in 2013 and continues to focus on economic and financial services issues on behalf of clients. #### SCOTT RIPLINGER Scott brings a decade of experience to CGCN having most recently worked as Legislative Director for Chairman Mike Crapo. He served in leadership roles for two members of the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee where he successfully crafted and advanced financial services legislation into law. He was also Majority Staff Director for the Securities, Insurance, and Investment Subcommittee where he worked on policy connected to the U.S. Treasury Department and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Scott was named one of [The Hill'](https://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/top-lobbyists/529550-the-hills-top-lobbyists-2020)s top 2020 lobbyists. #### ANTONIA FERRIER Antonia has built her reputation working for some of the most high-profile members of the House and Senate, including then-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, former House Speaker John Boehner and Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch. She has played an instrumental role in the communication and strategic planning for a wide variety of issues, including tax reform, health care and trade agreements. The Washington Post described her as “one of the top Republican message gurus on Capitol Hill.” Antonia was named one of [The Hill'](https://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/top-lobbyists/529550-the-hills-top-lobbyists-2020)s top 2020 lobbyists. #### JOHN STIPICEVIC John understands the inner-workings of the House of Representatives and what it takes to pass or stop any piece of finance-related legislation. Having served as a top aide to House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy he has worked with every member of the Financial Services Committee – many of whom also serve as members of the Whip Operation. As the Floor Director and through his capacity on the Whip Team, John worked with the Committee and policy teams to marshal priorities across the House Floor. John was named one of [The Hill'](https://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/top-lobbyists/529550-the-hills-top-lobbyists-2020)s top 2020 lobbyists. #### SAM GEDULDIG Sam brings unrivaled passion and expertise to his work on clients’ behalf. He worked as a top aide on the House Financial Services Committee to then-Chairman Mike Oxley before spending four years as the top liaison between House GOP leaders and the business community as a senior advisor to then-House Majority Whip Roy Blunt. As the Washingtonian noted, his “experiences allow him to offer his clients an exceptionally well-rounded view of the legislative process.” --- ### CGCN Weekly Update 11/18 - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/cgcn-weekly-update-11-18/ - Published: 2020-11-18 - Updated: 2020-11-18 Senate – The Senate will wrap up business this week before the Thanksgiving break. On the list are confirmation votes for judicial nominees and potentially Judy Shelton, an informal economic advisor to President Trump, to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Government funding talks between Senate Appropriations Chairman Richard Shelby (R-AL) and House Democrats will also continue throughout the week. The current goal is an agreement on an omnibus spending bill. One major hurdle is reaching consensus on what constitutes “emergency” and “non-emergency” spending. But with the December 11 funding deadline approaching, a short-term continuing resolution appears more likely. Negotiations on another COVID-19 relief package are deadlocked, as House Democrats and Senate Republicans are steadfast in their opposing positions. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has replaced top Trump Administration officials as the primary negotiator for Republicans. It is still unknown if President Trump would support signing into law any potential agreement made between Congressional leaders. House – Republican leaders, in addition to beginning discussions around some end-of-year policy, are largely focused on organizational meetings, most notably on leadership elections. Republicans are also beginning the Steering Committee process for current members, which now includes a very large freshman class. They will then focus on committee ranking members during the first week of December. NDAA, etc. – Meanwhile, negotiations between the House and Senate continue on the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). A motion to commence the formal conference committee is possible as soon as this week. Committee leaders are hoping to finish remaining work on NDAA before Thanksgiving, with a desire to put it on the House and Senate floors in early December. Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman James Inhofe (R-OK) strongly favors keeping extraneous items out the bill, focusing on troops and fundamental defense needs. President Trump’s expected announcement to reduce troops from Afghanistan and Iraq could complicate final negotiations. We are also watching discussions around the Water Resources Development Act (WRDA) and an energy bill, though we think the former is far more likely to pass in the lame-duck than the latter. WRDA enjoys broad bipartisan support and appears ready for prime time. The energy bill is more complicated: even though discussions are occurring, especially around a series of bipartisan bills that have already cleared House committees, supporters would likely need unanimous consent to pass a final package in the Senate, which could be difficult to obtain. White House – The Trump administration is racing to finalize regulations prior to January 20, 2021. Trade, immigration, environment, health care, and other economic policies are a major focus. There will be enormous pressure on the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs to complete reviews in time for agencies to issue rules in the Federal Register. Also, expect more executive orders on a range of issues, including most prominently on China. The administration has already issued an executive order prohibiting U.S. investment in certain companies with ties to the Chinese military. Expect more along these lines in the coming days. --- ### CGCN Group: Leaders in Tax Policy Advocacy - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/cgcn-group-leaders-in-tax-policy-advocacy/ - Published: 2020-11-12 - Updated: 2020-11-12 Businesses are currently facing unprecedented levels of uncertainty, and a tumultuous Washington is only making it worse. It’s nearly inevitable that attempts to make changes to the tax code are coming, but those changes can still be shaped or stopped by those who cut through the noise to make a compelling case.At CGCN, we believe our elected officials in Washington want to do what’s best for America’s business, but pressures on all sides make this a difficult task. That’s where we come in. We can help you build strategic relationships and employ campaign-style tactics to help you both defend the elements of the tax code that are working and be a part of the conversation to make improvements when opportunities arise. While others may take a wait-and-see approach, we believe in seizing favorable openings by working with a broad spectrum of influential voices including grassroots activists, the press, and rank-and-file members of Congress so that we have a strong base of support before we even approach key Congressional leaders. But make no mistake, we will help you make your case to those at the top. The partners at the CGCN Group have unmatched experience in tax policy and are connected to the highest tax policymakers on Capitol Hill. American businesses provide the livelihood and stability families and communities need to flourish. They drive innovation that makes life better for all of us. They’re the true champions of all of the good things that politicians like to promise. Lawmakers want your business to thrive. Let’s make sure they have the tools they need to make that happen! #### Meet Our Expert Team #### ANTONIA FERRIER Antonia has built her reputation working for some of the most high-profile members of the House and Senate, including then-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and former Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch. She played an instrumental role in the communication and strategic planning for the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and all major tax legislation since 2010. Antonia is one of [The Hill'](https://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/top-lobbyists/529550-the-hills-top-lobbyists-2020)s top 2020 lobbyists. #### SCOTT RIPLINGER Scott brings a decade of tax policy experience to CGCN having most recently worked as Legislative Director for Chairman Mike Crapo who is “poised for [a] starring role in economic, health care policy,” according to [Roll Call](https://www.rollcall.com/2020/11/20/crapo-poised-for-starring-role-in-economic-health-care-policy/). Scott has guided legislative teams for two Senate Finance Committee members that collectively have passed over 100 provisions into law under his leadership. Scott is one of [The Hill'](https://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/top-lobbyists/529550-the-hills-top-lobbyists-2020)s top 2020 lobbyists. #### JOHN STIPICEVIC John understands the inner-workings of the House of Representatives and what it takes to pass or stop any piece of tax legislation. Having served as a top aide to House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy he has worked with every member of the House Ways and Means Committee. In his capacity on the whip team, John helped Ranking Member Kevin Brady as tax priorities were debated and passed on the House floor. John is one of [The Hill'](https://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/top-lobbyists/529550-the-hills-top-lobbyists-2020)s top 2020 lobbyists. --- ### CGCN Weekly Update 11/10 - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/cgcn-weekly-update-11-10/ - Published: 2020-11-10 - Updated: 2020-11-10 Senate – The Senate returns this week, with a focus on nominations, reauthorization of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), COVID-19 relief measures, and extending end-of-year expiring laws. Moreover, Senate Republicans hold their leadership elections Tuesday. Republican leadership is expected to stay the same, with the exception of Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), who will take-over the National Republican Senatorial Committee. On NDAA, the House and Senate Armed Services Committees have largely resolved key differences between the House- and Senate-passed versions of the bill. Leaders of both committees are expected to resolve major policy disagreements and agree to a final product in the coming weeks, with floor votes expected in early December. After failing to reach an agreement on a new COVID-19 relief package before the election, further debate will continue for the remainder of the year. Several CARES Act-related programs and benefits are expiring at the end of the year. The prospects for stimulus legislation will undoubtedly be tied to the runoff elections of Senators David Perdue (R-GA) and Kelly Loeffler (R-GA) on Jan. 5. The outcomes of these races will determine control of the Senate. While Majority Leader McConnell (R-KY) has stated his willingness to advance COVID legislation this year, Senate Republicans continue to insist on targeted and fiscally responsible relief for health care, small businesses, enhanced testing, and liability protections. Absent a stand-alone stimulus package, additional funding for some COVID-19 programs is possible in an end-of-year omnibus spending bill. The continuing resolution keeping the government funded expires on December 11. An agreement on overall spending totals is still needed. House and Senate appropriators have a strong track record of quickly assembling legislative text for floor consideration. Senate Republican appropriators will release text of their proposed FY2021 spending bills this week, which will help spur negotiations. President Trump’s position on a potential omnibus is unclear at the moment. Should talks flounder, another short-term funding extension is possible. House – The House remains in recess this week. Following the election, Democrats currently control 216 seats while Republicans control 196. Twenty-three House seats remain undecided at this time. No incumbent House Republican lost election this year. When all of the House elections come to an end, there is a chance that Republicans hold approximately 210 seats. This would create only a slim Democratic majority. As such, Republicans would look to utilize their leverage and potentially form a governing majority, consisting of a unified Republican minority and a handful of moderate Democrats. House Republicans would then almost certainly be necessary for any must-pass legislation under a Biden Administration. Georgia Senate Runoff – Key dates to follow for Senator Kelly Loeffler (R-GA) and Senator David Perdue’s (R-GA) contests: November 18 - Absentee ballots begin being sent out December 7 - Deadline to register to vote December 14 - Early in-person voting begins January 5 - Election runoff date --- ### CGCN Weekly Update: Key Election & Congressional Dates - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/cgcn-weekly-update-key-election-congressional-dates/ - Published: 2020-11-04 - Updated: 2020-11-04 Key Dates for The Presidency November 3 – Election Day Votes cast on election day are for electors committed to supporting presidential candidates. November 4 through December 14 - States count votes and certify popular vote results. U.S. Code (3 U.S.C. §6) requires state governors to prepare, “as soon as practicable,” documents known as “Certificates of Ascertainment” of the vote. The Certificates of Ascertainment lists all names of electors chosen by votes and the number of votes each elector received in the popular vote. December 8 - “Safe Harbor” deadline. U.S. Code (3 U.S.C. §5) sets the “safe harbor” date six days before the Electoral College vote for states to make a final determination of any controversy or contest concerning the appointment of all or any of the electors. December 14 – Electors vote in their state U.S. Code (3 U.S.C. §7) sets the date for electors to meet and vote on the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December. The electors count the results and sign “Certificates of Votes,” which contain two lists, one for electoral votes for the President, and the second for electoral votes for the Vice President. December 23 – Deadline for Certificates to be delivered to the President of the Senate, et al. U.S. Code (3 U.S.C. §12) sets the deadline for delivery of Certificates of Votes combined with Certificates of Ascertainment to the President of the Senate, the Secretary of State of the respective State, the Archivist of the United States, and to the judge of the district in which the electors shall have assembled. January 6 – Joint session of Congress to count electoral votes and declare election results U.S. Code (3 U.S.C. §15) requires that Congress meet at 1 PM on January 6 following every meeting of the electors to count the electoral votes and declare election results. Members may object, in writing, to any state’s result. The objection must state the grounds for objections and be signed by at least one Senator and one Member of the House of Representatives. Any objection must be approved by both the House and Senate, and, if objections are certified, the contested votes are excluded. January 20 – Presidential Inauguration The 20th Amendment sets the date and time for the start of the new Presidential term on Wednesday, January 20 at 1 PM. Key Dates for Congress November Next Week · Senate to resume session · Senate Republicans to hold leadership elections · Expect[[1]](#_ftn1) Senate Democrats to hold leadership elections November 12, 2020 · House Republicans begin “New Member” orientation November 16, 2020 · House to resume session · House Republican Leadership Candidate forum November 17, 2020 · House Republican leadership elections November 18, 2020 · House Republican Organizing Conference: Conference Rules and Steering Committee Structure · House Democratic leadership elections November 20, 2020 · House Republican to hold Steering “Regional Representative” elections End of November · Expect Leader McConnell (R-KY) to announce Sen. Crapo (R-ID) as the leader of the “Committee on Committees” for the 117th Congress[[2]](#_ftn2) November 30, 2020 · Expiration: Various health care extenders December First Week of December · House Republicans will issue assignments for “A” Committee Chairs or Ranking Members December 11, 2020 · Expiration: Funding for the federal government Mid-December · Senate Democrats expected to announce committee assignments[[3]](#_ftn3) December 31, 2020 · Expiration: CARES Act: Treasury/Fed business, state and local government loan authority · Expiration: CARES Act: Various temporary tax breaks · Expiration: CARES Act: Emergency sick and family leave provisions · Expiration: CARES Act: Pandemic unemployment assistance · Expiration: CARES Act: Medicare sequestration suspension · Expiration: CARES Act: Changes to banking and accounting rules · Expiration: Partial tax extenders · Expiration: General System of Preferences (GSP) January January 4, 2021 · Expected House roll call vote for Speaker of the House[[4]](#_ftn4) · Expected House roll call votes on adopting rules for the 117th Congress[[5]](#_ftn5) · Expected Senate Republicans to announce committee assignments[[6]](#_ftn6) January 5, 2021 · Potential Georgia runoff election for Senate seats · Expect Senate and House Republicans and Democrats submit a resolution to constitute members on committee assignments[[7]](#_ftn7) [[1]](#_ftnref1) Previous elections for Democratic Leadership have been held in the first week the Senate returns to session after the November elections. [[2]](#_ftnref2) Previous announcements were made on November 28, 2018. [[3]](#_ftnref3) Senate Democrats announced committee assignments on December 13, 2018, the day before the Senate adjourned for the year. [[4]](#_ftnref4) Based estimate on votes in previous Congresses. Previous votes for Speaker of the House: January 3, 2019 (116th), January 3, 2017 (115th), January 6, 2015 (114th). [[5]](#_ftnref5) Based estimate off past votes in previous Congresses. Past votes for adopting rules: January 3, 2019 (116th), January 3, 2017 (115th), January 6, 2015 (114th) [[6]](#_ftnref6) Both 115th and 116th committee assignment announcements were made on January 3 of 2017 and 2019, respectively. [[7]](#_ftnref7) Resolutions were submitted and agreed to by unanimous consent within the first week of session. --- ### Advocacy in the Era of Polarization - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/advocacy-in-the-era-of-polarization/ - Published: 2020-10-30 - Updated: 2023-06-23 “Constructive engagement” is a political strategy for polarized times. The idea behind it is that the country has an urgent need to find the political center. For the business community, this means deploying new and innovative means to create bipartisan support for favored policies and programs. That seems, as it should, uncontroversial and commonsensical. But doing so successfully is another matter. If there’s one lesson from recent attempts at constructive engagement, it’s best to avoid alienating your friends while attempting to make new ones. Of course, that’s easier said than done. The Chamber of Commerce, the Beltway’s storied and iconic business trade association, knows that all too well. Seeing an intractably divided country, the Chamber understandably tried to broaden its political appeal by, among other things, recalibrating its voting scorecard. But in the end, it seems no one is happy with the result. This is unfortunate, because these are challenging times. Politics permeates everything, a reality not lost on corporate America, where routine business is no longer routine. Companies experience this most acutely in the shareholder realm. Various interests are growing increasingly sophisticated in using their ownership stakes to drive corporate action on climate change, diversity, equality, and much else. Ignoring these challenges is not in the cards; appropriately and effectively managing them, as many companies are, certainly is. The political forces fueling shareholder resolutions often manifest themselves in the halls of Congress—and vice versa. Businesses approach these challenges based in part on the products they make, how they make them, and who buys them. Some feel perfectly comfortable taking aggressive public stances, others don’t. Moreover, companies belong to trade associations either to reinforce their social and political efforts, or to let the trades take the lead on issues of public concern. Whatever the approach, the goal is to get politicians to support their causes. That means more than simply cosponsoring pro-business legislation; in other words, going beyond just kind words or empty gestures, and actually voting with the business community, on policies that businesses care about. This points to another lesson: don’t get hoodwinked by politicians who self-designate as “problem solvers.” For one thing, implicit in their self-declared status is that those who disagree with them oppose solving problems. This is obviously not conducive to building broad-based coalitions to achieve substantive results. Thus, this contingent works from a position of weakness. And put more bluntly, their putative moral superiority won’t fix any road, repair any bridge, or lower healthcare costs. In divided times, as paradoxical as it may seem, the way to win new friends and allies is to stick to principle, while communicating it in ways that the other side can understand and, just maybe, grudgingly support. This may seem naïve, but in fact, it means presenting your side as united and committed, operating from a position of strength. It will enhance your arguments politically and make them harder to resist. That may mean, at times, finding your own way with other like-minded companies, in a group that can be united, nimble, and effective in achieving public policy goals—all without sacrificing principle. These groups oftentimes work in concert with larger, more established trade associations, to the benefit of both. Together they execute campaigns using a variety of communications, legal, and policy tools. In Washington, this approach is becoming increasingly common, as the digital age collides with populism (in both parties) and the politicization of nearly everything. Heaping praise—or casting aspersions—on politicians can be precisely targeted, with maximum impact, via social media. Those hits get candidates’ attention faster and with far greater effect than a scorecard, an anachronism from a bygone age. To be sure, opposition to the business community is deployed in precisely this way with, in some notable cases, brutal efficiency and success. So as the election results roll in, it’s important to keep in mind that “constructive engagement,” as the term is defined today, is necessary to garner bipartisan support to get things done. Corporate America, after all, wants results, not politics or posturing. But what it can’t mean is turning on your friends. If you do, then the result is predictable: You will end up like the Chamber, living on an island, trusted by no one. --- ### CGCN Weekly Update 10/20 - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/cgcn-weekly-update-10-20/ - Published: 2020-10-20 - Updated: 2020-10-20 Senate – The Senate returns to session this week and will take a standalone vote tomorrow on an amendment providing additional COVID-19 relief funding specifically for the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and second draw loans. Absent a larger agreement, this effort is meant to highlight Republican openness to targeted relief measures. Democratic leaders continue to withhold their support for legislation that fails to meet their demands. On Wednesday, the Senate will vote to proceed to stimulus legislation that would provide more than $500 billion in COVID-19 relief. This includes liability protections, more federally expanded unemployment benefits, funding for PPP, schools, testing, tracing, vaccine development, and vaccine distribution. Essentially, it will be the same legislation Democrats blocked last month – and thus the same outcome is expected this week. Senate Republicans remain committed to restrained federal sending, in contrast to what is being discussed between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Following consideration of COVID-19 response measures, the Senate will turn to confirm Judge Amy Coney Barrett. The Senate Judiciary Committee is expected to approve Judge Barrett’s nomination on Thursday and the full Senate will begin consideration of her nomination on Friday. It is possible that cloture will be filed on Friday. There is then a 30-hour post-cloture period prior to a confirmation vote, which could take place as soon as Monday evening. Other nominations and procedural votes are also possible this week. House – Speaker Pelosi has established tomorrow as a deadline for the Administration to reach a negotiated agreement on a COVID-19 relief package before the election. Many issues remain unresolved and it’s expected that negotiations will have to be restarted after the elections. If a deal were to come together, the White House would still have to lobby for significant support from House and Senate Republicans. Right now, House leaders are largely focused on politics – fundraising and campaigning for individual House races. White House – This week’s major focus will be on Thursday’s presidential debate in Nashville, Tennessee. The final debate is expected to focus on COVID-19, family issues, racial justice, climate policy, national security, and leadership. --- ### CGCN Weekly Update 10/13 - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/cgcn-weekly-update-10-13/ - Published: 2020-10-13 - Updated: 2020-10-13 Senate – Senate Republicans continue to recoil at a potential COVID-19 response package, currently being negotiated in fits and starts between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Last Friday, the White House offered a $1.8 trillion proposal to the Speaker, but it was sharply criticized by Senate Republicans and House Democrats, albeit for different reasons. Secretary Mnuchin clearly wants an agreement, but Senate Republicans remain concerned about the overall spending level and increasing federal deficit. Politically, Republicans are starting to view this package as having the same long-term political risks as the 2008 bailout vote. As expected, days before a national election both parties are trying to score political points which does not support a bipartisan legislative environment. Senate Republicans want the focus of the next few weeks to be on Judge Amy Coney Barrett. Consideration of a COVID-19 response package could not only be used to delay Judge Barrett’s confirmation, but could also prove politically difficult for some members to consider days before the election. The politics of a Supreme Court vacancy make a deal in the next month seem impossible. Judge Amy Coney Barrett's confirmation hearings started today, with opening statements from Judge Barrett and Senate Judiciary Committee members. Tuesday and Wednesday will be dedicated to questions and answers between senators and Judge Barrett. On Thursday, the committee is expected to hear testimony from outside witnesses on Judge Barrett’s fitness to serve on the Supreme Court. The Senate Judiciary Committee is expected to try and vote on Judge Barrett’s confirmation next week in order to set up consideration of her nomination on the Senate floor the following week. As they clearly did yesterday, Democrats, for the most part, will be focused on the Affordable Care Act (aka, Obamacare) and its legal fate, which now hangs in the balance at the Supreme Court. Some Democratic senators pressed Barrett to recuse herself from that case. Moreover, pundits, critics, and voters alike will be watching those committee members on the ballot on November 3rd: Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham (R-SC), Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) and Vice-Presidential nominee, Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA). After a few senators tested positive for COVID last week, the full Senate went into recess; it is expected to reconvene the week of October 19 to consider judicial nominations. House – Speaker Pelosi continues to lambast the Trump Administration’s COVID-19 response offers as insufficient. For his part, President Trump continues to tweet about his support for a COVID deal. Further talks are expected this week. White House – President Trump will be returning to the campaign trail this week following his recovery from COVID-19. He will travel to the battleground states of Florida, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and North Carolina. --- ### CGCN Weekly Update 10/06 - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/cgcn-weekly-update-10-06/ - Published: 2020-10-06 - Updated: 2020-10-06 Senate – Following the news that several Senators tested positive for COVID-19, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) announced that the Senate will only be meeting in pro-forma sessions until October 19. While Senate Democrats have argued that it is not safe for the Senate to move ahead with Judge Amy Coney Barrett’s hearings, Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham (R-SC) is still proceeding with the hearings next week. The first is scheduled for October 12, with additional hearings occurring over the next three to four days. Senate Judiciary Committee members Mike Lee (R-UT) and Thom Tillis (R-NC) announced last week that they had tested positive for COVID-19 and will remain in quarantine. They will likely return to the Senate when the committee is expected to vote on Barrett’s nomination--which will come as soon as October 22. Leader McConnell has said he would bring Barrett’s nomination to the full Senate as soon as the Senate Judiciary Committee’s work is done, which would mean a confirmation vote about a week before Election Day. Negotiations between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on a potential COVID-19 relief package remain in flux. Secretary Mnuchin spoke with President Trump this weekend to provide an update on current discussions. Differences over the topline spending number and various policy issues continue to frustrate negotiations. The White House favors a $1.5 to $1.6 trillion relief package, while Speaker Pelosi is insistent on a higher number, closer to $2.2 trillion, which is what the House approved on a partisan basis last week. Significant policy differences surrounding tax issues, state and local funding, unemployment benefits, and COVID-19 testing remain unresolved. Any final negotiated package will need President Trump’s imprimatur and will potentially require his direct engagement with Congressional Republicans to garner their firm support. House – The House is now out of session until after the election in November. Members could be called back to vote, or conduct proxy voting, on a COVID-19 stimulus package should an agreement be reached. Some remote committee hearings will occur while the House is in recess. White House – President Trump is recovering following his positive COVID-19 diagnosis. Expect members of President Trump's family to try and fill in on the campaign trail this week. The Vice-Presidential debate will occur this Wednesday, October 7. We expect Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) to focus much of her attention on policy and not on personal attacks. Vice President Pence is expected to take a measured and methodical debate stance that focuses on the past successes of the Trump presidency. --- ### CGCN Weekly Update 09/29 - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/cgcn-weekly-update-09-29/ - Published: 2020-09-29 - Updated: 2020-09-29 Senate – Last Saturday, President Trump announced the nomination of Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court to replace the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham (R-SC) has announced that Judge Barrett’s confirmation hearings will begin on October 12. Senate Republicans are aggressively pushing for a final Senate floor vote as soon as the week of October 26. It remains to be seen what tactics Senate Democrats may employ to slow consideration both in committee and on the Senate floor. They could include, among other things, invoking the two-hour rule, motions to recess and adjourn, and objecting to lifting quorum calls. Except for Senate Judiciary Committee members, it is expected that most Senators will leave D.C. at the end of this week and not return until needed for the eventual floor votes on Barrett’s nomination. Meanwhile, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) filed cloture and set up a final vote, which may take place as late as Wednesday, on the House-passed continuing resolution (CR). Funding for the government in the CR would run through December 11. President Trump is expected to sign the CR into law soon after Senate passage. Election results in November will influence funding discussions before the next deadline. If Democrats take control of either the White House or Senate, expect another CR punting final decisions on federal spending levels into 2021. Should Republicans retain the White House or Senate, an omnibus or minibus legislation is likely on the table. Senators will also continue to monitor ongoing discussions between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Should House Democrats elect to pass their new $2.2 trillion relief package at the end of the week (likely on a partisan basis), in good part because of the price tag, but also because it provides funds for, among other things, state and local governments—a red-line that Republicans to date have refused to cross. Thus we expect continued opposition from Senate Republicans to the House bill, as they stand united behind their $650 billion “skinny” COVID-19 relief bill. The debate over Judge Amy Coney Barrett’s nomination to the Supreme Court will be a major focus of Senators leading up to the election which does not create a favorable political environment for large bipartisan agreements. House – From a Republican perspective, there are two efforts currently underway in the House. Last evening, Speaker Pelosi laid out the framework of a new Democratic COVID-19 relief package. As stated above, this most recent legislation is expected to be partisan. Republicans will oppose the legislation, and it remains to be seen if there are 218 votes on the Democratic side of the aisle for the bill. While this whip effort continues apace, there are simultaneous conversations between Speaker Pelosi and Secretary Mnuchin. We will know very soon if the effort to pass this most recent, partisan bill becomes the driving force of the week, or, conversely, if that effort slows and a bipartisan legislating process takes over the attention of the administration and House and Senate leaders. White House – This week, much of the focus for the White House will be on the campaign trail. The first presidential debate is tonight at the Health Education Campus of Case Western Reserve University and the Cleveland Clinic, in Cleveland, Ohio. Expect former Vice-President Biden to heavily emphasize the ongoing COVID-19 crisis and potential threats to the Affordable Care Act. For President Trump his focus could center on law and order, the Supreme Court, as well as health and economic recovery efforts. Neither candidate has a strong track record of staying on script which will make the debate tonight worth watching. The Vice-Presidential debate will take place next week on October 7 at the University of Utah in Salt Lake City. --- ### CGCN Weekly Update 9/15 - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/cgcn-weekly-update-9-15/ - Published: 2020-09-15 - Updated: 2020-09-15 Senate – Last week, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) was able to unite his conference on a new COVID-19 relief package. This gives backing to vulnerable 2020 Senate Republicans and puts the focus back on House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) to develop a response. Unless there are breakthroughs on talks between the Speaker and the White House, Senate Republicans will turn to funding the government and confirming judicial nominees. The length of the expected continuing resolution (CR) remains the most pressing issue for congressional leadership and the Trump Administration. Leader McConnell supports a CR to fund the government into December, which would allow the Trump Administration a seat at the negotiation table for a potential omnibus bill, regardless of the election outcome. Some Congressional Democrats are pushing for the CR to last until next year, with the hopes of a Biden Administration being in place at that time. There is no agreement yet on so-called spending “anomalies” to attach to the CR, but some members are still expected to try and use the CR as an opportunity to pass legislative priorities or extensions of laws that might have broad consensus and support. House – At this point, there have not been any serious discussions about another COVID-19 relief package in the House. While it’s been reported that some moderate members feel it is necessary, this group is not large enough to push leadership back to the negotiating table. Regarding a CR, it appears to be on track as there is no desire for a shutdown right now. But, similar to the Senate, there are still likely to be anomalies, extenders, and “noncontroversial” items attached. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) plans on rolling out a policy agenda to his conference tomorrow morning. Below are the core objectives of the agenda. You can find Leader McCarthy’s memo regarding this plan [here](https://republicanleader.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Member-Memo.pdf). - “Restore Our Way of Life by defeating the virus and keeping America healthy; ensuring the safety and security of all communities; and preserving our freedoms under the Constitution; - Rebuild the Greatest Economy in History by getting America working and adding 10 million new good-paying jobs; ending our dependence on China and enhancing our economic security and upgrading America’s critical infrastructure; - Renew the American Dream by making sure that every child in every neighborhood can attend an excellent school; honoring our veterans’ service to America and hiring our heroes; and supporting our citizens’ success, now and in the future.” Also, the House China Task Force, which has been working with the administration on a final brief regarding China’s handling of COVID-19, is looking to release a full report on October 1. Leader McCarthy’s policy agenda will likely propose that the task force’s recommendations be implemented. We should note that McCarthy and the task force are regularly communicating ideas on China with the White House. White House – The Administration continues to explore the potential for additional executive actions in response to COVID-19 should Congress fail to pass another relief package. --- ### CGCN + UBI Deliver Diversity, Bipartisanship, and Unmatched Expertise - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/cgcn-ubi-delivers-diversity-bipartisanship-and-unmatched-expertise/ - Published: 2020-09-10 - Updated: 2020-09-10 #### IN A WORLD OF PARTISAN GRIDLOCK, SUCCESS IS FOUND THROUGH UNLIKELY ALLIES COMING TOGETHER Many of the major decisions currently being debated in Washington will have a direct impact on families and individuals in the poorest and most overlooked parts of our nation. If your business wants to influence public policy to make life better for these communities, the teams at CGCN Group and United By Interest (UBI) want to work with you! Many people talk about bipartisanship, but we’re known for something better that we like to call “cross-partisanship.” The poorest 100 Congressional districts are heavily represented both by House Freedom Caucus members and Black Congressional Caucus members. While these two groups are often seen as polar opposites, they both care immensely about things like improving local infrastructure, keeping utility bills down, and ensuring that constituents have access to basic banking needs. It’s not about compromise. It’s about building powerful coalitions around the issues that unite us. UBI’s non-traditional approach to coalition-building combined with CGCN’s best-in-class advocacy and communications capabilities mean we’re poised to take on any challenge by approaching it from every available angle. From the grassroots all the way to the most exclusive halls of power, CGCN and UBI will build an integrated strategy to engage the right people to deliver the results you need. --- ### 8.7.20 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/8-7-20-washington-update/ - Published: 2020-08-07 - Updated: 2023-06-23 Negotiations over the next COVID-19 aid package are foundering, as the politics surrounding it are reverting to type. Election Day looms in less than three months. As such, we thought it best to take a step back and view the broader landscape, particularly from the GOP perspective. We noted in previous updates that this package would be the most difficult and complex of federal relief efforts to date. Events of the last several days seem to have confirmed that hunch. The chaos, panic, and uncertainty accompanying the initial COVID-19 outbreak in March conspired to forge relatively swift and amicable bipartisan agreements among House and Senate leaders and the White House. Those days are long gone. After trillions of dollars committed for a whole host of COVID-related (and indeed, unrelated) items and the federal budget drowning in red, to say the GOP rank-and-file are unenthused over the prospect of another trillion-plus package vastly understates Republican sentiment. And for this and many other reasons, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Republican leaders never have had much negotiating leverage. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) has the leverage or thinks she does. And as such, she has refused to budge from her position. The White House position has never been firm or fully spelled out. Simply put, they are not in unison, which plays to the Speaker’s hand. Of course, as yet, that hasn’t mattered much, because negotiations between Speaker Pelosi (D-CA), Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), and the White House haven’t yielded even a preliminary framework of ideas and policies to work from—just a few terse exchanges over the amount, and duration of, extending unemployment insurance. In our view, one could plausibly argue, from the narrow political perspective of Senate GOP politics, that this bodes well for McConnell. He has not stepped into the void between the White House and Democrats. He has said the White House should be leading negotiations, because the President signs the bill into law. This ironically leaves him in a good place with a lot of his conference, but the lack of an outcome could hurt his members who are up for reelection. Consider his conference dynamics. As has been (accurately) reported, about half of Senate Republicans are uninterested or adamantly against passing another COVID-package, owing to hostility from their bases to more government spending, especially for Blue states; frustration that hundreds of billions of authorized dollars haven’t been spent; and a sense that the economy, albeit slowly and haltingly, is recovering (the jobs number tomorrow will be crucial). Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) has slammed the new relief package saying, “Why would the Florida taxpayer now have to subsidize Illinois’ pension plan? Florida taxpayers are going to pay for Cuomo’s excesses.” Yet all the same, there are several Senate Republicans (e.g., Gardner, Ernst, Collins, Tillis) facing tough re-elections for whom additional COVID-19 stimulus would provide some degree of inoculation against their opponents, whose strong poll numbers reflect in part the COVID-wracked economy. As is evident, the balancing act appears next to impossible, though it has been said, and quite rightly, that if anyone could pull it off, McConnell can. But with a fractious conference and conservative base (and we haven’t even touched on the House Republican conference yet), and Pelosi and Schumer who seem politically confident in the face of aimless negotiations, the path to a deal for McConnell and the White House—well, one might reasonably argue, there’s really no path at all. A comment from Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) recently caught our eye. Cornyn, who’s up for re-election in November, said that “if [a bill] is going to be passed with mainly Democratic votes, it is going to be mainly a Democratic bill.” In the same vein, White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows said yesterday that, to the extent there have been concessions thus far, they have come from him and his sparring partner, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. It’s not hard to see Republicans in the “no” camp digging in their heels upon hearing this news. And what of the red line on liability protection? From what we’ve heard, and contrary to some reports, President Trump is insistent that it must be part of a final package. But Pelosi continues to say, as she did a few days ago, that she wants nothing to do with it; Schumer savaged it as a “radical change of all liability law.” Certainly, a Republican conference disinclined to support a bill will be even less so if liability isn’t part of a final package. Can McConnell and President Trump? Would McConnell even schedule a vote on the Senate floor for a deal that not one Republican Senator negotiated? Make no mistake: we’re not coldly predicting complete collapse, just trying to sketch the significant political obstacles to a deal. There is enough imagination on all sides, we suppose, to pull rabbits from many different hats. Could some type of relief ride on the continuing resolution in September? Possibly, though one can easily understand how dicey that prospect becomes after a moment’s reflection. Do Republicans want uncertainty over a CR and possible shutdown over COVID-19 relief? We suspect that even if there is a deal in the next two weeks, additional COVID-19 issues could inevitably factor into CR discussions. What about President Trump? He certainly is viewed as the proverbial wildcard in these negotiations, a president who is fighting for his political life. Could he decide at any point to break with congressional Republicans and cut his own deal, in the hope of forcing them to support a package he deems necessary for his political survival, and theirs? Congressional Republicans could tell Meadows and Mnuchin no deal, but standing up to Trump is another story. Anything’s possible in this environment, but we doubt it. Factoring into this assessment is the singular leverage that Trump has: the full weight of the federal government at his beck and call. This is precisely why, sensing that no deal is at hand, the Administration is crafting unilateral actions that Trump can take to address evictions, unemployment insurance, and whatever else he thinks worthy. In the end, this may be the best outcome for Republicans. They can blame Pelosi and Schumer for “playing politics” with people’s lives, pin the failure to pass legislation on them, and then praise Trump for saving the day with an executive order—one that, we should note, relies on unspent funds authorized in previous COVID-19 packages. Trump voters stay happy, McConnell is out of a jam, and rank-and-file members can avoid the wrath of their bases. This is a plausible outcome. Though again, we don’t want to go on record saying no deal can emerge. As the roiling waters of 2020 have taught us, don’t make hard-and-fast predictions about the world—especially during a pandemic. In a time of genuine crisis for the country, it’s no surprise that, in this highly polarized era, the parties are retreating to default positions. Both parties have radically different visions for governing the country—there’s very little, if any, room for compromise. They view control of the White House and Senate as decisively determining the future course of the country’s culture, economy, and sense of itself. With so much at stake, expect a rough ride in the months to come. --- ### 7.24.20 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/7-24-20/ - Published: 2020-07-24 - Updated: 2023-06-23 Next COVID-19 Package Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and his Republican colleagues continue to discuss appropriate response policies and their strategy before unveiling legislation, which will serve as a starting point for negotiations. Leader McConnell is trying to keep the cost of this next COVID relief package as close to $1 trillion as possible. Discussions amongst Republicans are still occurring so the total cost of the initial Senate Republican proposal is still evolving. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) continues to push for a much larger $4 trillion bill. We expect the final price tag to fall between the bookends. Following discussions with the administration, there is growing consensus to propose extending enhanced unemployment benefits, additional direct payments to the public, funding for schools, liability protections, business reimbursement for personal protective equipment, enhanced employee retention tax credit, a targeted second round of the Paycheck Protection Program, funding for COVID-19 testing as well for health care providers, and several other economic stimulus measures. Republican senators who will be integrally involved include Senators Shelby (AL), Alexander (TN), Blunt (MO), Cornyn (TX), Rubio (FL), Grassley (IA), Wicker (MS), Thune (SD), and Crapo (ID). Senators declaring opposition to advancing COVID legislation will have substantially less, if any, influence in changing the bill. The fulcrum of the debate will likely turn on liability protection, enhanced unemployment benefits, and state and local funding assistance. Democrats, while open to the idea of liability protection, could still fight to limit its scope, while Republicans are expected to oppose unemployment benefits that discourage recipients from returning to work. It’s worth noting that the US Department of Justice provided technical drafting assistance to, and legal/Constitutional guidance on the liability provisions. Enhanced unemployment benefits continue to be a redline issue for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Leader Schumer while many Republicans view the benefits as a deterrence to having workers return to work. Attorney General Bill Barr and his team have been, and will continue to be, involved in liability negotiations. McConnell’s ability to defend liability protection stands in direct proportion to rank-and-file Republican support for the overall package; that is, the more conference support McConnell gets, the greater his leverage to keep a robust liability section in the final bill. Of course, don’t forget the obverse: His trouble delivering “yes” votes will weaken his ability to protect the liability shield. We anticipate Schumer and Pelosi will oppose, and attempt to weaken, liability language, while fighting for higher funding levels, principally for states and localities. Leader McConnell has also been working closely and coordinating with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA). House Republicans remain laser-focused on COVID issues relating to China (note: House leadership convened various China task forces last month), and proposals in this vein may be broached in future talks. 2020: Key Dates and Deadlines The following is a comprehensive list of important dates and deadlines that will drive congressional and presidential actions for the remainder of the year. Date Action(s) July 25, 2020 Expiration: CARES Act: suspension of eviction for federally backed properties July 31, 2020 Expiration: CARES Act: $600-per-week federal pandemic unemployment benefits Aug 8, 2020 Application deadline: CARES Act: Paycheck Protection Program borrowers Week of Aug 17, 2020 Democratic National Convention Week of Aug 24, 2020 Republican National Convention Aug 31, 2020 Expiration: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s single-family moratorium on foreclosures and evictions Sept 29, 2020 First presidential debate Sept 30, 2020 Expiration: federal government fiscal year funding Expiration: National Flood Insurance Program Expiration: Fixing America’s Surface Transportation (FAST) Act Expiration: CARES Act: student loan repayment and interest accrual suspension Oct 7, 2020 Vice presidential debate Oct 15, 2020 Second presidential debate Oct 22, 2020 Third presidential debate Nov 3, 2020 Election day Nov 30, 2020 Expiration: various health care extenders Dec 31, 2020 Expiration: CARES Act: Treasury/Fed business, state and local government loan authority Expiration: CARES Act: various temporary tax breaks Expiration: CARES Act: emergency sick and family leave programs Expiration: CARES Act: pandemic unemployment assistance Expiration: CARES Act: Medicare sequestration suspension Expiration: CARES Act: changes to banking and accounting rules Expiration: partial tax extenders Expiration: General System of Preferences (GSP) Appropriations Next week, the House will take up its second minibus appropriations package, which includes the Defense, Commerce, Justice, Science; Energy and Water; Financial Services and General Government; Homeland Security; Labor, Health and Human Services Education; and Transportation, Housing, and Urban Development spending bills. The House Rules Committee amendment filing deadline is 4:30 pm today. After next week, the House will have passed all spending measures except for that covering Legislative Branch appropriations. At this time, we still do not anticipate Senate appropriators reaching any agreement to consider any standalone appropriations legislation. Therefore, come September, we expect a short-term continuing resolution for all 12 appropriations bills, likely extending past Election Day, possibly into early December. --- ### 6.11.2020 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/6-11-2020-washington-update/ - Published: 2020-07-17 - Updated: 2023-06-23 ###### Policing Reform In the wake of the killing of George Floyd, both the House and Senate are working on policing reform proposals. It is too early to say whether both chambers and the White House can agree on legislation, but work is proceeding in earnest. Democrats earlier this week introduced the “Justice in Policing Act.” The legislation takes steps to end racial profiling, ban chokeholds and no-knock warrants, limit the use of military equipment by local law enforcement, and require that body cameras be worn by police. It would also make it easier to prosecute offending officers by amending the federal criminal statute to prosecute police misconduct and would reform qualified immunity for law enforcement. It also promotes new investigations in police misconduct, provides grants for community-based organizations to create task forces to reform public safety approaches, creates training programs, collect new data on police misconduct, make lynching a federal crime, and establishes new law enforcement accreditation standards. The House Judiciary Committee will hold a hearing on the Justice in Policing Act and then markup the legislation. The plan then is for the full House to return June 25 and June 26 to vote on the legislation. House Judiciary Committee Ranking Member Jim Jordan (R-OH) is working on a House Republican package that is expected to be released this week. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) is prepared to engage on the issue. Notably, Leader McCarthy has a very strong working relationship with Representative Karen Bass (D-CA), who is chair of the Congressional Black Caucus, dating back to their time as colleagues in the California State Assembly more than a decade ago. Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) has taken the lead in developing a Senate Republican package. Senators Lindsey Graham (R-SC), John Cornyn (R-TX), Shelly Moore Capito (R-WV), Ben Sasse (R-NE) and James Lankford (R-OK) are working with him. White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows and Senior Advisor Jared Kushner are working with Sen. Scott as well. Thus far, the focus of the working group has centered around making lynching a federal crime, pushing states to report police use of force, expanding data collection on no-knock search warrants, providing incentives to recruit diverse officers, providing funding for body cameras, and creating a new criminal justice commission. The goal is to produce legislation by the end of the week. The Justice in Policing Act is backed by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), who are calling on Senate Republican leaders to take up the legislation after passage in the House. It’s unclear whether Senate Democratic and Republican members can negotiate a bipartisan agreement after all proposals are made public. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) has introduced a Senate resolution calling for justice for George Floyd and also opposing efforts to defund the police. Majority Leader McConnell is a co-sponsor of the resolution; Cotton wants to pass the resolution by unanimous consent today. Finally, the Senate Judiciary Committee is planning a hearing on police use of force and community relations next Tuesday. We expect police reform policies will also be debated during consideration of the Commerce-Justice-Science appropriations bills as well as on the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). ###### NDAA and Appropriations The Senate Armed Services Committee is marking up its version of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) today. Following the markup, the legislative text of the bill is expected to be made public. The full Senate could take up the measure during the week of June 22. We expect an open amendment process for the bill. The House Armed Services Committee will begin subcommittee markups June 22 and June 23. A full committee markup will be on July 1. The Senate Appropriations Committee is expected to begin markups the week of June 22. The House is currently planning to conduct subcommittee and full committee markups during the weeks of July 6 and July 13. House floor consideration of appropriations bills are likely to be the weeks of July 20 and July 27 and will likely move as two “minibuses,” with Labor-HHS and Defense wrapped into one of the packages. Given the late start of the appropriations process, we still expect a short-term continuing resolution at the end of September to punt any potential bicameral agreements into the lame-duck session of Congress. ###### Surface Transportation House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee Chairman Peter DeFazio (D-OR) released a surface transportation infrastructure bill as opposed to a broader package that has been discussed. It is slated to be marked up on June 17 and be considered on the floor of the House in July. Due to controversial climate provisions, moving the bill through the process will likely be a partisan exercise. Senate Environment and Public Works Committee Chairman John Barrasso (R-WY) has said that the House bill is nowhere close to a workable bipartisan proposal and he continues to advocate for his legislation which still requires additional legislative provisions from the Senate Commerce, Senate Banking and Senate Finance Committees. ###### ###### CGCN Group specializes in helping companies navigate the rigorous oversight of federal regulators and policymakers on Capitol Hill. We are here to promote your case to those who matter in Washington D.C. [Contact us](https://www.cgcn.com/contact/) to learn how we can help you! --- ### 7.16.2020 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/7-16-2020-washington-update/ - Published: 2020-07-16 - Updated: 2023-06-23 Next COVID-19 Package The House and Senate will return to session next week with the expectation that discussions will begin in earnest on the next COVID-19 response legislation. We expect that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) will share the outline of his legislative proposal with the Senate Republican conference next week, with the goal of trying to secure support from his colleagues. Leader McConnell’s objective is a package tailored to COVID-19 related issues, with a specific focus on providing federal resources for children, employment growth, small business assistance, health care resources, and liability protections. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) has spoken multiple times over the last couple of days to Leader McConnell, ensuring that House Republicans are in sync with the Senate’s efforts. Leaders McConnell and McCarthy also have had direct contact with the administration, as well as with Senate chairmen and House ranking members. It is expected that White House Chief of Staff, Mark Meadows, will play a major role in future negations as well as Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. We anticipate that, unlike previous COVID bills that received unanimous votes, the final vote on this package may lose support from some more hard-lined members—on both sides of the aisle. Members who are likely to support an overall package are more likely to have their priorities considered during negotiations. Here are just a few of the issues that may be discussed in the coming weeks. - Liability Protections – Leader McConnell and Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) continue to keep a close hold on their proposed language. There is an expectation that the initial proposal may have liability protections for several years for businesses, schools, and non-profits that attempt to comply with COVID-19 related health guidance. - Individual Stimulus Payments – Several Republicans and Democrats have expressed support for additional payments to individuals. There may be an effort to limit future payments to a lower income threshold than was in the original CARES Act. - State and Local Funding – State and local leaders have called for between $500 billion and $1 trillion in new federal assistance. - Health Care Funding – The focus could be on expanding the use of telehealth and additional funding for testing and health providers. - School Aid – Federal funding may be provided for schools that reopen and adhere to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidelines. - Small Business Assistance – In addition to including more resources for the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), there may be efforts to repurpose existing PPP funds with the goal of helping more underserved communities. There will also likely be debate about potentially increasing loan forgiveness for previous PPP borrowers. - Tax Incentives – Employee Retention Tax Credit (ERTC) modifications, business deduction of personal protection equipment, capital gains holiday, and accelerated tax breaks are priorities for some members and the administration. - Unemployment Benefits / Return to Work Bonus / Rehiring Tax Credit / Hazard Pay - Direct Assistance for Certain Hardest-Hit Industries - Additional Food Security Assistance House Agenda The House is expected to spend the first half of next week on the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). Following consideration of the NDAA, the House is then expected to consider the Great American Outdoors Act, which has cleared the Senate. At the end of the week, the House will vote on the first of two appropriations packages. The first minibus package will consist of Agriculture, Interior-Environment, Military Construction-Veterans Affairs, and State-Foreign Operations funding bills. The following week, the House is also expected to process a second minibus appropriations package, in addition to considering H.R. 7575, the Water Resources Development Act. Finally, the House is expected to stay in session in order to pass any final negotiated economic recovery package, assuming progress in negotiations. Senate Filibuster Rule As we mentioned in our previous memo, momentum is growing among the Democrats to change the Senate’s legislative filibuster rule. This week, former Vice President Joe Biden signaled his potential endorsement of changing the current 60-vote threshold by stating, “It’s going to depend on how obstreperous they [Republicans] become.” Senate Democratic Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL) has secured Biden’s and Senate Majority Leader Schumer’s (D-NY) pledge to put immigration reform first in the cue if Democrats take control of the Senate and White House. This may be the first test-case for those favoring the elimination of the filibuster. ###### CGCN Group specializes in helping companies navigate the rigorous oversight of federal regulators and policymakers on Capitol Hill. We are here to promote your case to those who matter in Washington D.C. [Contact us](https://www.cgcn.com/contact/) to learn how we can help you! --- ### 7.2.2020 Washington Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/7-2-2020-washington-update/ - Published: 2020-07-02 - Updated: 2023-06-23 July Forecast When the Senate returns from a two-week break in mid-July, the remaining weeks before the August recess will be very busy. The Senate will remain focused on nominations and commence negotiations on the next COVID-19 aid package. As to the latter, the list of issues in the mix includes unemployment and “re-hiring” benefits, state and local funding, additional individual stimulus payments, small business assistance, and liability protections. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), along with many of the GOP rank-and-file, wants to keep the price tag as low as possible. McConnell has repeatedly said that a new COVID bill should focus on “kids, jobs and health care.” Last night, the Senate unanimously extended the PPP application period, a move that could very well help him constrain the size of the next bill. Many Senate Republicans are concerned about another package ballooning in size, cost, and scope. Other issues on the table: tax policies, China-related measures, education, and child care. The Trump Administration is monitoring the results of past relief efforts. In this vein, it might advocate for additional, though targeted, relief for certain industries that have been especially hard-hit by the pandemic. The White House wants the effort focused on putting people back to work. House appropriators will be busy this month. Subcommittee markups of State and Foreign Operations, Agriculture, and Military Construction and Veterans Affairs will begin on July 6. On July 7, Homeland Security, Interior and Environment, Legislative Branch, Energy and Water, and Labor, Health and Human Services, and Education will be considered; and on July 8, Commerce, Justice, Science, Transportation and Housing and Urban Affairs, Financial Services and General Government, and Defense. Once disposed of by the full committee, we anticipate several bills being combined into discrete minibuses for more efficient debate on the House floor. Yesterday, the House Armed Services Committee began its markup of its NDAA. We expect the full House to take up NDAA in the coming weeks. Filibuster Reform Looking ahead to next Congress, we expect a significant debate on changing the Senate’s 60-vote filibuster threshold on legislation if the Democrats take the chamber in November. If there’s any doubt about where the Democrats will end up, consider this from Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE), who last week emphatically stated, “I will not stand idly by for four years and watch the Biden administration’s initiatives blocked at every turn. I am gonna try really hard to find a path forward that doesn’t require removing what’s left of the structural guardrails, but if there’s a Biden administration, it will be inheriting a mess, at home and abroad. It requires urgent and effective action.” This is significant because Sen. Coons had previously been a defender of current filibuster rules and this demonstrates the political pressures to make changes. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) publicly stated that he would oppose any efforts to change filibuster rules. Leader McConnell has warned Democrats about the boomerang effect of scrapping the filibuster. “Any time you start fiddling around with the rules of the Senate,” he said this week, “I think you always need to put yourself in the other fellow’s shoes and just imagine what might happen when the winds shift.” China The House Republican China Task Force has been very active this week. Republican members spent a significant amount of time at the White House Monday, with Administration officials discussing potential actions to take against China. Members also meet with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo this morning. Taskforce members are expected to introduce and push for consideration of standalone China legislation this summer and fall, with the expectation of a final report being released before October. --- ### 6.25.2020 Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/6-25-2020-update/ - Published: 2020-06-25 - Updated: 2023-06-23 Policing Reform Sen. Tim Scott’s (R-SC) “JUSTICE Act” failed to receive the necessary 60 votes needed for cloture on the motion to proceed to the bill. The question for many is what happens next. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) changed his vote and moved to reconsider the bill so that the legislation could be brought up again without the mandatory two-days wait. Sen. Scott stated bluntly before the vote, “if they (Senate Democrats) won’t even start it, that tells me that this is already over.” Senate Democratic members insist on negotiating legislation before it reaches the floor. Some policing reform issues could arise during consideration of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which the Senate will move to debate next week, or on appropriations legislation. The House will pass the “Justice in Policing Act” today. Qualified immunity continues to be a major issue for both parties. House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and the Republican conference believe that without qualified immunity, good officers could face a barrage of unwarranted lawsuits that will undermine safety. NDAA The Senate will now turn to the NDAA. [Text of the bill](https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/S4049%20-%20FY%202021%20NDAA.pdf) was released Tuesday night. Leader McConnell has filed cloture on the motion to proceed. Amendments are being sent to the Senate Armed Services Committee for review and discussions on a potential manager’s package are already underway. We expect various attempts to attach extraneous issues, given that the NDAA is one of only a handful of bills every year to become law. One such is more stringent regulation of perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances, or PFAS, which has become a flashpoint in the NDAA debate. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is eyeing PFAS as part of the manager’s package, and Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), and possibly others, could seek PFAS amendments on the floor. Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Jim Inhofe (R-OK) is working hand-in-glove with Senate Environment and Public Works Committee Chairman John Barrasso (R-WY) to flag, and oppose, PFAS and other similar environmental amendments. The House Armed Service Committee has released baseline text of their version of NDAA and plans on having their full committee markup on July 1. Given the difficulty of voting on amendments on the House floor during the COVID-19 outbreak, expect more effort to address member priorities either through the committee process or larger en bloc amendments on the floor. Appropriations It’s becoming more likely that major spending fights will befall Congress this fall. Appropriations work has already been significantly impacted by COVID-19 response efforts and now Senate appropriators are locked in a partisan debate over additional COVID-19 aid and social justice and policing reforms. Senate Republicans want to keep the so-called ‘Shelby-Leahy agreement’ from last year, which aimed to prevent authorization language on appropriations bills at the committee level or “poison pill” provisions that could complicate floor consideration. Senate Democratic members now want to remove those constraints, seeking to broaden the scope of legitimate federal spending issues. Nonetheless, Democrats say Senate Republicans have the majority in committee and thus they can easily block amendments they deem contrary to last year’s agreement. House Democratic members will soon begin an aggressive appropriations markup schedule, moving legislation that will undoubtedly draw veto threats from President Trump. Coupled with problems in the Senate, this could lead to a major spending showdown at the end of the year. This increasingly tenuous situation could induce rumblings of a continuing resolution (CR), lasting until November or December. Depending on the election outcome, we could then see a CR possibly extending well into next year. Note that even the debate over a short-term CR could lead to stalemate and mutual recriminations of blame over an impending government shutdown. In any case, this debate is starting to simmer, so stay tuned. --- ### 6.18.2020 Update - URL: https://cgcn.com/issues/6-18-2020-update/ - Published: 2020-06-18 - Updated: 2023-06-23 ###### Policing Reform Senator Tim Scott (R-SC), with Senate Republican leadership, released the “JUSTICE Act” to address policing reform. Among other provisions, the bill incentivizes local police departments to ban the practice of chokehold, promote diverse police recruitment, increase greater use of body cameras, improves disclosure of police employment records, and makes lynching a federal crime. It would also reauthorize the Byrne/JAG and COPS programs for 5 years and develop best practices for policing tactics. Republicans in the Senate and the House are expected to enthusiastically endorse Sen. Scott’s proposal. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) announced that the Senate will consider the bill next week. Now that the Senate Republican bill has been released, we will see if bipartisan discussions can commence. Of note, 60 votes will be needed to begin consideration of the legislation. We expect Senate Democrats to vote to get on the legislation, but that does not mean the legislation will pass. We expect a robust debate and a fight over amendments. In response to the Senate Republican bill, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) said, “We don’t need a window-dressing, toothless bill.” As of right now, the politics on this issue remain very partisan. Following today’s markup of the “Justice in Policing Act” in the House Judiciary Committee, House Democratic leadership still plans to bring back members for a vote on the bill next week. Rep. Pete Stauber (R-MN), a former police officer, who has coordinated and consulted regularly with Sen. Scott, is taking a leading position on policing reform for House Republicans. COVID Package & Liability Protection Senate Republicans continue to be in no rush to begin negotiations on the next COVID-relief package. With the economy on the upswing and a busy Senate schedule (policing reform, NDAA, nominations) over the next several weeks, we expect bipartisan discussions to begin in earnest after the July 4th recess. Of note, funds for the Paycheck Protection Program will remain available for the foreseeable future and the Federal Reserve’s Main Street Lending Program just started this week. Leader McConnell and Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) continue working with fellow Senate Republicans on any outstanding concerns. They are keeping close-hold on the draft bill, owing to sensitivity against overshadowing work on police reforms and the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). At this stage, we believe discussions could center on a compromise between the GOP priority of liability protection (which, notably, is something colleges and universities want) and funding for state and local governments, a top concern of Democrats. As to the substance of the broader COVID-bill, it’s anyone’s guess, as members of all stripes are floating clean-energy grants, employment bonuses, and a payroll tax cut. Generally speaking, in the face of a V-shaped economic recovery, Republicans want to keep the next bill’s focus tight and its price-tag low. NDAA and Appropriations Text of the Senate NDAA is expected to be released soon and, as noted earlier, timing on floor consideration is still in flux due to policing reform legislation jumping it in the cue. Amendment drafts are already being sent to the Senate Armed Services Committee for consideration. Non-germane amendments will be sent to the committees of jurisdiction for vetting. Members will be trying to get their priorities in an amendment package—and we’re hearing there might be more than one. Senate Appropriations Committee is still trying to begin markups of Fiscal Year 2021 funding bills. Several appropriations subcommittee chairmen and ranking members are expected to agree to bypass subcommittee considerations and move to full committee markups. It is unlikely all subcommittee bills will be marked up in the committee before the next recess starts. ---